Weekly Strategy Session - 29th Sept 2026

Okay, welcome guys to the weekly strategy session. Okay, now let's just try and piece together here the, let me just remove the video panel. What's going on in the market? Where are we at? Where are the good opportunities as far as economic numbers and where momentum may shift? And then sort of piece it together, right? And this is where the new service is really right. If there's nothing really happening in the market, right, you can get a little bit sidetracked because the news, it's like there's no new news, right? This is a bit of propaganda. Okay, the China, US jumping back into bed together. No surprise there. What we're really looking for is, and this is a bit unusual, because we have been looking for geopolitical stuff. It's really focusing on what are the central banks doing? And the issue for us has been, they have been in a situation where they are just, you know, chasing their tails as they try and work out what's going on here with the impact of the US, Iran on oil prices. And that flows through, you know, agriculture, like through everything. So that's where we are. Now, there's a couple of key things today, right? You just piece together, where is the main action this week? Now we've got, I've just gone to the high impacting numbers. The RBA interest rate decision, okay, now, they are 100% going to raise rates by 0.25%. That is a given. Now, what we have to say, they'll give a bit of reasoning in their statement, right, but that comes out at the same time as the decision. Then it's the press conference where the media get a chance to really hit them hard between the eyes. Like, what are you doing? Why are you doing it? And really, I think it should be a pretty aggressive press conference. There's a lot of sectors in the Australian economy which are not doing well. They are reading the economic playbook from 1970, working out, oh, how do we try and curb inflation? But, you know, unique times, that's going to be interesting. But the question is, is the Aussie dollar going to go up today, right, with that? And looking at the Aussie crosses, I've just sort of been having to look around. And if I look at the charts, like the majors, everything looks like we've got really good trend lines. We just don't, like the market, this is what happens. They become desensitized to the movements in the market when they don't get the answers, right? We've got half the answer here, which is the trends, right, and the trend lines. That tells us where things are going. But everyone's lacking confidence in getting into these because we've had so many moves, and then it stalls, right? The Aussie is in a situation a little bit different to Euro and Sterling, because it's drifting sideways. We want the answer as to what the RBA is going to say in their press conference before they feel confident to either buy or sell it, right? And this is one of those old ones where, you know, most punters out there on the street don't understand what's going on. They raise rates, everyone sort of starts buying, right, as in the uneducated sort of punter. This is fully factored in, and Aussie is sort of on its knees, right? So this is a dollar move. If the RBA comes out and is aggressive with what their future plans are for interest rates, right, and they say, you know, we're not done yet. If this keeps going up, we're going to keep jacking them up. Well, that's going to be, that's a fresh move, right? It's a fresh forward guidance. But the take out all the crazy news, they actually look pretty good. Now, so with the strategy, right, we're sort of looking across the board and you're looking through, come back to that calendar. Okay, so if you look at, I've just got the high impacting numbers picked, selected here, and you can see obviously Wednesday, no surprise, has got a bag of key numbers coming out. Then you've got Thursday, we get into that, there's not much there. Then you've got the nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which will sort of dominate the news coming. Once you get through Thursday, sort of midday in Europe, everyone starts talking about a whole or hypothesizing what the nonfarm payrolls is going to do. And there are some numbers in between here. So I look at this and I'm like, I don't think I'm going to get much out of the US dollar. Now the PCE price index, you get some things coming out, but it has to be dramatic to move the needle on the dollar, right? And if I just drop that down a touch, like the interest rate yields, like this is no longer sort of a really a major news item. This is like, you know what, the US goes into Iran and starts throwing missiles around, all that sort of stuff. It's news for about two weeks. This has been news, now it's not news, right? But we need to pay attention to it because this is where higher interest rate yields here should lead to lower equity markets. We need that synergy, right? And the higher US interest rate yields, higher US dollar against everything, right? But at the moment, we're not seeing that, right? So all I'm doing with the weekly sort of strategy is I'm waiting for direction to line up. And that's all I'm doing. I'm like, you know what, I don't know exactly what's going on with the dollar. And you have a look