Middle East Gulf producers excluding Iran exported about 16.5 million barrels of crude a day in September as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other exporters adapted routes around the Strait of Hormuz, while a U.S. blockade has kept Iranian exports near a standstill.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Middle East Gulf crude exports have recovered to levels seen before the Iran war despite continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, as regional producers increasingly bypass the strategic waterway while Iran itself remains largely cut off from the export recovery.
At least 16.5 million barrels of crude per day left the Gulf region between Sept. 1 and Sept. 28, excluding Iran, matching the prewar average for those producers, according to tanker tracking and satellite analysis published by global trade-data firm Kpler. The September total was approximately 10.5 million barrels per day above the March average, the first full month after the war sharply disrupted shipping through Hormuz.
The recovery has not been driven by a return to the same shipping system that existed before fighting began Feb. 28. Instead, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other producers have spent the past seven months rerouting oil through pipelines, alternative terminals and offshore tanker transfers that reduce their dependence on the strait.
Before the war, approximately 83% of the region’s crude exports passed through Hormuz, Kpler found. By September, about 40% of Gulf crude was leaving the region without crossing the strait at all, compared with roughly 17% before the conflict. Saudi Arabia increased use of its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, while the UAE expanded flows through the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
Saudi Red Sea loadings rose from about 750,000 barrels per day before the war to as much as 4.3 million barrels per day in June, according to Kpler. UAE loadings through Fujairah increased from approximately 1.1 million to 2.7 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia led confirmed September crude exports with at least 5.1 million barrels per day, followed by the UAE at 3.2 million and Iraq at 2.6 million.
Oil that continues moving through Hormuz is also traveling differently. Kpler found that more than 70% of crude crossing the strait in August was transferred to another tanker offshore near Fujairah or Sohar. The system has made regional exports more difficult to track using conventional vessel signals, requiring satellite imagery, vessel draft measurements and other data to reconstruct cargo movements.
Iran, however, has not shared in its neighbors’ recovery.
Iranian crude exports have remained near zero since the United States reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports in July following the collapse of a temporary ceasefire arrangement. When Iranian volumes are included, regional crude exports remain below their full prewar level. Associated Press reporting at the time confirmed that U.S. forces reinstated the blockade as fighting and attacks on commercial shipping resumed.
The uneven recovery represents a significant shift from the early months of the conflict, when disruption of Hormuz sharply reduced exports from producers throughout the Gulf.
Tehran had used the threat of restricting traffic through the waterway as economic leverage because of its central role in international energy markets. But the growing use of alternative export routes has reduced the degree to which Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other producers depend exclusively on Hormuz for crude shipments.
Some producers remain more exposed. Kuwait, Qatar and most of Iraq lack equivalent pipeline routes around the strait and have had to restore more of their exports through Hormuz itself.
Iran faces a different problem because its primary export infrastructure remains subject to the U.S. blockade.
Iran had continued relying on oil sales, particularly shipments to China, as a major source of foreign revenue during the early months of the conflict. Washington initially imposed a blockade in April before temporarily easing restrictions under a June 17 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran.
A temporary U.S. oil waiver allowed Iranian crude exports to rebound to approximately 1.1 million barrels per day during that period, according to the shipping data. The waiver was subsequently withdrawn and the blockade restored in July after the ceasefire arrangement collapsed.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that Iran was still receiving revenue from oil already at sea but predicted that the remaining shipments would soon run out. In an appearance on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures”, Bessent said approximately 15 million barrels remained in transit, with most headed toward China. Fox separately reported the same estimate from the Treasury secretary.
“They will have nothing to trade for anything, probably within the next two weeks,” Bessent said.
The Trump administration has increasingly portrayed the decline in Iranian oil revenue as one of the primary sources of economic pressure on Tehran.
President Donald Trump said last weekend that Iran’s economic situation had played a role in its decision to propose reopening the Strait of Hormuz during indirect negotiations held around the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
Iranian officials offered a proposal, transmitted through Qatari mediators, under which the strait could reopen and regional hostilities could be halted within days. Trump rejected the proposal.
“I rejected their deal. They want to make a deal where they open the strait immediately because they’re losing so badly,” Trump told reporters at the White House. Reuters and NBC reporting confirmed that Iran had proposed reopening the waterway as part of a broader effort to end the fighting.
