The midterms are almost here. But what happens after the votes are counted? Let’s go Off Script

Hey everybody, I'm Christian Bryant. Welcome to Unbiased Updates Off Script. The news moves fast, so this is our chance to slow it down and make some sense of it. Coming up on the podcast today, we're less than a week away from the midterms, but beyond who wins and loses, what's really at stake? I'm talking with our senior politics reporter about the storylines you may have missed and how Tuesday's election could change Washington. One of the things that's at stake is whether or not if and when Democrats take control of that chamber, do they have hearings about what they have called potential crimes committed by the president and members of his family and members of his administration. Plus 34 years ago, James Carville had a simple message. It's the economy, stupid, with prices still squeezing Americans. Could that same message decide who controls Congress? I'll ask our cost of living reporter. Americans are seeing their purchasing power eroded and they're blaming the government and the party in power, which is the Republicans. That's what the polling shows right now and more than 50 years after a teenage girl was murdered in Utah investigators finally have an answer how DNA evidence links her death to serial killer Ted Bundy. Let's start where we always do with what matters then we'll go a step further. We're now less than a week away from the midterms and there's a lot more to watch than just the polls control of both chambers of Congress is on the line and that could determine everything from who gets confirmed to key government posts to how much scrutiny the Trump administration faces. So I sat down with our senior politics reporter, Ozzy Paver, to talk about what he's watching, some of the stories that haven't gotten much attention, and what could actually change after Tuesday. Ozzy, thanks again for being with us on Off Script. I want to go over some of the things that we've seen this midterm cycle. of AI ads. We've seen scandals. We've seen presidents on the campaign trail. There have been unexpected contested races. But all of this is leading to the midterms on November 3rd. What are you going to be watching going into the midterms? So what we're seeing right now are races that are being contested that a few months ago, a year ago, nobody really imagined would be. You have Democrats feeling pretty strong about a Senate race in Georgia, and you have Republicans playing defense in places like Kansas. This was not really on many people's bingo card when the midterms started. One of the things that I'm really going to be looking for on the night of Tuesday, November 3rd, election night, are how many races get called that evening and how many candidates concede their races? Now, we know what happened after the 2020 presidential election when Donald Trump refused to accept the results of the election, and he told supporters things that were not true about the results and how they could be sort of changed, leading to the January 6th riot at the Capitol. President Trump has reiterated those kinds of unfounded claims about election integrity. And now that he's the president, he has the Department of Justice at his disposal. And they have taken steps to do things that the Department of Justice has not done before. And many people that he's appointed to his administration have refused to acknowledge the results of the 2020 election. So it's not clear how many people are going to accept the results on election night, even if the results come in quick, come in big, and are, as he likes to say too big to rig so i'm gonna see how everyone plays ball that night i'm curious to know are there any big storylines that have been simmering that haven't gotten a lot of attention that you feel like we should be paying attention to there is there was one detail that i was a little bit surprised uh about that i that i that was brought to my attention a little bit late in campaign season, which is that Georgia, a place that has become a battleground state and has become in some ways a prize for Democrats to see if they can win there. They have two Senate seats. Can they do more? John Ossoff, who is on the ticket, seems to be in a pretty strong position. He's an incumbent Democratic senator. People think he might have a chance at some higher office after that uh you can imagine which one but but other than Ossoff every other democrat democratic candidate on the ticket is a black woman which means which means georgia may elect possibly the first black woman governor in the history of the country and if you think about how important Black women have been to the Democratic Party's success. Stacey Abrams, I'm thinking about, and her runs for office. This may be perhaps an early indicator. I think this year, there are going to be questions about data centers. Are data centers going to be swaying voters? Are voters who are closer to data centers voting more in opposition to President Trump's party as President Trump cheers on and encourages those to be built? Do places where ICE has had aggressive enforcement actions and shootings and even some fatalities, do those places vote for moderate or more progressive and stronger Democratic candidates who say they're going to take a stronger line against the administration? The ongoing storyline between progressives, DSA and moderates within the Democratic Party. It was a big storyline in the primary. It's unclear how strong the DSA is going to be in the general election. Ozzy, before we let you go, I want to remind viewers just what's at stake here. I feel like the storylines are important. Understanding how far we've come in this cycle, that's also important. But remind folks what's at stake and what we could see once the votes are cast, everything is tallied. What's at stake here? Perhaps the most important thing that's at stake is control of the Senate. And that's because the Senate has a role in confirming or denying confirmation to the appointees and nominations that President Trump makes to positions within the administration, but also to the federal bench, and even including a Supreme Court seat if one should open up. We may not see another party that doesn't control both the White House and the Senate appoint a Supreme Court justice. It may be some time before something like that happens. So nominations are incredibly important, and that's what might happen. Over in the House, one