here, you got dollar Swiss and dollar CAD. These two are sort of tied to the hip of, I guess, the dollar move and the oil move. The rest of them, it's a little bit hard. So like today, depending on what session you're trading, have a look what's going on there. And so like today, we've got the Aussie, right? So have a look at the Aussie, see what's going through there. Aussie Swiss. Now this is where, just do a little bit of homework before just jumping into Aussie Swiss, because I'm sort of looking at the Aussie here, right? And I've got Aussie Swiss and that does look pretty good, right? It's going up, okay? And that's what we're looking for. Then we're looking for the short term sort of momentum and direction to join up with that. But this is by no means like making you feel comfortable. Yeah, it's higher at the moment, but it's all over the shop, right? So I'm like, so that snapshot on the live signals page is where it is right now, okay? If I looked at that, I'm like, I don't know if I really think that's going up. I know it is against the bull bear pivot line, but it doesn't sort of match up with what I'm thinking, right? I'm actually quite conscious of the fact that my brain can tell me the opposite to what should happen, right? This is telling me, Brad, just get long. Once it gets into the right zone, get long Aussie Swiss. I'm like, yeah, right. But we've got two things. We've got the RBA meeting, it's the press conference, the interest rate hike is already factored in. So I'm a little bit cautious just at the moment. And instead of that, I'm looking at, at the moment, and this is where you can actually stumble across something that is very good. Looking at the bullish picks, right? And you have a look here, and you can sort of start to get a bit of a theme, like dollar Swiss, dollar CAD, right? Swissy, well, sort of going down against most things, right? And that's like, right, okay, Swissy, right? This is sort of like, is it an unwind of the safe haven trade, or what else is going on? Then you come over to the bearish pairs. And this is where I actually start, I'm starting to think this is a decent move, as a real move, right? The Yen is going up against everything. Now, so the Yen crosses. The funny thing about the Yen crosses, they will move when you least expect it. At the moment, there's no news. When there was no news, and I'm going back over 35 years, when there was no news, the Yen was the news. But the Yen has been in the news for, it's been getting manipulated by the US, right? Putting pressure on the raised rates, all this sort of stuff. So the market knows where that stupid decision is coming from. Right now, there's no sort of talk. If you look at this sort of news that's going around, I don't see much about the Yen. So I think it's time we start really focusing on this and sort of got away from us a little bit. By looking at the daily charts, you can see it's sort of broken down against a lot of things. Aussie Yen hasn't gone far, right? This is where potentially RBA comes out, raises rates as expected. I go, you know what, that looks like we might have done enough, which is not the way they've been behaving. But you know what I mean, I'm trying to say if they come out and it's pretty neutral, they're not going to be dovish, but neutral, then we might see a drift lower. But Euro Yen, Sterling Yen, Swiss Yen, CAD Yen, Kiwi Yen, it's sort of broken down against mostly everything. So then I'm like, well, what's going on? And then you look at the hourly charts, this is where we can get a little bit of love out of this. We could start to see like Sterling Yen's back at a pretty nice level. There's a few of these things that are in the firing line. I would be sort of keeping a very close eye on the Yen crosses because they are all moving at once. There's no news. So it's actually, this is a genuine move, not a sort of make-believe thing that the US are trying to get, make it happen. Dollar Yen, just the aggressive nature of Dollar Yen and its price action looks a little bit diffused to me. So that is actually where Dollar Yen can actually really kick in. And being Yen sort of a more of a neutral pair. So it's a great, it's not like having, you know, where we get clear dollar direction, higher yields, all that sort of stuff. When the Yen goes, it is basically neutral and everything sort of moves against it. So we've got, so that's something to sort of just keep an eye on the Yen crosses. But definitely the, now come back to the calendar, the, so looking at, and I'm sort of just looking at the, what's in front of me, right? If a research guy come over to my desk and said, Brad, everything's falling against the Yen. I'm like, okay, we better pay attention to that because that is something there. You can get too sidetracked sometimes to go, okay, just following the data. You're looking at the Aussie and you're like, yeah, Aussie Swiss, okay. We've got the RBA right decision. So I've got to focus on the Aussie, which is smart because that's where, you know, potentially fresh momentum might come from. It's a press conference and there's not a lot there. So what I'm trying to say is, take off your blinkers and keep looking peripherally across the market. And just by going to bullish and bearish, you can