Trump has since escalated his rhetoric toward Tehran. Speaking to reporters Thursday before departing the White House, he said Iran would “either sign a very fair deal, or they won’t exist any longer,” according to reporting on his remarks.
Trump made the statement after describing Iran’s economy and military position and asserting that the United States now controls access through the strait. A transcript of his remarks confirms the statement.
The president had previously argued that Tehran’s decision to restrict Hormuz had ultimately damaged Iran more than its neighbors because other Gulf exporters found alternative routes while Iranian exports remained blocked.
“What they wanted is to immediately open the Hormuz Strait. You know why? Because they’re dying. You know why they’re dying? Because they have no money coming in because they get their money from the Hormuz Strait,” Trump said.
“They outsmarted themselves. They said, ‘Let’s close it and cause a problem for the world.’ And I came along, and we put up the greatest blockade ever in military history.”
Those statements represent Trump’s assessment of Iran’s economic condition and the effectiveness of U.S. policy. The available shipping data independently show a stark divergence between Iranian exports and those of neighboring Gulf producers, but do not by themselves establish the broader political conclusions Trump has drawn from the figures.
The pressure extends beyond Iranian ports.
Approximately 20 Iranian or Iran-linked tankers have been stranded near Sri Lanka and Malaysia as the United States seeks to disrupt the network that previously carried sanctioned crude toward China, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Many of the vessels are empty after completing earlier deliveries but cannot readily return to Iran because of the blockade. Some are running low on food, fresh water, fuel and other supplies, while local companies have become increasingly reluctant to service them because of the risk of U.S. sanctions, the Journal reported.
American officials have also pressed governments and service providers in the region not to assist sanctioned Iranian vessels. That has complicated Iran’s ability to maintain the so-called shadow fleet it has historically used to move oil outside conventional Western shipping and financial systems.
The maritime effort is part of the broader economic campaign the administration calls Operation Economic Outcast.
Bessent announced the initiative Aug. 24, saying the United States intended to target Iran’s economic “enablers,” including foreign entities involved in purchasing Iranian petroleum, facilitating financial transactions or supporting Iran’s shadow shipping network.
The Treasury campaign has since included sanctions targeting dozens of people, companies and vessels, along with pressure on foreign financial institutions accused of handling Iranian transactions.
Just the News reported that the administration’s measures included sanctions against nearly 60 entities, vessels and individuals and actions involving financial institutions accused of facilitating billions of dollars in Iranian transactions.
Washington has also sought to broaden the pressure beyond petroleum by targeting sectors and networks involving shipping, precious metals and digital assets, with the stated goal of limiting Tehran’s ability to obtain foreign currency or circumvent existing restrictions.
The policy followed Trump’s warning that governments providing Iran with financial or commercial assistance could face U.S. consequences and came amid growing pressure from Washington on countries that had continued doing business with Tehran.
The UAE had separately suspended trade and financial transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of launching a missile toward Emirati territory during the conflict.
The rebound in Gulf crude shipments does not mean the wider energy disruption has ended. Global diesel and other refined-fuel markets remain tight, shipping through Hormuz continues to carry elevated security risks and attacks on vessels have persisted.
But the September crude figures demonstrate how substantially the physical export network has changed since the first weeks of the war.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expanded routes that bypass Hormuz, while producers still dependent on the strait have developed new shipping practices to move crude through it. Kpler found that confirmed Saudi crude crossing Hormuz increased from approximately 700,000 barrels per day in August to 2.8 million barrels per day in September, even as substantial volumes continued moving west through the Red Sea.
Asian buyers have remained the dominant destination. Asia received approximately 84% of the region’s crude in August, only slightly below the 87% share recorded before the war, while India’s imports of Middle Eastern crude returned to approximately 3 million barrels per day in September.
For Iran, the same adaptation has not occurred. Its neighbors now possess a combination of pipeline routes, alternate ports and improvised tanker networks that have restored much of their crude trade, while Iranian ports remain constrained by the American blockade and its overseas tanker fleet faces increasing difficulty obtaining support.
That divergence is changing the economic balance surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Seven months after the conflict sharply reduced Gulf oil exports, the region excluding Iran has restored its prewar crude volumes — but increasingly without relying on the single maritime choke point that gave Tehran much of its leverage at the start of the war.
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