The 10-Year Real Estate Rule: Why Waiting is a Bad Idea in 2026!
What is the true state of the real estate market in 2026? As we head into Q4, Dan Palomino (KW Big Island) breaks down key industry slides and data from Keller Williams Mega Camp in San Antonio, Texas.
While total national home sales have remained flat at roughly 4.1 million units annually for four consecutive years, home prices continue to outpace historical national appreciation averages (5.4%). Learn what this means for buyers, sellers, and investors both nationally and locally on the Big Island of Hawaii.
Key Video Highlights:
• 2026 Home Sales Volume: Why unit sales are down while home values remain resilient.
• Hawaii vs. National Seasonality: Why Hawaii's high season runs from Thanksgiving through April (70%+ of annual agent production).
• Mortgage Rates & 10-Year Treasury: Why mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield (nearing 5%) and what to watch next.
• Price Reductions & Inventory: Analysis of price cuts across non-luxury (32–33%) vs. luxury (25%) properties, plus Q4 buyer opportunities.
• The 10-Year Real Estate Rule: Why waiting on the sidelines rarely pays off in high-equity markets like the Kona-Kohala Coast.
📍 Local Luxury Real Estate Services in Hawaii:
• Serving Kūkiʻo, Hualālai Resort, Mauna Lani, Waikoloa Beach Resort, Kohanaiki, and the Kona-Kohala Coast.
• Specialized buyer representation, discrete market analysis, and seller consultations.
📱 Contact Dan Palomino Directly:
• Call/Text: 808-987-3306
• Email: [email protected]
• Website: https://www.hawaiiteam.com
0:00 - State of the Real Estate Industry 2026 Outlook
0:20 - Keller Williams Mega Camp Insights & Market Trends
1:16 - US Home Sales Volume (2021 Peak vs. 2023–2026 Flatline)
2:21 - Hawaii Real Estate Seasonality (Thanksgiving to April High Season)
3:28 - Home Price Appreciation Trends vs. 5.4% Historical Average
4:46 - Price Reduction Data: Luxury vs. Non-Luxury Markets
5:32 - New Construction vs. Existing Home Price Comparison
5:51 - Inventory Levels & Days on Market Analytics
6:55 - How the 10-Year Treasury Yield Controls Mortgage Rates
8:28 - The 10-Year Retrospective: Why Buying Real Estate Always Wins