Yields Top 5% On Eve Of Fed Decision, Oil Pumps Again, Gold And Silver Breakdown, Top Trades

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a losing trader until I mastered technical analysis. Logic and shards beat hype and narratives every time. Now I teach investors the same techniques that made me a multi-millionaire. This is my trading game plan. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to my trading game plan. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here at verifiedinvesting.com. Now, we're one day away from the mammoth Fed decision, which will be tomorrow at 2 p.m. Eastern time. Now, overall, everyone is locked in for a 25 basis point rate hike in Fed. In fact, the Fed watch tool is telling us there's a and that's the 10 year yield right now, which is remarkable. We'll talk about that in just a second. But the Fed watch tool is showing a ninety two point five percent chance of a Fed hike tomorrow. Now, in Fed terms, if you look historically, this is as locked in as it can be. So again, there's a lot of people that are still doubters that the Fed will come through and raise rates. I was about a month ago. I thought they would try to figure out a way to weasel out of it. But ultimately, oil going up and the 10 year yield putting pressure on them to do just that and raise rates has really left them with no option. Now, remember, once we get the hike and this is already priced into the market, the the factors that we're watching for are what does Kevin Warsh say in regards to future hikes? That's going to be the determining factor of the move up or down tomorrow after the Fed decision. So we'll keep an eye on that and see where it goes. Like I just showed you guys, we have seen the 10 year yield in early trading push up to a 19 year high to hit five point four percent. But check this out, guys. Yields have rolled over now and are near the neutral to negative side. And this is coming on the back of oil, which had pushed back above one or four overnight has now started to decline. So this is what's going on here. We have the 10 year yield pushing up, making a new high from multiple years ago. In fact, 19 year high that initially was putting pressure. The S&P futures were down over 50 points, setting up for another nasty day. The pressure on yields was being driven up by oil going higher again in the early morning. But all of a sudden, oil started to roll over and that brought the yield back in. So what have we seen? We saw negative 50 points on the S&P futures to a point where we are basically flat going into the open today. Let's look at the charts and take a gander at this, guys. Again, right here. Here's the S&P 500 or the SPY tracking ETF. And you can see this is where we closed yesterday, right here overnight. Not much going on in the after hours. Then we started to cascade lower as oil was going higher. Then right here, just after 5 a.m. Eastern time, we saw the S&P start to turn around and oil started to drop, which then dragged or drug down the 10 year yield to the downside. So, again, you see the S&P rallying. If we flip over to oil, take a look. Look at how oil literally topped out at that same time frame. Remember what I just said, 5.20 in the morning, that was right here. So 5.20 in the morning when the S&P 500 bottoms, that was exactly when oil topped. And look at oil, it has come down from a high of 1.0423 to now be trading at 1.0135 in the pre-market. And if we go to the 10 year yield, this is even more fascinating. Look at that. We were as high on the daily candle as 5.04%, which again, this trend line goes back to the 2023 October high. But to go back to see when the last time since we pierced this level, how long we've been or when was the last time we were here, it was in 2007. Again, 19 years ago. Incredible stuff, guys. Now, again, just like what we talked about with oil, look at how, when did the 10 year top out? Right here, guys, right early in the morning session as the 10 year fell. And remember, it was falling on the back of oil coming down. Then the markets caught that bid and the 10 year yield is now back to 4.99%, back to below 5%. You can see right now, potentially putting in a topping tail for the 10 year yield, which is a bearish reversal signal. Now, some people would jump to the conclusion and say, oh man, this must mean the Fed is not going to raise rates tomorrow if yields are topping out. I actually think it's the opposite. I think it's the market beginning to recognize smart money knows the Fed's going to raise. Now you would say, well, wouldn't that push up the 10 year? No, no, no. I actually would argue that a hawkish Fed would drop the long end of the yield curve. And I hope the president's listening to this because this is really important, is that remember, the market sets our long-term rates, the 10 year, the 20 year, the 30 year. So if the Fed shows they have a backbone and are willing to tackle the inflation, that gives