Dodgers Next move REVEALED...

The Dodgers' next move has just been revealed as Thursday afternoon, the Braves took Evan Phillips from the Dodgers, three years, $35 million to land the reliever. The night before the Dodgers, it turned up on a short list of teams chasing a 37-year-old lefty from the Yankees named Ten Hill. Now the Yankees want him back and the Guardians are right there in the mix, but the Dodgers, they're the team chasing that has a couple World Series to their name over the past three years. Now, it's a strange place for the best you in baseball to be because this bullpen just handed away the NLCS in ways. Now, in game four, the Dodgers led. Tanner Scott lost the lead on a go-ahead home run in the sixth. Vessia walked in a run, and Edwin Diaz gave up a homer in the ninth. So, is the soft-tossing lefty on the wrong side of 36 really the Dodgers' next move? Well, I think there's a lot more to it, and I'll tell you about it. About 60 games into the season, this bullpen had a .319 ERA, which was 7th in baseball, a much different pace than the year prior. But after the All-Star break, it was .444 ERA, bottom 10 as of late August. The full year ended at a .374 ERA, which is still 9th in the majors, but had 23 blown saves. The whole staff had a .355 ERA against a league median of .415, and the Dodgers, of course, they won 100 games. But the team that won 100 games with a 3-5-5 ERA in their bullpen, well, guess what? They were still losing games late. Now, the biggest miss of the offseason was Edwin Diaz. He threw just 18 and two-thirds innings with some injuries and had an 8-6-8 ERA. Vessia, he slipped two with a 5-6-8 ERA after the All-Star break against 2-6-4 for the year. Vessia also a free agent. Now, put it together, and the Dodgers did not have one bad reliever. They had a bullpen that just stopped holding. And the offseason started taking pieces out of it. Phillips is the first one gone. From 2022 to 2024, he threw 179 innings with a 2-2-1 ERA in L.A. Of course, then he needed Tommy John surgery in May of 2025 after seven appearances. And when he came back, Scott kept the closer job, and Phillips pitched the middle innings. The Dodgers re-signed him for one year and $6.5 million, and in 2026, he threw for 26 innings with a 3-4-6 ERA, setting up for Scott. The Braves deal steps up from $11 million a year to $13 million in the last year. It's a lot of money for a man with just 31 and two third innings in two seasons. And it tells you what the market thinks of a good reliever at the moment, which makes Alex Vessia the harder problem. Vessia had a 2-6-4 ERA, but also walked 32 batters, more than double what Scott walked. And Sports Illustrated says half the league is calling him and that he could price himself out of what the Dodgers will pay. Now, Spotrack has him at two years and $14.2 million. So we'll see what he ends up getting. But right now, looking like he's going to get a decent paycheck. Blake tried and hurt his right shoulder in late September and missed the postseason. And he's heading into his age 39 season. Now, take out those three names and the arms left in the pen are right handed. But they do have a left hander already. And he is the best reason to wonder about Tim Hill. Let's strip out the free agents and the Dodgers. They've got two relievers with guaranteed money in 2027. Edwin Diaz at $26 million in salary and Tanner Scott at $20 million. Now, Diaz signed in December last year for three years at $69 million, a record $23 million a year for a reliever, and it cost the Dodgers their second and fifth highest picks in the draft alongside it. Then he gave them an 8-6-8 ERA. He still saved seven games in just 18 and two-thirds innings, and Dave Roberts kept sending him out there. Scott had the opposite year. In 2025, the first season of a $72 million deal, he had a 4-7-4 ERA and the most blown saves in the majors at 10. So the two expensive closers swapped years, and the pen finished ninth. Together, Diaz and Scott are $46 million of a $386.2 million tax payroll. It's about 12%. Everyone else, though, it's cheap, and that might be the problem. Brock Stewart is projected at 1.8 in the last year of control, and Henriquez, Dreyer, and Kline are on arbitration or pre-arbitration money. MOB.com wrote that the pin feels diminished with Phillips and Vessia potentially leaving. Phillips already confirmed, obviously Vessia looking like he's the next one out. Sports Illustrated's winter preview put restocking the bullpen as the Dodgers' first priority ahead of keeping Tarek Skubal. Now, Scooble is the big one. Sports Illustrated calls the cost massive, and he is, of course, a Scott Boris client, so it's going to be a tough one. Now, Gomes at the GM meetings on Scooble said, quote, you kind of have to let things play out. So the pin is the first priority, and the Dodgers also plan to let things play out, which is how a bullpen priority turns into a $5.6 million lefty on the list of five different teams. Tanner Scott last year saved 25 games with a 2-6-9 ERA, so definitely in a much better spot in year two of his deal. He struck out 82 batters and walked 15 in 63.2 innings, so he was the control the Dodgers needed. And that is a big recovery from 2025 when he had a 4-7-4 ERA and 10 blown saves on his $72 million four-year deal. Jack Dreyer is the other lefty under control with a 320 ERA and 64 in two-thirds innings. