Maui Condos Crashed 29% — Is the Bottom In ???

Aloha everyone. So there's no doubt in my mind that the Maui condo market has crashed over the past couple of years. And if you look back on some of my past videos, you'll see that I've been covering this topic from the very beginning on this channel. Now I know the word crash is triggering to a lot of people because I do get feedback from clients, colleagues, and subscribers who say that it's too harsh of a word to describe what's happening here on Maui. Some people would rather that I call it a correction or a recalibration or just a return to normal. So in this video, we're going to look at the actual statistics to see what has happened in our market over the past few years. But perhaps even more importantly, we're going to see if the numbers give us a clue as to where the market might be heading from here. And I'll show you where you can find some of the best real estate deals on Maui in the market right now. Let's jump right into it. Okay, first, let's talk about the definition of the word crash that I use because there isn't a universally recognized definition of a real estate crash. But we can borrow the widely accepted definition from the stock market. Most people would agree that a 1% to 4% decline is a normalization. 5% to 10% is a correction. 10% to 20% decline is a significant correction. And anything over 20% decline within a time span of 1 to 3 years is a crash. So with that in mind, let's go take a look at some of the data. This is a chart of the median sales price for condos and single family homes on Maui over the past 20 years. So it gives us a nice long-term perspective. Now, the condo line is shown in tan and the single family home line is shown in blue. And it's also important to mention that this is a 12-month rolling average using data pulled directly from the MLS. And we use a 12-month rolling average because it does smooth out some of the trends so it's easier to see, but also because it eliminates the seasonal fluctuations, which we see here on Maui. Now, looking at the graph, you can see that starting in 2012, we've had a steady increase in median sales prices for both single family homes and condos until we reached the peak in February of 2025, at which point the condos really started to drop in value at a significant rate. Now, if we zoom into a more recent timeline, this is what the median sales price has looked like over the past 10 years. And this is what it's looked like over the past five years. Again, we're focused mostly on condos for this particular video because they have had the most drastic decline in value. Single family homes have also seen a decrease in value, but not nearly as drastic. Let's take a closer look at the numbers on this particular chart. Starting with October of 2021, when the median sales price for condos was $640,000. Again, we saw a steady increase in value from there. One key date to take a look at was the date of the Lahaina Fire, which was August of 2023. Median sales prices of condos then was $825,000. The next key date here on Maui for our real estate market was when Mayor Bisson announced Bill 9, which is the controversial law that will phase out about half of Maui's short-term rentals the ones that are in apartment zoning. And at that point, the median sales price of condos here was $850,000. Now, just because there's an announcement like that, the market does not turn overnight. And also keep in mind that we're working with a 12-month rolling average, so it does make sense that values continued to increase until our peak in February of 2025 when we hit $920,000 for the median sales price of condos. And that's where the decline started to happen. So we fell consistently all the way down to $650,000 in May of 2026. And if you do the math, the difference in value from the peak to the most recent bottom is about 29%. And that's exactly why I call this a crash and not a correction. Now to be clear, there's a lot of different factors that led to the sharp decline in condo values here on Maui. Certainly, Bill 9 and the uncertainty of short-term rental laws was a major factor. But what also contributed was an increase in mortgage interest rates, a decrease in rental income due to a slowdown in tourism, and an increase in HOA dues mostly caused by an increased insurance rates after the fire. So it's not just clickbait. I really do feel justified defining what has happened to the Maui condo values over the past two years as a crash. If you've been following me on this channel, you already know that I do my best to always keep it real and call things the way that I actually see it without the typical realtor fluff. With that being said though, it's not all bad news. Let's take a look at some of the most recent data that could be an indication that the market is turning back into a positive direction. This is the median sales price chart again, but this time let's zoom in to the three-year time period and take a closer look at the most recent data. As I already mentioned, in May of 2026, we bottomed out at $650,000. But since then, we've had five straight months of $650,000, which means that we've completely leveled off in this market. Now from here, let's go take a look at the closed sales chart. And what you'll see here is that again on our 12-month rolling average, we actually hit the lowest level of closed transactions for condos back in November of 2025 with 677 transactions. But since then, it's steadily been increasing until our most recent month in September was 810 closed transactions. That's an increase of 19.6%. And if we take a closer look at the pending sales, we can see that the bottom here was around June of 2025. And again, we've seen a steady increase in pending sales. This is a more forward-looking indicator than closed sales. And our most recent month was 821 pending sales. That's an increase of 21.6%. So this is a really good indication for our market that things might be starting to turn around. Of course, it's not possible to predict the bottom of any market perfectly, and it totally is possible that we could see the median sales price here on Maui drop even a little bit more. But I personally feel confident that the biggest decline is probably behind us and most of the bad news is already priced in. Of course, I am biased because I love Maui and I believe in its long-term upside. But I do think that buyers are in a unique window of opportunity right now. This is the best market to be a buyer that I've seen for more than 15 years. Some of the deals that I'm seeing out there are truly incredible. Motivated sellers are listing their properties for 20-40% less than what their property would have sold for just a few years ago, and in some cases, it's possible to negotiate those list prices down even further. But here's the bigger question. How do you find those deals and know which ones are the best? Since I've been watching the Maui real estate market every day for more than a decade, they seem kind of obvious to me, but I understand that for most people, all the properties and numbers tend to blend together. So that's exactly why I just started a brand new email newsletter where I share a full analysis of the best real estate deals on the market right now. I just released the first article a few days ago with five deals that are listed up to 46% lower than what a comparable property would have sold for at the peak of the market. I'll share a link in the description where you can find the newsletter and the first article as well. The QR code on screen right now will take you there as well. Now, this newsletter isn't just a list of properties. I actually do a full analysis of each property by disclosing the comparable sale that was used to calculate the percent below peak value. I give you a plain English explanation of how Bill 9 could affect the property's ability to offer short-term rentals in the future. And the best part for most people is that I give you a full breakdown of realistic expectations for rental income and property expenses so you can clearly understand what the cash flow potential is. Now, I'm sure you can tell that I'm really proud of this newsletter, and I did put a lot of work into it, so there is one catch. Each newsletter will have one deal that is free for all subscribers to see, but if you want to see the other four, it does require a paid membership. As of right now, the membership is just $9.95 per month, and when you upgrade, you'll be locked in at that price for as long as you stay subscribed. Now, to be clear, this isn't a big moneymaker for me. The reason I'm putting part of the newsletter behind a paywall is to keep the property list somewhat exclusive. Everyone is welcome to subscribe, but if the entire newsletter was open for everyone to see, the benefit of having access to this list of properties is greatly reduced. So, go ahead and check out the first issue for yourself and subscribe to the free portion with just your email address. And if you like the way I present the information and find value in it, consider upgrading to the paid membership to read the full article. With that being said, if you appreciate the deep analysis of the real estate market, please hit the like button for me and subscribe for more updates just like this in the future. I hope to see you all in the next video. Aloha.