Weekly Strategy Session - 13th October 2026

Okay. Welcome, guys, to the weekly strategy session. Now, there's some interesting things sort of happening, and we need to be pretty sort of patient with what's going on. Now, there's two things that are sort of happening just at the moment. Well, I'll tell you what, this is a – let me just come back to this. I'm going to chop and change a little bit here, but this is actually a really good assessment of what's actually going on. Right. The IMF says AI investment keeps global growth around 3%, but brings massive disruption, right? And as they're sort of saying there, it's a slow-moving tsunami. Once this AI sort of investment stuff stops, then that's when the wheels are going to really halt and we'll see exactly where everything sort of sits because it's been the one big disruptor amongst everything else. We've had a pretty good risk-off profile, sort of you know the New York market shut uh the Canadian market as well and the yen market yesterday so really today's Monday and that's what you've really got to think about is like there's no need to rush in here because the markets will not really connect until uh sort of the European North American session later today now sort of just going through i don't know if you saw the video update yesterday but um there's a few things going on let me just Now, you know, I'd hate to be a cynic, but you'll become one as you get more experience with the financial markets, right? You know, you can sort of see how everything's playing out. It's like looking at the charts. You see Trump falling behind in the midterms. Then all of a sudden, they turn up the notches on either Iran or somewhere else. Now they've got this Russian energy sort of ceasefire where they're actually doing deals again. Forget about the Ukraine. I mean, I can't believe that thing's been just going on for years. So what we're trying to do each week, right, and this is part of this strategy session, is work out where are the easy trades? Do we know what's happening in the market with various instruments? And where are the technical setups? basically trying to piece together where the best opportunities are. So what I'm saying is at the moment, we have a situation where we've got a long weekend. Think of it that way. So every time we get a US holiday, it's a holiday Monday everywhere for traders. Now, if I just come up here and hit the medium impacting numbers, great starting point obviously is the calendar. And what are we in sort of well the 13th of october it's sort of like the second week going into the third almost right so we know the fourth week is littered with just central bankers speaking all the good numbers are out on the table but this week like it's the it's the prime week of the month um because we have the us cpi numbers and you've got to think of this cpi number as the global inflation number. This is the engine behind the equity indices, currency movements, commodities. This has a huge impact on global markets. And the best thing is it just comes out. There's a year-on-year number and there's a month-on-month number. The year-on-year number is the one that the central banks focus on. So that's what we focus on. Now, this has got to be a key part to how you strategize the week because once these numbers come out hopefully we get a clear understanding now you've got to factor this in right this is the forecast the previous number now if the let me just sort of think of it this way the you've got to factor in the number coming out as as expected right if you don't what you're going to do is in the build up to this over the next day or two is you're going to build up this anticipation. Okay, I'm going to have some good trades in play. We're going to have easy cash on the table, that sort of stuff. And that's a possibility. But also, if you don't factor in it coming out as expected, you can get frustrated then just start putting trades on. So there's three outcomes here, better, worse, or as expected. All right. And we've made it easier for you to work things out, looking at the symbols affected. You've got the current market analysis. You can see if the numbers do come out as expected, this is what would happen. Stronger numbers, right? And so higher inflation in the US, they're going to buy dollars, right? It means expected higher interest rates, so they buy dollars. So euro goes down, sterling, Aussie, Kiwi, right? This is what we call the dollar block. These would all go down, and then you've got dollar yen, dollar Swiss, dollar CAD going up, right? But it's not, I was going to say, it's not rocket science, but that's how it works as expected. If it comes out weaker numbers, well, weaker numbers means lower interest rates, higher equity indices, right? The S&P 500, well, it's going down at the moment, but you'd be buying that, right? You'd be buying equity indices. And out of that, if you had a choice between the two, I mean, I haven't even hardly even heard the Dow Jones mentioned right it's um it's like the old dinosaur these days but that's where we are with the markets so now let's just piece this together so we're coming into Tuesday today right and as I said today is really the Monday right and if you look at the numbers I mean we've got the RBA meeting minutes yep uh you can check that out the IMF I mean they've said their piece which is I think interesting but there's not much else to it and then you've come down through here and you look at the numbers there's not much else out existing home sales maybe a bit of a look maybe a bit of a number right the um so there's not really a lot to get yourself excited about today okay um now but when it does get exciting is you come into wednesday right the good thing about this is By then, you've got Europe's opened up, North America's opened up, and