sometimes see what the theme is and what we should be looking at, right? Swiss crosses are probably another pair that you would be looking at. I was just having a look through the Aussie crosses, right? And seeing where they sort of were, where they're going on the dailies. Okay. And you can see Euro, Aussies, lower sterling, Aussie. You can see where everything is. And then I come back into the alleys looking for where, see if anything sort of matches up with that. It's sort of breaking a little bit higher, Euro Aussie, sterling Aussie. It's not as clear as day. Aussie Swiss, I'm just really not sure about at all. So what I'm going to be doing this week is, because it's a little bit odd that, you know, no one's talking about the yields. It's like, okay, so they're there, they're through the roof. Dollar, the US dollar should be higher. Equity should be lower. So what I do is I do a bit of a cross check across the market. I'm looking at the equity markets and I see that they were lower, but yeah, they're lower from where they were yesterday. They should be down here somewhere, right? That's the thing. Equity markets should be lower. And the one thing that is holding the equity markets up, you piece the puzzle together, this is the stuff, NVIDIA, right? They can't make enough money, these guys. So that is holding the equity markets up, which is a bit of a false move. So everything will catch up to where it should be in due course. The one thing is the US dollar should remain a little bit stronger, right? So with that, I automatically turn to the crosses. And there's a couple of guys who are sort of making good, well, are they overtrading or not? I don't know. But I see Chris and Kevin's involved, like as in, there's opportunities in the market. What we're trying to do, and this is every sort of other day of the week, we just want to make sure we're putting our cash into good market conditions. And then we're just, we're hitting opportunities where we have the advantage. And that's what the market analysis is trying to give us is this one here is going up, it's in the right zone, hit it, right? That's what we're doing. So this week, you come into the market again, you look through the news, and you're sort of trying to match up the technical setups with potential opportunities here, which are coming through the market. So the non-farm payrolls, as I said, will dominate the news from Thursday, Europe onwards. All this sort of harmonized stuff out of the Eurozone, that's like neither here nor there. CPI numbers out of Tokyo, I mean, inflation's got to start getting choked. You've got some PC price index, you've got some US numbers here and there. Everything really picks up Wednesday. You come through, you've got some, all these Chinese numbers, sort of important for the Aussie and Kiwi. Like, I'm just looking for flow. Is there flow here or not? Like last week, I could tell you straight away at the start of the week, the week was going to suck, right? As far as the fundamentals go. This week, it's a little bit different because the market seems calmer, right? And we might have pockets of opportunity, more so than anything else. Because the dollar data is sort of Wednesday, Friday, the dollar's not really going to have any sort of major say unless Trump says something crazy, which is a fair point. So I would be just taking it easy, take it one day at a time. Like some weeks, I can tell you, this week is all connected. And it's going to like flow from Monday to Tuesday, Wednesday, like it'll flow through the week and we should get a really decent move. This one is, well, let's just keep an eye on things. It's a bit more, it's going to be little pockets. And that's where we are, right? You know, take out the US market out of it, then there might be some opportunities here on the crosses. And that's all you're doing. And you don't have to be a rocket scientist to work this thing out. I'll be just flicking through the various crosses like Euro Swiss, there it is again. Sterling Kiwi, Sterling Swiss. Just having a look through, I mean, as I said, you could go straight to bullish and bearish. But there's little bits and pieces here, but it's not like wicked. If you know what to look for, and you look for the bullish or bearish pairs, you could actually find a diamond in the rough and see what's going on there, right? This is an interesting one, right? CAD Swiss, the two sort of instruments which seem to be coming up, obviously CAD Yen also. These two might, and I wouldn't say I'm actually trading these things a hell of a lot, but they seem to be coming up on all the signals across the board, Swiss, CAD and the Yen. So what's going on there, CAD Yen? Well, it's sort of going down at this stage. That would be enough for me to get over here and have a look. Okay, what's going on with oil? And even coming straight back into the bigger pairs, the bigger crosses, request validation. I've just done something a little bit fast. Let's see if I can get this one up. Like oil, right? It's like, if we could just take oil and Iran out of the situation, we'd be getting more fluid markets, right? And that's more just naturally flowing markets instead of being pulled by news, pushed around and all that sort of stuff. So CAD Yen, just trying to piece this together, because you know what? Oil does look like it's, like there's no, if they're doing a deal and it's all like a bit more orderly now, you can see oil is inverted on this side. So that heads back to 80 bucks. This thing is already sort of going down, right? And you know, this is where a little bit of homework comes into play. And whether you're using a trade tool to get into this, like CAD Yen La, obviously it depends on oil. That's the big thing with that trade. So that's pretty much it, guys. The week is a bit better. You feel a bit more confident. When it's a bit calmer, though, you don't get the big sort of thrusty moves, which a lot of people like. I like it when it's probably just a little bit more than this, where we do have a clear news event and it's a central bank sort of telling us, you know, I mean, this is Christine Lagarde saying they're sticking to measured steps, right? That's good. But what about we're raising rates and this sort of stuff, which is sort of where the Aussie has come from, but it's at the end of the sort of tightening sort of range for the moment. Bank of Japan debated need for faster rate hikes. I mean, that is just crazy. I don't know what's going on there. Anyway, that's where I'm thinking. So I'm going to be sort of keeping an eye on the way I sort of piece this together is, okay, RBA rate decision. This thing here could be a catalyst for a move up or down, right? The decision will not be a factor, right? That's it for where it is. Then if you want to connect the dots, they've got the CPI, that sort of monthly number they throw out. It's not great, but keep an eye on that. Any sort of news following the RBA will be interesting. Then you've got the China news, right? So you can be thinking Tuesday, Wednesday, Aussie and Kiwi in the firing line, definitely the Aussie, right? Coming to Wednesday, GDP numbers, I don't think they're a factor at the moment. Eurozone CPI numbers have to be a PC price index. CPI out of the Swiss on Thursday, and then really Friday as it does, I say manufacturing numbers is something there, but Friday belongs to the non-farm payrolls. It's a bit of a bloodbath. If you haven't seen it, get a position in that and you'll feel it. If I go to the medium numbers, you'll see it's down here at the bottom. There's a bunch of things coming out. So anyway, the week's going to slowly slide into Friday, right? Doesn't mean there's opportunities. Definitely, I think even in the Australasian session, if we get an inkling of direction, it's a nicer trade during that time zone, because you don't have Trump sort of sitting by the screens saying something crazy. And that's it. I can't really sort of tell you much more. So any questions there, guys? Anyone got any thoughts themselves on where they think things are going or what they're going to be looking at? You were on there yesterday on the CAD US. What was your real thoughts there? On the CAD? I actually was a little bit tied up yesterday. The one that you posted there, Kev? Well, you started the conversation up about that and I just followed through with it, that was all. That thing to me is at the point where it could turn around, but I don't see anything in my humble opinion that would turn it around and push it down. And that is actually what the answer is, right? Because that's one of the things I was going to tell you guys. There's no sort of coaching session this Thursday, heading south. I've got my daughter's wedding on. But yeah, there's nothing really to change this at all until we get probably the, is there going to be one final resolution out of Iran? Probably not. It's probably about four or five of them. So you're right, Kev, this is- Would you be looking for oil to sharply pull back or something to push this down? Or what would you be looking for? Well, I would be getting long dollar CAD every day of the week, right? If this wasn't a geopolitical move, right? What oil is doing? It's like, everyone knows what the game is now. If oil falls, dollar CAD keeps going up. The way the trend is going, and actually, I should probably try and get out of my head a little bit more because you look at this move from here, right? Where it sort of started going up. Since here, it's sort of been largely sideways, if anything, going up a little bit, but dollar CAD is still charging to the top side. So there's no real major- Last week, it had over 100 pip move last week. It's already had 20 this week. Yeah. So- By the trend, you've got it, the trend is in play. And until it breaks, the trend is in play. And what can often happen if we're, like, say on what I'm doing at the moment, being a bit subjective, like this and that and this. Now, the trend is up, we're in the trend, and that's it. And then you look the next week, and we could be talking here again, and you'd be like, hey, Brad, this went up 150 points last week. Just slowly cruise to the top side. It's like, that's a really good trade. Why aren't we on it? Well, I'm sort of getting too caught up in what potentially could happen in US versus Iran, where instead, I think it goes up. You could actually play it two ways, right? Have a trend trade with not maximum trade size, and then just have a trailing stop entry below the trend line, right? In case