Beijing, January 23, 2026 – Chinese authorities reported a youth unemployment rate of 16.5% for non-student individuals aged 16-24 in December 2025, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. However, experts argue that these statistics fail to capture the true extent of joblessness, particularly among rural and migrant workers, amid a deepening economic downturn.
The National Bureau of Statistics released the data on January 22, showing the 16-24 age group unemployment rate dropped 0.4 percentage points from November, reaching 16.5%. For those aged 25-29, the rate fell 0.3 points to 6.9%, while the 30-59 group saw a slight rise of 0.1 points to 3.9%. The overall urban surveyed unemployment rate held steady at 5.1% for December, with the annual average for 2025 at 5.2%, below the government's target of around 5.5%.
These figures are based on adjusted metrics introduced in 2024, excluding students. Youth unemployment had surged to a peak of 21.3% in June 2023, prompting officials to halt publication until January 2024, when revised standards were applied. A key driver of rising unemployment has been the record number of college graduates—12.22 million in 2025—entering a strained job market.
Critics highlight significant flaws in the methodology. The survey samples only 340,000 urban residents across 31 provinces, excluding rural agricultural workers. China expert Wang He told The Epoch Times that the data focuses solely on urban youth, ignoring a large portion living in rural areas and hidden unemployment not captured in official counts.
Commentator Xiao Yi pointed out in an article that a group of nearly 300 million migrant workers is systematically underestimated or omitted. These workers, often mobile, return to rural areas during unemployment and do not meet official criteria, shifting hidden joblessness to the countryside. Xiao also criticized China's low employment thresholds, where gig work like part-time jobs, ride-hailing, or food delivery counts as employment—unlike in the U.S., where 15 hours weekly is required, or France's 20 hours.
Capital markets veteran Xu Zhen echoed these concerns, telling The Epoch Times that authorities may manipulate data by reclassifying unemployed individuals as non-labor force participants, such as those who have "given up" job searches, are supported by family, or engage in zero-income "flexible employment." He argued that, if these factors are considered, the true 16-24 youth unemployment rate would likely exceed the 2023 peak of 21.3% and continue rising, rather than declining.
Xu attributed the reported drops to "technical manipulation," such as shrinking the numerator (unemployed) or both numerator and denominator, aligning with the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) political narrative rather than genuine economic improvement.
The backdrop is China's worsening economy. Wang He noted two unprecedented indicators: three consecutive years of deflation and the first negative growth in fixed asset investment since records began in 1996, signaling a shaken economic foundation. Xu added that young people are increasingly disillusioned with the CCP, leading to voluntary exits from the labor market out of despair, not improved conditions.
Peking University economist Zhang Dandan previously revealed that actual youth unemployment hit 46.5% in March 2023—far above the official 19.7%. Wang He warned that without innovative breakthroughs, low youth employment, especially for graduates, will persist long-term. He described the economy as severely "involuted," leaving young people with few opportunities and foreshadowing a profound crisis that state media downplays.
Xu blamed the root cause on the CCP's system, including state-controlled economy and party dominance, predicting continued deterioration.
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