we are now starting to get closer to the US CPI numbers. And that's the most important number for all of us, really. Now, in amongst that, what you're trying to do is piece together opportunities or where impact could come into play. Now, I'd say since, I remember going back into the late 2000 and, well, pre-global financial crisis, right? When China sort of started coming back onto the table, we all thought they were cooking the numbers. They were just making them up. And that sort of calmed down a bit. But still, it doesn't really matter if they're cooking them or not. It's what the numbers do come out. And they will impact Aussie and Kiwi specifically, right? Their two biggest export markets are China. So if there's problems in China, higher rates, you'd expect Aussie and Kiwi to go up. Lower inflation, they go down, right? So that's something that, you know, if you're in Australasia, something to think about. Then you come down into the, any time a central bank governor is speaking, it's worth having a look if you're there. You look at the ECB, there's going to be a change. Christine Lagarde is finishing, it's not like immediately, but it's not too far away. And that could be a real disruptor to the Eurozone. Once again, it's just another discussion. This is our main number for the week. So I would almost be say to like the more money you've got in your account and the more relaxed you are, I'd be saying, yeah, yeah, you just keep an eye on the technical setup. And I'll go through that in a second. Just keep an eye on the technical. See if you can get a feel for what's happening in the market. Does it make sense with what's happening? Is it a risk on profile, risk off? So the market's not talking about the bond so much now. It's sort of like it's not a non-event, but it's an old news. So this is the main thing we want to be looking at. So if we can work out exactly what's going on, maybe with the dollar, and the problem is at the moment, as I mentioned yesterday, there's bombs going off across the Middle East. You've got Russia doing deals with the USA now, and then a whole bunch of other things going on domestically in the US with the US midterms. Do we know what's going on with the dollar or not? This number here should give us a dollar direction, but there might be too many disruptors at the moment to really get a good feel for it. And if that's the case, well, really, we're looking for the crosses, right? You're looking for the FX crosses. And then you come into Thursday. I mean, employment numbers are an important number, hard number to trade off the bat because there's so many different variables, but that's what we've got, right? So I put it this way. Even if we have, if the US numbers come out give us direction well then it's a straight flow in to the aussie numbers right and just as an example so the inflation numbers came out in the us stronger right and the aussie numbers came out weaker which is very likely then you're going to have a big move to the downside in the aussie right you're going to get that big follow-through because that connects right then if you're looking at like this is the one thing you you anchor this number to your sort of to your desk or the market. And then you've gone, okay, we've got Aussie here. This is a good one to bounce straight off the back of those US CPI numbers. You've got manufacturing production numbers in the UK. So that's another good one. So Sterling, Aussie, straight up. Now, if there's no change in those US numbers, well, I'd probably stay out of the dollar potentially, right? Because then if you've got the Aussie numbers and they are stronger or weaker, then you're trading the crosses specifically on the back of that, right? So if we get stronger Aussie numbers, well, you're buying, you're selling Euro Aussie, you're selling sterling Aussie, you're buying Aussie Yen, Aussie Kiwi, et cetera, right? So there's two things in play here. If we get the numbers out of the US, it brings the majors into play. If we don't, well, then we're looking for crosses here on these separate pairs. Now, you've got to realize by now, Thursday is probably the best day of the week, right? Because we usually get some solid numbers, but more importantly, by the time we get to Thursday, the market is in a bit more sync, right? With the charts, the flow of the market. So then this is where you look at Thursday and you go, okay, what news is coming out? If there's nothing disruptive coming out here, you're like, okay, we should have some natural flow in the market. if you come to thursday and there's fresh news this is where trump's been getting in the way um and you look and say okay what's going on here bombs in saudi arabia um kyiv russia like there's a whole heap of crap right so then you're like well i don't know if i can actually you're going to get confidence in the market this is where you're going to find out what's going on so i come back to thursday and i'm looking for opportunities it's going to flow from from this the cpi right if it comes out stronger or weaker if it doesn't put the dollar to the side now i'm sort of switching over um to the to the crosses right and then you come down into thursday uh in the us now we've got a sort of few extra numbers to work with right so we get the cpi numbers right let me just go wind this back just a touch because this is where you can actually really get a good connection. Say, for example, we get, say, stronger US numbers here, but there's discombobulation in the market with the dollar, with all this geopolitical stuff. By the time we get to Thursday, this is where you can actually get a bit of follow through. The initial jobless claims, I was saying this the other day, that's like a nothing number. But when there's nothing going on, it becomes something the market can hang their hat on. So this can come into play. You need a decent number. Producer prices, inflationary, retail sales, we've got some numbers here. So if we got stronger inflation numbers on Wednesday and we got a consistently stronger number here, well, you're looking at a stronger dollar across the board and that probably would bring the majors into play, right? Even with a bit of disruption, all these numbers being one way is the key aspect to it. Now, just to tie that in, what you need to do is when we're looking at the inflation numbers is looking at what the Fed are going to be doing, right? Wednesday, you need to sort of connect the dots. The Fed, okay, 83.6% on hold, right? So you're like, all right, so what do we get if we get weaker inflation numbers? Doesn't mean they're going to cut, but that's going to go closer to 100%. They're not going to do anything, right? And that's a negative for the dollar. But you know what? If you look at the general rules of thumb here, it's sort of pretty much already anticipated that they're not going to do anything. So weaker numbers, we don't get much of a move because it's already pretty close to 100% anyway. where the move would be and i can't see it happening is stronger numbers that would next wouldn't necessarily mean they're hiking but that could go down to like a 50 50 line ball whether they hold or hike all right so that's that's this is how you sort of look at the numbers you're going to have this information to make decisions around what do i do on the economic number. I'll cover this as we come into Wednesday, but this is where the sort of action is. So when I'm looking at the Aussie employment numbers Thursday, I'll be coming into the interest rate probabilities and then looking at, okay, so what have we got here? Well, 69% on hold. So what does a stronger number do? It pushes the hold probably down a bit. It could end up being a line ball decision in november around what they do if it's a weaker number that's going to blow out you're going to see a weaker aussie and that that's because the anticipation is they're on hold or if it's really weak it'll be on hold with the chance of a potentially a cut but at this stage you can see where the difference is here there's probably no chance of a cut because there's a 30% chance of a hike all right okay so week ahead guys this is this is my plan this is how i'm going to sort of attack the week, if I just come up here, I can almost go to just the high impacting numbers. If you click on that, then I'm like, okay, so not much to do today. Will I have a look at the RBA minutes? Yeah, I probably will. May not necessarily be when they come out. I'm not too fussed. I'm looking for something I can get my teeth into, where I can trust the market. And that's why we're waiting for the markets to sort of almost open up, North American markets open up tomorrow, because then once you get the flow in the market, you started to build trust in the general movement of things. Wednesday, I'll definitely have a look at the CPI numbers. I'll be aware that there are some speeches going on here. It could be sort of something out of left field. The main action for the week is this number here, okay? That is 100% the one to go for, this is where you've got to bring back a bit of memory recall and go, okay, so CPI, yeah, let's go. What's happening? Remember the non-farm payrolls were slightly worse? Well, if this number's worse, it's going much closer towards this is the top of the market. So to me, if this number's significantly weaker than 3.7, unemployment's already picking up in the US. Inflation's already falling. That could be the top of the market for the whole interest rate cycle, right? And that's going to impact everything. So that's what we're looking for at the time. Now, to trade this number or afterwards, I'll come into the technicals in a second. We want to have confidence in what the market's doing. I can tell you, the market will not do much until this number is released, right? This is the answer. So why would you go and trade before you get the answer to what the dollar is doing okay and that's the same thing for the aussie uh employment numbers here right the these give us the answer as to what the rba is most likely to do next they're already on hold these numbers are weaker which is seems to be the sort of the way things are going then we could be at the top of the cycle there and that's going to bring the daily charts into play and then obviously you come into uh Thursday, you've got the PPI and the retail sales figures. Give us a clue on what the dollar's doing. And then you come into Friday, okay, you've got Walsh speaking, well, a bunch of central bank governors there speaking as well. So really, Wednesday's the key focus. It flows into Thursday, and then probably it's tools down come Friday, depending on how the flow is from these numbers, okay? Anyway, any questions on the data and the flow of that? No, that's understood. I'm getting quite clear with all that. That's good. Makes sense, Brad. All good. Yeah, thanks, Stephen. Well, that's good, guys. You've sort of got the hang of it, right? And sometimes out of nowhere, right, the markets, look at these long-dated bonds are still, well, they're blue, so the yields are up. But, you know, what we're starting to – this is becoming a non-event, which is good, right? And that happens with geopolitical events and a whole range of things. Once the news is – like, traders are, like, habitual. If you just give them the same news, they're like, yeah, on it for a week or two, and they're like, okay, that's old news. Let's get that out of my face, and it doesn't appear on any of the news pages anymore, right? That's done. But what we can do is we can focus on risk-on, risk-off profiles to get some confidence in the market that's