Technical pressure is building for USD reversal, but there are no fundamentals to push it right now.

Hi there, traders. This is Brad Gilbert with today's Trading Action. All right, now the markets, it's been a bit of a slow week, we know that, but I'll tell you what, the markets are really starting to look like they're ready to sort of move. And I'm talking about retracements. Okay, if I just give you a look here, look, Euro's been sort of bottoming out very close to these current levels, as has Sterling, around 132. Aussie's found a bit of a base here, as has Kiwi. All right, and you're starting to see the same sort of patterns on the dollar pairs, right? It's starting to look fatigued, right? The dollar index actually doesn't, somewhat. But, and if I just sort of widen out the beast, it's sort of doing its own thing, but it's not exactly going up anymore. It's sort of drifting sideways. So that tells me we could be at a crossroad. It'd be a great time for the US CPI numbers to come out because we've got trend lines to sort of work with, okay? If we look at the equity indices, right? We've got some strong markets and the markets, everyone's been talking about this, right? How the US equity markets keep going up even with the strong bond yields, right? It's a bit of a mismatch. So they look like they're sort of cooling their jets, right? We've had no major US numbers out, so that is something, right? And if the market's long, well, then it's gonna start to drift lower, generally speaking. Oil, well, drifting sideways, but with more of a downward bias at the moment. We've got a major level just under 88, which could be a bit of a thing. And as far as safe havens go, gold is lower, silver's lower. And the poor old crypto traders, well, they're back to their favourite strategy, which is HODL, right? For those that don't know, hold on for dear life, right? I love that strategy. It's got a great name, not a good one for trading, but that's where we are. So what do I think from here? If you sort of just shrink out the pages a bit, you're starting to see, especially the dollar block, right? Euro, Sterling, Aussie, Kiwi, they look like they're getting geared up. The pressure's building for a pop to the top side. As I said, a big US number there would be ideal for that, but we're not exactly getting it. There's a little bit of pressure off dollar CAD, right? We have this amazing trend line, which sort of did break down, where is it? Just up here, but it's found a bit of a base, and I've just sort of redrawn the current trend line because it's sort of, once again, it's a bit of a clean out, right? Market's very nervous that there is gonna be a big clean out. And that's why it sort of moves, doesn't follow on with it, and then keeps drifting top side. But just on that, right? If you're looking at that, let me just blow this up a touch. Looking at oil, okay, it is starting to go up a little bit, right, just here. So that could be the catalyst for a move to the downside. The Asian session, haven't done anything with it, so we'll have to wait and see what the European, North American session does. So that's where we are. The actual fact is, the dollar trend is in play, the dollar uptrend. If we're looking at the markets, we've got pretty poor trading conditions, US equities are going down, which is good with the stronger US yields. But check out the major currency pairs. Nothing really lining up there properly. Okay, Aussie down. I mean, it's a bit of a mixed bag. Euro's going up against most things, Kiwi's going up against most things, as is the Swiss. Like, it's hard to sort of see exactly what's going on. For me, once again, I just come back into the live signals. I tune into what's going on. Now, this is where I see a little bit of difference, right? If I just come into, let me just click on the major Forex pairs. The Forex pairs have had really clear direction for the last two weeks, right? Euro down, sterling down, Aussie down, Kiwi down. And then you've had, particularly dollar-Swiss, dollar-CAD going up, right? But you know what? This is the shift, right? At the moment, we only have dollar-Swiss in that groove. So I'm thinking we're gonna, I think we're in a transition point of moving from strong dollar to either neutral or lower dollar, right? It just won't keep going up in a straight line, that's for sure. Economic calendar, well, there's nothing really there to help us this week. Really, the Canadian employment numbers are the only thing. We've got a lot of speculative central bankers speaking. They could provide some sort of little push, but the CAD unemployment number's the only thing we can really see, and probably the University of Michigan consumer expectations and inflation expectations, probably the key for the dollar as well, right? So with that CAD, CAD crosses have gotta be in the groove, right? Because this move on dollar-CAD is something to focus on. Just keep an eye on the interest rate tracker, right? There's a lot of talk about the central bank, a lot of talk about the Fed. If you come in and read the various bits and pieces, you don't have to read too much, right? Fed policy makers divided over rate hike. That's all it is. They'll just regurgitate that story. And the one thing that's hanging on the coat rails at the Fed office is weaker non-farm payrolls last week, weaker employment numbers. That's the first number. Next number is the US CPI number, and that's what we really need to be checking out. Okay, so that's where it is, right? We're in a bit of a little bit of a holding pattern. There have been a few trades this week, not much, but there are a few instances around. Just keep an eye on, as I said, the signals. That's the best direction for you. And keep an eye on the trading conditions, right? Poor trading conditions means the dollar pairs, the majors, are not that great. It doesn't mean necessarily the crosses aren't gonna give up some good cash, all right? It'd be great to get some good numbers coming up next week, and that's where I think you should be focusing on the next week's opportunities, because the technical setups I'm seeing at the moment, as I said, they are building pressure, bigger pressure on the dollar. Is this dollar trend gonna keep going up or not? To me, I gotta say, it's holding in there, but subjectively, as a human, I'm like, wow, these things all look ready to explode in the opposite direction to recent trading activity. All right, guys, that's it for me. Have a good one, all the best, cheerio.