confidence to buyers of our debt. When you give confidence to those countries or those people or those entities buying the U.S. debt, they are willing to accept a lower interest rate for lending us money. So it is imperative. If you want to keep the yields low, the Fed must be independent and hawkish on inflation and all things related. Think about that one. It's a counterintuitive. And I saw there were a lot of puts out there. And this is something Jake talked about this morning to me. But we talked about how there were a lot of puts on the S&P 500. The put call ratio was sky high, which means a lot of people are betting on downside. That inherently makes me bullish and adds to the thesis that everyone's expecting the Fed to hike. So therefore, the markets, they assume the markets would drop. I'm in the other camp. I think we actually see a rally on a Fed hike, assuming Kevin Moore stays hawkish. Think about it. It's an interesting hypothesis. And we'll see tomorrow when they announce if I am correct. All right. Back to the charts we go again. That's your 10 year yield trading at four point nine nine percent. Let's go to the S&P 500 daily chart and take a look. And you guys know my bias has not changed. I've given crystal clear that as long as we hold the 75, 75, 75, 70 level on the S&P, it is bullish bias as it right there, guys, as clear as day, bullish bias on the S&P 500. Sure enough, right now we were down pre-market. Now we're back to basically the flat line and we'll see where oil goes in the coming day into the Fed decision tomorrow. But I remain bullish on the S&P 500. Take a look at this downsloping parallel. I think this is an absolute gem of a find. Look at how if you connect the recent high pivots on this drop over the last month or so in the markets, the low pivots align perfectly with the bottom of that parallel. And what do we know about this pattern formation, guys? You have a sharp up move and then inside bar action. That's bullish consolidation. That implies based on probability that we should be headed higher in the market. So I remain bullish. Listen, like always, any technician has to be able to know when things change. And if we did get a daily close below 75, 70 ish, I would then say, OK, we now go into more of a neutral stance right here. But fascinating to look at the kind of the inner workings, how oil has gone up. Now, again, it's above one hundred dollars. S&P is still two plus percent away from all time high. So very, very close. Yields just topped five percent first time in 19 years. And markets are still just two to three percent off their all time highs. Incredible. And actually shows in the near term resilience. And think about what we just saw over the weekend, Dario Amadei. I mean, all of these big players in the A.I. area warning about basically the extinction of mankind. And people are like, yeah, buy more stocks. It shows this underlying buy the dip mentality is now part of the investor DNA. Now, it's part of the investor DNA, which longer term makes me really scared about what will eventually happen when you get everyone to buy into it and think the markets can never go down hook, line and sinker. That's inevitably down the line when things will collapse massively. But I don't think we're there just yet. All right. Let's go back to the charts. The dollar today, fractionally higher. Notice how the dollar is just staying in a tight range right now. We went down, we went up, we went down, we went up. So you're basically consolidating. Now, keep in mind, we're consolidating below an ascending trend line that we broke down from. So this inevitably you would eventually think we would fall to the downside on the U.S. dollar. But again, as of now, it's just choppy action. Now, again, we look at oil today. This is the 10 minute on oil. I want to flip over to the daily chart so we can take a look here. You can see, again, we're bubbling up against a major resistance trend line. Look at this trend line. It's it's what I didn't find. And this just shows you that, you know, I have twenty seven plus years of experience. And, you know, sometimes you've got to really look at a chart and see like, well, what what aligns here? Where are the most pivot points against a line? And I didn't see this until yesterday. But again, in yesterday's game plan, I did show it to you guys. And it's remarkable. I mean, literally every little high here bubbling up against this line. Then notice how when the war broke out with Iran, we gapped above it. We talked about that yesterday. I call it a river theory. And it took off and then it became support. Support broke and now resistance and resistance. And so, like I said yesterday in the game plan, I am short oil right now and I still believe that we are likely closer to a high than a low. And I do think oil will come in still before the midterms. Now, how much? I mean, that's the question, right? I mean, maybe not back to the 70s, but I