what this page is going to do you come into the majors right and i was just going through a few things and i'm going to cover on thursday i'm going to cover the correlations right because i'm just going through a few different things where what oil is doing across the board and it's sort of reasonably significant so all i'm doing or all i did do i was on the wrong chart there before uh i'm just going through my my um um majors here and then really focusing in on the minds yeah like where's the action here right and then so what i wouldn't this is what i do as well right so you're looking at the numbers right do i aussie employment numbers okay so i'm looking at the first part of the week i'm just updating the majors. I don't really go in and start digging into the Aussie crosses until sort of Wednesday, right? There's no need to go and do unnecessary analysis, right? Wear yourself out. If you want to have a look, and I know, Kevin, you've been doing this quite well, is looking ahead. Because if you are feeling frustrated, that's the time to get up your Aussie cross charts and go, you know what, let's have a look here, because I know there's some Aussie employment numbers coming out thursday let's get the handle on what's happening here on these things um maybe it's because i've been doing it so much longer i've got a more of a a feel for it i'll have a quick look and then as i said i won't come in and really tune up the crosses until it gets closer to those employment numbers because it could change a bit right the so that's where i am on the charts um you're looking across the board this is where i was starting to um see and i'll just give you a bit of a bow peep on this. I was looking at oil and Bitcoin, just seeing what's happening there. Then I'm like, okay, well, what's happening on the NASDAQ? And this is, if I get up here, you've got oil overlay there. And you can sort of start to see that's oil in the NASDAQ. So this is why on Thursday, I'm going to do a comprehensive run through how to set these charts up so you can easily come through, compare instruments against each other, know how to obviously invert the scale if you need to but i'm looking at that and going well that's bloody interesting you can see how it's uh obviously correlating with oil and it's not until you go across the board that we start to see uh just looking at the oil trade there was a i've got the majors there up as well so just to get a good idea of what we're sort of looking for like there's there's the sort of that's the oil trade right CAD oil um you've got uh dollar yen and then obviously CAD yen and then i just if you really want to sort of get right into it and this is what i'm going to do on thursdays run you through um the whole setup here where you have the four instruments so you can like visually you can see exactly what's going on across the board on these pairs and i'm i'm not going to get into explaining that at the moment it'll be more interesting for you on thursday so just what you're going to do this week is cool your jets right just tune up your charts i've got the majors here all tuned up CPI is the first big number we need to be sort of looking at okay so you get that up on your charts have a look what's happening on the majors when you look at the majors that's when you come back and look at the news and start maybe start with the central bank news and there's not a lot going on, I'll tell you, India's been hiking rates, um, is you know you scroll through and it's like Italy, Middle East central banks, Germany um, U.S. central consumer sentiment near record low, blah blah blah, like you can like don't get too hung up on reading everything, this, this is like a, I found this interesting as a as a trader because it's actually spot on, that slow moving tsunami reminded me when um that tsunami was heading towards Fukushima, right? we were in the bank and all the TVs were on, I think it was, say it was CNN or something like that, and we actually had helicopters over the waves watching it as it was approaching the shore. And you could see as each wave hit, the currencies would jolt around the place. And we started trading the waves, which was actually quite weird. So anyway, there's some crap going on here. The missiles in Saudi Arabia, like is this a different – are they trying to move the conflict from Iran to Saudi Arabia? or, you know, I haven't seen anything about Israel in here, which is a bit odd. They were the ones who started all this stuff. All right, so that's it. Don't get, as I said, don't get too hung up. Not a bad week to sort of, you know, pick the eyes out of it. Come Wednesday, you're going to be – and take the time to be relaxed, right? Do your trend lines each day and have a look, yeah. But don't sit in front of the screens because nothing's going to happen, right? But when it comes to Wednesday, yeah, spend some time in front of the screens if you want to. This is the main one, right? I'm telling you right now, unless there's some left-field event, the markets will not move until this number comes out on Wednesday, Wednesday night for Australasia, Wednesday morning in the US, right? That's the start of the week, really. And it's the best number. Hopefully, we get something outside of the forecast. And I'd love to see weaker numbers because then it builds a picture of that's the end of the strong sort of dollar and then we sort of start to get things unwound. All right, questions? No, what I'm looking at on the chart, the US dollar is touching a, it's gone up in the last 24 hours or so. It's actually heading up to a major resistance area right now. So if we do get that news, it'll come right back at us, which will push the others the other way. So that's an interesting one to me. Yeah, that's good. Or if it's going to go up to the next level, which