something, trying to capture the move where something crazy does happen. And the good thing is the market is open from now until Friday night in New York. So if the market's open, the move will be orderly, won't just sort of gap like it does on the weekends. So I think you're onto something there, Kev. There's no reason- For me, I'm focusing on the Aussie. That's what I've been talking in my head all the time, because it's the only thing that I can see that's got any sort of movement. It moves okay when it moves. I've had it before, haven't we, you know? Yeah, yeah, that's right. So that's, it's definitely worth having your, obviously, your charts up. Have a look what's going on the Aussie. See if you can sort of pinpoint where the moves may be. It's just a press conference, right? And just if you're listening to that, just bear in mind, the questions can sort of direct their answer, as in, they go very negative, then they come back with the next question very positive. And then it's, at the end of the day, ends up being a balancing act, and it's back to where it is. So it'll be more about us knowing more about what the Aussie is doing against everything else. And don't think for a second that they won't come out and say something mental like, we are raising rates to 5% or something stupid like that. Because when you're, when you're listening- You just pull up on Google, do you, or whatever, they just put in RBA speech or something, that's where you go and watch that ----? Or you go to YouTube? Well, you should go to the RBA page. Let me just get that up, right? So let's go to RBA. They should have a link there on that page. And this is where you play the music in the background while you listen to this crap? Yeah. I mean, this is where you want to reach into the stream and give them a slap in the face. Yeah, I would be having a look here. Usually they'll have a link on the site here. I'll have a look through and speeches. There'll be a different link for a press conference. We'll have a look and I'll find it so you can have a look. But that's where we are. Interesting listening to it and just see how it does move by people yapping like that. I mean, it's interesting how it does move things around. For us as traders, the interest rate meetings and press conferences is sport. If you can, even if you can't get to the time of the actual press conference, go back and listen to what they say, the way they say things, because then you're building knowledge and experience around that. Everything's on a little bit of a pause at the moment. This thing here is paused a lot of things, but the press conference is a different thing in itself. And we can sort of just track through the course of the week, looking for those good trading conditions. Are equity markets moving in the opposite direction to the interest rate yields? If they are, we've got good conditions. You can feel a bit more confident to be in the That's where I'm coming to. All right, guys. Well, as I said, I've got, I'm sort of flying down the coast tomorrow and Saturday's wedding day. I've got the speech organized and a few other things. So it's going to be a big day. You've got the speech organized and the budget organized. Yeah, the budget's never organized, mate. That is a moving target. The budget for the wedding is like DollarCat, mate. It's just going up. It ain't coming down, so maybe that's an omen. Yeah, but you know what? Mate, I'm sort of like stinging. And this is where I've sort of got to control myself too, because I'm actually stinging to get into the market, get a nice, clean out trade where, you know, you put five or 10k into the account and you're like, okay, that feels good. Now, because we're, so each month, right, just to finish up, each month when you go through, you know, the cycle of the month, okay, first two weeks, a lot of key data, third week, less, fourth week, usually central bankers, and it drifts. This is where like each month the traders in the banks, we are sort of turning over volume just from what the customers want to do, fund managers, corporates have to do as part of their sort of banking. Now, when it comes to proprietary trading, which is what we do, we're looking for one or two good trades each month, right? That's what the bankers are looking for, one or two good trades, because that's where they make most of their money. And when they see it, they load up. That's what we're trying to do. So this month here, this week is just one of those, it's the start of a new month, right? So you feel like, okay, this is good. So all you're trying to do on a week like this, where it's not, you know, an epic decision, like a CPI number, and we can just go boom, that's the answer. And there's no geopolitical interference. That's where you do well. This week is one of those ones where we're adding capital to the account. So the main thing is do not get yourself in trouble, as in put too much too big a trade on you. You are now sort of playing catch up and you're putting pressure on yourself. Do not do that. Let the trade come to you. All right. Okay, guys, well, that's my thoughts for this. We'll piece it together. We'll either see you on the Discord or when we see some trades line up. All right, guys. All right, guys. Thank you. See you guys.