do think it could come down to 90 or even in the mid 80s before the midterms. And this is all on the back of diesel being above six dollars a gallon. I mean, these are incredible pressures, especially the diesel price on inflation and the economy, frankly, because, again, these prices are taking away the ability. Any sort of inflationary push takes more disposable income away from a consumer that was already struggling massively to spend money. Right. I mean, basically people are like, well, I've got to buy food. I've got to buy energy and lodging. What do I have left over? And many of us out there are saying we don't have much left, frankly. A great example of this. And we'll look at it in a second. Dave and Buster's, which, again, I used to go there when I was a kid. It was a lot of fun, lots of video games, bowling alley, you know, all that fun stuff. But they reported earnings. That stock is at a multi-decade low, getting crushed today. And that's a case in point. Consumer spending, that's optional. Right. You don't have to go out and spend. You don't have to go out to these places. You know, when gas is soaring and inflation soaring, you tend to stay home more. And that's a good example. All right. We'll look at that in a second. Let's take a look here. So again, we looked at the S&P, the dollar, the 10-year yield and oil. Let's go through a few key stocks. NVIDIA is bouncing today. Nasty sell off the last few days. It did fill a key gap that I discussed in the game plan yesterday. I did play it in the live day trading room as a bounce play, worked out beautifully for a day trade. Again, nothing really new here, but the bigger pattern is on watch. In other words, we're in an ascending, almost parallel. It's a slight, you know, these two trend lines are converging slightly. But point is, do we head up to the highs? Do we go to the lows? And if we go to the lows, do we break down? That's the one concern. You do not want to see this lower trend line break. Meta is at a pivotal level today. Look at this descending trend line from September of 2025 through this high in January 2026, July 2026 to this recent high just yesterday. Are we going to break out here? Maybe. Am I shorting in here? No, I don't short after we hit a trend line too many times. One, two, three, four times. It's weakened to the trend line. It doesn't mean it's going to break out. What it means is it's more of a gamble. In other words, 50-50 chance. And remember, as a good trader, we should only be taking high probability trade setups. And these are little nuances that I teach in my course, The Winning Trader Series, and that you guys can learn just by studying the charts when you put the time and the energy in. And by the way, I don't think there's anything better to put time and energy. It's literally your financial future. Some of us like to play video games. I get it. I don't do it. I'm too busy. But there are ways that can impact your financial future in such an amazing way versus scrolling on Facebook or Instagram or all these other mind-numbing, rotting-type things that some of us do. And I'll say I'm guilty of that. Every once in a while, I catch myself and I'm like, what am I doing? What a waste of time. And then I go back a week later and do it again. It just goes to show you. All right. Okay, so that's where we are right now. Take a look at Lenar. This one, I am bullish on Lenar, guys. Lenar, my thesis is this, is that Fed raises, rates start falling a little bit, and the housing stocks get a little bit of an uptick. Now, again, I'm not long-term bullish on Lenar because I still think the housing market has a lot of downside. But for a short-term swing trade, I actually like Lenar here. Look at the trend line. So I always like to coordinate my macro thesis with technical analysis. Look at this trend line. Look at this. High pivot here from 2023. We gapped above it. So that's another river theory example, classic river theory example. We then retrace hits, bounced, hit, bounced, hit, bounced, hit, bounced, hit, bounced. We just hit it again right here. We should get a bounce up. I'd be looking for a move potentially kind of to the parallel of this. Look at how these two lines are parallel. So I'd be looking for a move up to about $88 as a swing trade long on Lenar over the next few weeks. And again, you know, we'll see what happens tomorrow with the Fed. But ultimately, the trend line tells us it's hit the low end of support, should bounce. The macro thesis of debt buyers of the U.S. getting a little bit more confidence should swell, assuming the Fed shows they have a backbone tomorrow. Very counterintuitive to most of what retail and even social media and mainstream media are spinning. Right. But again, I do expect a pullback. Plus, if you think about the 10-year, it's a perfect double top. We pierced the high, which is what you want to see. And now we've pulled back. So it's a double top on the 10-year, which should