TACO AGAIN? Trump Reverses Course on Ukraine Aids, AI Chips

So next, let's turn our attention to Trump. His series of actions have basically become the top headlines in major media outlets around the world today. First, the biggest and most surprising news is that several major NATO countries— have all refused to pay for American weapons to support Ukraine. As of now, at least France and Italy have done so. Hungary and the Czech Republic, among others, have all come out publicly to issue statements refusing Trump 's so-called miracle plan—where the U.S. provides the weapons and NATO pays for them. As for the reasons? Italy's explanation is simple: they say their military budget is limited and they ca n't afford to fund such actions. French President Macron was even more direct, right? He said outright that what we need to do is actively promote the purchase of weapons made in Europe, especially those made in France. Instead of buying and relying on American weapons. As for Hungary and the Czech Republic, they've always been relatively pro-Russian—these two countries, right That's common knowledge, so it's really no surprise at all that they refuse to provide financial aid to Ukraine. However, you could say that there's a silver lining in this unfortunate situation—at least we can see that now Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and several Nordic countries facing a significant threat from Russia, including Denmark, Sweden, and Norway, have all agreed that they're willing to spend money to buy American weapons and transfer them to Ukraine. But among them, well, Germany bargained a little. What kind of bargain? Originally, Trump wanted Germany, as a single country, to buy at least five Patriot missile systems for Ukraine. But Germany said that due to unresolved budget issues and tight finances at the moment, they could only send two Patriot systems to Ukraine for now. Of course, even having two is already pretty good, right? Next, there's Trump—this is the second major point. On Monday, Trump made a major announcement about large-scale military aid to Ukraine. But no one expected that yesterday, he suddenly changed his tune and publicly stated that the US does not intend to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine in the new aid package. At the same time, he also warned Ukraine not to target Moscow for attacks. Today, we saw the White House Press Secretary, Levitt, responding to Trump. When asked whether Zelensky could attack Moscow, he came out and said that Trump was just asking a question at the time, and he was not encouraging further killing . So, what exactly is the reason behind Trump's change of stance? At the moment, we do n't really know. Some people speculate that it might be related to the threat issued by Putin's aide yesterday. Because Putin's aide openly issued a nuclear threat yesterday, without any attempt to hide it. Of course, does Trump really buy into this, or does he not? Regardless of the reason, Trump's hesitation and his retreat might actually only make Putin even more aggressive in pushing forward his path of war. From Putin's perspective, he might think,'Look at Trump, is n't he really just a taco? Right, he's just a paper tiger, is n't he? This could make Putin even more likely to take reckless risks. For example, today, Russian military drones directly attacked a company in Ukraine that belongs to Poland, coming from three different directions. This is quite rare—to directly bomb a Polish company. Even though it's located in Ukraine, it's still a Polish company. Clearly, this was n't an accidental bombing, but rather an action with strong provocation and warning intentions. In other words, for Trump and Europe, any sign of weakness or retreat right now ... will only encourage Putin to raise his stakes in the war, and what ’ s the result? Peace becomes even harder to achieve. The third big news is that today the United States announced it has relaxed the ban on Nvidia ’ s H20 chip. It can now be exported to China, right? Nvidia ’ s CEO, Jensen Huang, even wore a traditional Chinese jacket especially for this occasion. He attended the third Chain Expo held in Beijing today and even gave a speech. As for the lifting of the ban on the H20 chip, in fact it goes hand in hand with the Chinese Communist Party relaxing its controls on rare earth exports. Actually, it ’ s part of the temporary ceasefire agreement reached during the recent China-U.S. trade war negotiations in London. So, a lot of people are worried that lifting the ban might boost the CCP ’ s AI industry, right? But actually, to be objective, when it comes to this chip—the H20—its impact on the CCP is actually quite limited. Why is that? This chip is a low-spec version specifically tailored for export to the Chinese market. Its actual computing power is only about 15 % to 30 % of that of the H100 chip. The H100 is currently NVIDIA's very mainstream and advanced chip, right? So, the version exported to the Chinese Communist Party is only about one-third or even less of that configuration. To put it in perspective, it's like having the shell of a sports car, but inside, it's equipped with a tractor engine. Basically, it's only suitable for running inference on some small to medium-sized models, right? For example, in fields like finance, healthcare, logistics, and customer service, it can have some applications. But if you want to use it to train those large-scale models with hundreds of billions of parameters, that's a different story. It's basically useless for that, right? It would be completely meaningless. So, the lifting of restrictions on this chip actually does n't provide much substantial help to the Chinese Communist Party's AI industry. However, it does allow Nvidia to maintain its market share in China, and at the same time, it can squeeze the survival space of domestic Chinese chips of the same level. After all, even though these chips are in the same class, Nvidia's chips have a relatively mature ecosystem So, the lifting of restrictions on the H20 can, to some extent, be seen as using its mature ecosystem to dump products at low prices in the Chinese market. This is actually a form of dumping to some extent. Of course, it will deal a certain blow and put pressure on Chinese domestic chip manufacturers focused on inference computing power. So, obviously, this is n't good news for them, right? But the White House AI advisor, David Sacks, actually made it very clear. He once said this: if we just hand over the entire Chinese market. It's basically the same as subsidizing China's R & D . So, as we can see, Trump ’ s series of moves here seem to continue a major feature of his previous foreign policy. What feature is that? You ’ ll notice that whenever he targets the Chinese Communist Party, his tactics are always well-structured well-executed, and quite effective. However, whenever it comes to moves or measures involving Russia, Ukraine, or Putin, you ’ ll notice that he almost always— —makes misjudgments, right? Again and again, making mistakes, and he ’ s constantly hesitating, wavering, and going back and forth. In other words, the results are clearly much less effective, a lot worse. It seems that when it comes to Putin, Trump still hasn ’ t suffered enough losses to learn his lesson. Maybe he always thinks that by showing goodwill or being accommodating to Putin, right? That this will make Putin change his mind, that giving him face and showing kindness will be appreciated, and that Putin will accept this goodwill and sit down to negotiate with him. But the real problem is, Putin has never thought that way at all—he doesn ’ t see it like that. Putin, on the contrary, thinks that the more Trump tries to be friendly or accommodating, the more he sees it as a sign of Trump ’ s weakness. To Putin, this is just Trump putting on a tough front but being weak inside. In Putin ’ s mind, he might genuinely believe that Trump is just like him. That's why he had his foreign minister, Lavrov, come out and openly mock Trump, saying things like,'Trump 's so-called fifty days, we do n't take that seriously at all, right? He ’ s said things like twenty-four hours before, or a hundred days, hasn ’ t he? Did he ever follow through? That ’ s basically what he meant. So given the current circumstances, if you ask for my personal opinion, I think any attempt by Trump to cozy up to Putin or show hesitation will only encourage Putin to ramp up his offensive. It won ’ t make him seriously consider a ceasefire. Alright, before we respond to a question from our friends, I want to remind everyone and also share some good news: together with Fang Wei, Li Dayu, Li Zheng, Gao Jie, and several other independent media hosts, we ’ re planning to organize a large-scale in-person interactive event this golden autumn in September, and we ’ ll be inviting friends who share our values to join us. We ’ ve chosen to meet up with friends at places like the Grand Canyon, Yellowstone Park, and other natural wonders to see the world together. Our plan is to watch the magnificent sunset at the Grand Canyon with everyone, and really feel the vastness of the sky and earth. At the same time, we can share stories and experiences together on site, and even record shows together. And right below the cliffs beside us, you can see the Colorado River, which has millions of years of history In that moment when the sunset meets the earth and sky we can capture together this magnificent scene that nature has bestowed upon us. So just imagine this scene—it will definitely be one of the most unique and unforgettable experiences of our lives. And places like Antelope Canyon and Paria Canyon—each of these spots truly deserves a place on the list of must-visit destinations in a lifetime. What's more, we've specially invited a friend with over twenty years of experience in the field, who will give us insightful and accessible explanations about the fascinating history and captivating stories behind each breathtaking landscape. At the same time, we've also invited a professional photographer who will accompany us throughout the journey to guide us in taking photos. This way, you can be sure to capture postcard-worthy travel photos, and we can even customize exclusive souvenirs just for you. Let ’ s all leave behind a unique mark and everlasting memory of this gathering of friends, because we believe that true travel is about finding a resonance of minds amid the relaxation and beauty of the journey Compared to those more exhausting self-driving trips or whirlwind sightseeing tours, this is more than just a journey. It's truly a gathering of like-minded friends sharing warm friendships—this is our first attempt. And this year, we only have this one opportunity. Next year, we might invite everyone to join us in other countries and other places. And a special reminder to all our friends: right now, registration is extremely popular. In the first phase, we've already filled all the spots for the early bird discount, but calls are still coming in—many friends are hoping to join. So now we've opened up registration for the second phase. As long as you call customer service before midnight( 24:00) Eastern Time on July 18th to confirm your registration, you'll be able to enjoy the second phase discount when you make your payment. So if you're interested, hurry up and call 855-955-5227—there will be someone dedicated to answering all your questions. Alright, next we'll respond to a question from our friends. Alright, this friend—uh, I think what this friend said is quite representative. Here's what he said : He asked,'Do you really believe everything Cai Shengkuns says, when it's all self-contradictory—today's statements always contradict yesterday's? Uh, of course, I have to address this question. Regarding Mr. Cai Shengkuns himself—uh, his views, especially on whether Xi Jinping still holds power, right Whatever opinions he has on that, those are his own business. Everyone, in fact, has their own perspective on this. And actually, each person's viewpoint is n't necessarily fixed, because as new information keeps coming in and emerging, their opinions may change as well. It's possible that some people will adjust their views and I think that's actually quite normal. There's just one thing. Hmm, what I discussed with everyone yesterday was that I referenced a revelation from Mr. Cai Shengkui, right Maybe some of you did n't watch my