of the things that's at stake is whether or not, if and when Democrats take control of that chamber. Do they have hearings about what they have called potential crimes committed by the president and members of his family and members of his administration? Cryptocurrency, stock trades, self-dealing, contracts that are going to people who are familiar with members of the administration, pardons that have been apparently millions of dollars have been exchanged with brokers in order to get these pardons. All of those things could be investigated. Democrats have to then decide, is that something worth pursuing? And impeachment. Impeachment is inherently a political process and has traditionally not worked out the way pursuers have wanted. And it often serves the effect of consolidating the impeached party's president. They get to say that the other party is trying to take me out unfairly. Voters put me in. They're trying to remove me. It's not fair. And because it's seen as an external attack, it's easy to sort of consolidate internally. But those are decisions that Democrats are going to have to make. And that's some of the things that are at stake. And President Trump is still going to be in the Oval Office after Election Day. He is still going to be able to run federal agencies the way he sees fit. That includes THS. That includes the Department of Education, which he has done away with. It includes how the FDA administers SNAP benefits. It also includes Medicare to Medicaid programs. It also includes the Department of Justice, which has investigatory powers. These are incredibly strong tentacles of the federal government that the president still controls and that Democrats in either chamber could call to investigate and look at, but have somewhat limited roles in deciding how they operate. So when we focus on the horse race at times, part of that is because the personnel is policy. If you see who a executive puts in charge of certain agencies, you can sort of understand in which direction they're going to pursue those goals. I like how you said that. The personnel is policy. I mean, not that you've coined the phrase. I feel like I've heard this before. someone else came up with it i am borrowing someone else's very intelligent phrasing that no but that but this but this helps give us a better sense of exactly what things could look like you know once we get through the midterms as always Ozzy, thank you for your time we appreciate you being here on off script um i know it's going to be a busy next few days for you but we'll have to catch up again soon to talk about everything that happens afterwards so thank you Call me anytime. Not every good story makes it into unbiased updates, so before we go, here are a few that we think are still worth your time. The FBI is taking another step in its investigation of former California Congressman Eric Swalwell. On Tuesday, agents searched a Beverly Hills mansion owned by billionaire Stephen Klubek, a major donor to Swalwell's campaign for governor. The FBI confirms the search, but the warrant is sealed, so we don't yet know exactly what agents were looking for. Swalwell resigned from Congress and dropped out of the governor's race in April after multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct, including a former staffer who accused him of rape. Swalwell denies the allegations. Federal agents have also searched his Washington home and seized electronic devices from him at a San Francisco airport. And he's facing separate investigations by prosecutors in Manhattan and the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department. Swalwell is also facing renewed scrutiny over his past relationship with a woman suspected of ties to Chinese intelligence. He has not been charged with a crime for more than 50 years. The murder of a 17 year old Utah girl went unsolved. Now investigators say they finally know who killed Melissa Ann Smith serial killer Ted Bundy Smith disappeared in 1974. Her body was found days later, but no one was ever charged. The break came from another cold case. Back in April, investigators used DNA to confirm Bundy killed another 17-year-old Utah girl, Laura Ann Amy, that same year. That evidence led them back to Smith's case. And now authorities say they have enough to close it. The Summit County Attorney's Office has carefully reviewed the evidence and approved the closure of this case. Although Ted Bundy is no longer alive to face prosecution, advances in forensic science and the continued dedication of law enforcement professionals have helped provide answers in a case that has remained unsolved for over 50 years. Bundy was linked to the murders of at least 30 young women between 1974 and 1978. He was executed in Florida in 1989. And with this latest finding, investigators have now closed two decades old Utah murder cases linked to Bundy in just seven months. All right, now let's go inside the story. Each week we grab one of our reporters and go a little deeper to talk about what didn't didn't make the story, the questions that came up, and what they found while reporting it. It's the economy, stupid. That line, coined by Democratic strategist James Carville, helped define Bill Clinton's first presidential campaign more than 30 years ago. And with the midterms less than a week away, it may be as relevant as ever. Gas prices are up, groceries are still expensive, and polls show more Americans are blaming President Trump and Republicans for the economy. But does that frustration actually change how people vote? Out Cost of Living reporter Lauren Pearl talked to pollsters and political experts about that very question, and I asked her what she found. Lauren, thank you so, so much for joining us on Offscript. I wanna read your headline and give you some kudos real quick. Is it still the economy stupid? How voter anger over prices could reshape Congress, I want to give you kudos for fitting stupid into a headline. I also want to let my nieces know if they're listening that we don't say that word, okay? But this is a really fascinating piece, a lot of great data within this. I want to start with this. How do you explain the disconnect between voters' attitudes on the economy and how that relates to their votes? Because it seems that something is a little off here, has been in past elections, between how folks are feeling about the economy and how that translates into votes for one specific party or candidate. How do you explain