pull back. And it coincides with the decision tomorrow. Again, I don't mind putting myself on the line. That's just what I think. If I think it, I'm going to tell you guys about it. It's the honesty that I bring to the table. All right. Let's look at play Dave and Buster's here. Nasty drop, pretty thin and small stock at this point. But look at this poor chart going back to 2024. What a decline on Dave and Buster's in terms of a technical level here. There is a level I am watching. We can take these lows and connect it. So notice if we get down pivot low here to pivot low, this gives us a target of a pierce of seven dollars. So I would be it would be a very high risk. Remember, the smaller the stock, the more risk of volatility. But below seven, I would start to maybe think about a day trade today on Dave and Buster's. The symbol on that is play PLA. Why are I flipping over to gold? Gold broke down yesterday. It's down today just slightly. We'll keep an eye on this again. Is the head and shoulders triggered? Yes, it is. If yields pull back, though, and I want to be crystal clear, if my macro thesis plays out with the Fed and yields actually pulling back here, then you would actually see the head and shoulders fail. I know that sounds crazy, but patterns can fail. They say all the time. The key is knowing when they fail. Now, you know, when it fails, if we close back above that neckline, one daily close above the neckline, it's off the table. All right. It's done. It's failed. And I would just say that if rates come in, gold should rally. It should doesn't mean it has to. But historically, that's the coordination right there. Same thing generally for silver. Silver is actually green today, but did close below the neckline. It is not back above the neckline yet, so it can't negate it at this point. But let's watch closely in the coming day slash days to see where it goes. Natural gas surging today. Love seeing this, guys. Let's see. The next big technical level is three dollars. High pivot right here. Right. So we have this high to this side to this side. Can we take out this three dollar level? I got to say, folks, I continue to be bullish on natural gas. The chart itself is mediocre. It's OK. It's in the bullish zone, but it's not like overwhelmingly bullish. But what I like about it is the fundamental aspects. And this is where as a technician, I'm a true believer. Like you have some people that just say, hey, I ignore all of the other stuff out there. I just look at the charts and I I ultimately allow the charts to dictate my entries. Right. Entries and exits. But I do think a good economist, a good macro, you know, trader that focuses on technicals probably does need a general overview of other things. Right. You got to know about what's going on in the bigger picture. And with this, we have the seasonality aspect. But also there's this big underlying need for energy with these data centers. And I'm hearing more and more rumblings from the institutional side that it is going to be coming from nat gas because it's basically the cheapest angle of energy right now that's doable. And so keep that in mind, is that you could see we get above three bucks, we could see a super spike to three and a half to four dollars in the near terms. I'm going to watch that three dollar level very, very closely on nat gas. Lastly, Bitcoin, Bitcoin coming back in today. A lot of the gyration yesterday was about the Clarity Act and whether or not it's going to get through their voting on something about the Clarity Act today. Again, I don't think it's the specific full enclosure bill, but either way, this is the key here. Technically, as you got to hold this zone, as long as you hold this zone, then the pattern is up consolidation, which is a bullish pattern and it could yield upside if we violate and break below here. That would be where you say, OK, game off. This is now a bigger drop. And I would favor a big move down to like sixty seven thousand potentially on Bitcoin. So right now, Bitcoin's holding its bullish bias. Let's tip our caps to that. Watch it. See what happens with the clarity vote from that point on. We'll just monitor that major technical level. But right now, the bias based on technicals, which is probability, favors the upside. All right, guys, I got to get to my trading room. Come check us out at verified investing dot com. I literally have multiple services, verified smart money stocks and ETFs. You see my live portfolio there, all my exact amounts of shares, my real PNL, all of that. We also have that for crypto smart money, crypto smart money commodities. We have long term investor, which is more geared towards long term investing and holding good dividend payers. And you see the whole portfolio there. And we'll be introducing the option service in just a couple of weeks. So get ready, folks. Lots to do. Come over to verified investing and we'll see you soon. Have a great one. Take care.