it's got another big chunk to jump up there. So either way, it's fine by me. Well, that's, Kev, that is actually the attitude and the temperament you need. It's like, you know what? It's almost like come out, like I'm happy, just give me some numbers and I'm happy to sort of start thinking about it from there, right? Because that's where the game starts. So having that sort of, it's the temperament of coming to the market and going, you know what? I actually turn the screens on with a neutral, am I trading today? with a neutral perspective, and then I let the charts tell me and the numbers, yeah, I am actually trading. There's some good setups here, and then there's some good numbers. Those two things line up. We get a nice, easy trade, right? So that's the sort of way I look at it. The US is in the overbought territory again. Like it's still stuck up in that overbought thing, oversold rather. Which one is it? Up the top. Up the top's overbought. Overbought. I always get mixed up with new language. No, that's all right. You've got stochastics nailed. So, yeah, that's a good thing, right? And this is as you come into the US CPI numbers, you would have the daily charts up here and you're going, right. Like Kev's saying, there's things that are hugely elevated here. And this is a great one if you did get weak numbers because you love the final squeeze to the top side. Squeeze all the positions out. Then when the numbers do drop, you get a fresh, Fresh news, fresh positions put on. We're hoping for the US to bang its head on that ceiling a couple of times in the next 24, 48 hours. That'd be awesome. That'll make it turn around with some good numbers on the way back. That's right. And you don't have to trade the first part. We trade the second part because it's going to be, that's where all the answers are, right? So all of these things are, like Euro's been sort of bashed up. Sterling's just sitting below the trend line. So is Aussie. So is Kiwi. And DollarCAD's just above it. dollar swiss is sort of a little bit weird to me at the moment the the beast i'm leaving that alone it's for the moment but it's sitting there as well like it's set up the bottom there look at all the stochastics they're all pointing down for before 48 hours so they'll push it right down and if you get to turn around and we've got the room to move up well that's it and i actually don't think these things will move at all up until the numbers come out right that's and that's how important is so if the whole market's waiting for the numbers that's what you guys are going to do just wait be patient right the uh and things will be very clear like even like 10 minutes afterwards an hour afterward you'll you'll know exactly what the hell is going on that's what that's the easier trade all right guys well that's it for me the uh for this one the like CPI numbers as i said i'll be doing a bit of a coverage on this i'll update the uh webinars because i really want you guys to understand how to um you know compare instruments uh correlations these sorts of things it's going to be sort of a good one to really get your head around one question i've got in relation to the Walsh speaking on the friday obviously we're not going to be doing any trading but is that the sentiment of that pushing to the next week or is that too long above oh no no 100 but he controls the sentiment of the dollar to be honest so he will be talking about at the end of the week right you've got the inflation numbers this week and then a few other things So that could come into his speech or what he's talking about. But what he says will be a part of the forward guidance of what happens to the dollar or what the expectations are around the numbers. If he says inflation goes – if inflation numbers are weak, you can be sure as hell he's going to come out and say, well, you know what? We got it right. We don't need to raise rates anymore, and we'll see how it goes from here. And that'll be the same as an interest rate cut, the impact on the market. So, yeah, yeah, definitely, Kev. That can run. Listen to that speech. It'd be a good thing to do and know whether he's up or down. And that might finish off the week if we have a trade running. Well, the only thing is, as well, you could have something in play, right? That's 2.30 p.m. Actually, that's the hour time, isn't it? Yeah, it is. Exactly. Still in the fair time for a bit more market movement. Yeah, there is. There is a little bit. Yeah, for sure. um just be aware from sort of 1 p.m. New York out every all the senior traders go home early because all the numbers are out at the start of the day and they leave the junior guys there because most like if you've lived in New York you want to get out of town sort of lunchtime-ish you know whether they're up at um in uh upstate New York or out on Jersey wherever the hell they are the Long Island they want to get out early so that's what they do so that the last part of the day can get a little bit loose and usually in the old days it's where not not not a Fed governor or a head person you'd usually get some finance minister out of somewhere making absolutely crazy comments two or three p.m. New York Friday when the markets are less liquid and you get all this crazy discombobulation so you want to avoid that okay all right okay guys that's the that's the angle, good week to get set up. Jase, we'll hopefully get your MetaStock set up and then you can Yeah, definitely. No, I'm looking forward to it and I enjoyed this too, so thank you. Welcome on board, Jase. A lot to learn, mate, but it's pretty interesting stuff watching how the US market pushes ---- around. Definitely, definitely. No, thank you. Alright, guys, good stuff. We'll talk to you in the Discord and I'll get this next webinar after the schedule. Cheers, guys. Cheers. Cheers.