that disconnect? Well, most voters stick with the same political party every election cycle. So we're living in a very divisive time. One of my experts was saying that historically, economic conditions did have a very big impact on how people would vote during each election. And now Republicans vote for Republicans, Democrats vote for Democrats for the most part. But what my experts told me and what I learned digging into the data is that that can change when economic conditions change very much as they have in recent months, particularly since the war in Iran started in February and since Trump started his second term. So in a very close election, economic conditions can matter a lot because there might be less swing voters this time around or in this era. But for folks who haven't made up their mind, these pocketbook issues can become very decisive. So we mentioned some of the circumstances surrounding this particular election when it comes to the economy. You mentioned the war in Iran. You mentioned policies by this administration. When thinking about those things and thinking about the dissociation between how people feel about the economy and how they vote, what makes this year any different from previous election years well i think inflation is has changed i mean i think that is um as i um wrote in the piece inflation has an outsized political punch almost more so than recession fears unemployment other economic indicators um inflation is you know right there in people's face they see you know the gas prices you know are um every time you you drive down the street or a highway you see gas prices in in giant oh yeah numbers yes on the roadside um it is affecting people every single day of their lives so we have gas prices going up 44 percent since the war in iran started in february you've got grocery prices way up and it's not just you know a recent bout of inflation. Prices had already spiked even before the tariffs, before the war in Iran. So this is, you know, inflation on top of inflation. So people are really feeling the financial crunch. So, you know, even when you've got, you know, higher unemployment, folks who have pretty secure jobs can sometimes, you know, get by relatively unscathed. But inflation is a really big factor. And political scientists would say that it has an outsized role in how people vote. So that's a big thing that's changed, is just the specific economic conditions that we're seeing right now. You spoke to somebody who our listeners may know. I'm imagining his face right now because I feel like I've seen so much of him. Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who's well known for his work says, it's not the economy that matters to voters, it's affordability. And I wanted to just take a moment. Could you clarify that just a little bit? How do we distinguish between the two, economy versus affordability? Well, that's a great question because I think pollsters, voters will tell pollsters that the economy is up there with one of their number one concerns. But the economy is many things. It's unemployment, it's interest rates, it's recession fears. A lot of things go into it. But inflation is a particular kind of pain that people feel. As I said, it affects virtually every American. So Americans are seeing their purchasing power eroded year after year. And so there's just a lot of financial pain that people are feeling. And they're blaming the government and the party in power, which is the Republicans. That's what the polling shows right now. Before we let you go, the midterms are right around the corner. That we know. This is what we've been talking about week in, week out. And that's going to be the real litmus test to see just how big a role affordability or the economy will play in this election. Tell me a little bit about what it is that you're watching out for going into the midterms, and then what you'll be looking out for afterwards? Well, I think the elephant in the room is, are the Democrats going to seize control over Congress? Right now, according to some mix of polling, some prognosticators are putting an 80% chance that the Democrats regain control of the House. And that's not a huge surprise, because in midterm elections, the president's party will often lose seats in the House. But the big one to watch is the Senate. And now there's some studies suggesting that Democrats have a 57% chance of regaining control of the Senate. And that would be a serious blue wave. That would be quite historic. And so I think that would be an indictment on President Trump and the Republicans' economic policies if the Democrats were to regain the Senate. So we will see. If I had a crystal ball, I'd probably be a betting person, but I'm not. And, you know, I think that a lot will depend on what happens in early voting, which is happening underway right now. We'll see on Tuesday. And as I mentioned in the piece, turnout is always the wild card in every election, but particularly in midterms. For our listeners playing news bingo, I think you get to cover a space every time you hear the words crystal ball. So go ahead and fill that space in, folks. Lauren, thank you so, so much for joining us on Offscript. Is it still the economy, stupid? How voter anger over prices could reshape Congress? Lauren, thanks so much for your time. We appreciate you. Thank you so much for having me on. The headline of Lauren's story, Is It Still the Economy Stupid? How Voter Anger Over Prices Could Reshape Congress. Check it out on our site or on the Straight Arrow app. And finally today, a story we thought was worth ending on. Two guys drew a line on a map nearly 260 years ago to settle a property dispute. Little did they know that line would become one of the most famous divides in American history. And now, the original hand-drawn map of the Mason-Dixon Line is going up for auction. It dates back to the 1760s when Maryland and Pennsylvania were still British colonies. The line later became a symbol of the divide between North and South and between free and slave states in the years leading up to the Civil War. So what's a piece of history like that worth? Well, auctioneers estimate it could fetch between $800,000 and $1.2 million. Bidding gets underway Thursday in Asheville, Carolina. Okay, that's it for us this week. Thank you so much for watching Unbiased Updates Off Script for all of us here at Straight Arrow. I'm Christian Bryant. We'll see you back here next week. Have a good one.