show carefully, because I actually did n't say that his revelation was accurate. Yesterday, that revelation actually mentioned two main pieces of core information, right? The first was that, okay, there are sources within the military who told him that Xi Jinping ... will be stepping down in August, right? And that it's very certain and so on. But personally, I'm quite ... I have to question this, I need to put a question mark here, because if they're saying Xi Jinping will step down in August—like I mentioned to everyone yesterday—then what about the military parade on September 3rd? The authorities have already officially announced that he will be reviewing the troops on September 3rd. If he steps down in August, then there would have to be a major adjustment on September 3rd. This can only mean one thing: that something major must have happened within the CCP system for such an event to occur. They had already set the date, right? It was already announced to the whole world, and then suddenly it would have to be canceled or someone else would have to take over. Personally, I think the likelihood of that happening is relatively low, so I still tend to believe that the Fourth Plenary Session is more likely. It might be held only after the September 3rd military parade. Of course, I still have to say this: whatever the CCP tells you right now, it's all just ... In such intense power struggles, is it really possible that something could happen that none of us know about Major upheavals like that are hard to predict—even though I think the chances are relatively low, it does n't mean it's completely impossible, right? Because the CCP operates in a black box. There are a lot of things, honestly, that we just ca n't give everyone a 100 % certain answer about. Personally, I almost never, right, have any of those so-called real insider scoops. You know, and so on, right? But what I do is, I try to use the information that's been exposed or leaked out there. I analyze and interpret it using logic. If you often watch my show, you probably know that this is generally my style, you could say. That's how I approach things. So, for example, when Cai Chengfeng mentioned yesterday—what was it? The so-called six major guidelines of the Fourth Plenary Session, right? And so on. I do n't believe it's real. I do n't think those are the actual six major guidelines that the Fourth Plenary Session is supposed to discuss. I told everyone yesterday, I think it's actually just the Maoist leftists within the Party, right? They're using his channel to release this kind of information to the outside, and then it gets re-imported back into the country. They're using this method to amplify their voices, right? To magnify their message. That's all it is. So I really do n't think the Fourth Plenary Session is actually going to suddenly take this path, like going back to being loyal to Mao Zedong Thought or reinstating the dictatorship of the proletariat, right? To put it plainly, that's just the Cultural Revolution line. That would mean carrying out a massive purge, even killing people, right? Bringing back the death penalty and so on. In my view, none of this is actually likely to happen. It's just the Maoist left using these channels to spread rumors, that's all. So, let me emphasize once again—I really hope everyone watches my show all the way through, okay? Actually, yesterday I also mentioned to everyone that there are even more shocking revelations, right? Like, supposedly Xi Jinping's health checkup report has been leaked, and there are even rumors about Peng Liyuan having an affair and so on. I've already talked to everyone about these revelations. Based on my own analysis and the information I've obtained, as well as my own judgment, I do n't actually think they're real, right? Because these rumors are spreading like wildfire online right now, and a lot of people are really curious, wondering whether they're true or not, right? There's a lot of debate about it. OK, so I want to take this opportunity to address it. Let me just share my personal opinion, my own understanding, and some of my thoughts. Like I always say, this is just for your reference, right? Maybe what I'm saying is correct, but maybe I'm wrong . But I believe that when it comes to Xi Jinping's real situation, we'll know the truth soon. I do n't think this matter will be dragged out for too long. The truth will come out. Also, I want to emphasize once again—I've said this many times, but there are always some friends, maybe new viewers, and that's understandable since there are always new people watching my show—who tend to confuse two concepts. That is, Xi Jinping losing power and the announcement of Xi Jinping losing power. These are two different concepts, two separate things. In my view, Xi Jinping has already lost his power. However, the authorities have not officially announced it yet. In other words, when it comes to Xi Jinping losing power, is it a sudden change or a gradual process? These are two different things—at least, that's my personal view. And I think we can see that right now, many people, in their interpretations, tend to believe that Xi Jinping 's loss of power is a gradual process—that he may have already lost a lot of significant authority. But ...? The authorities have n't officially lifted the lid on this yet. So friends say,'Hey, is n't Xi Jinping still coming out to preside over meetings? Is n't he still giving speeches? Does n't that show he's still firmly in power? No, that's a major misconception. Let me put it this way: whenever someone says,'Look, here's the evidence—Xi Jinping is still giving speeches, is n't he? Xi Jinping is still presiding over meetings, so that means he's still firmly in power, right? '—not necessarily. These are two different things. This is a kind of misinformation, you know? Like I said, the key to this kind of misleading information is that it confuses these two concepts. They confuse the two concepts: Xi Jinping losing power and the announcement of Xi Jinping losing power. That's basically what's going on, right? So, we'll wrap up our interaction with everyone here for today. Thank you all so much for your feedback and engagement okay? Well, we ...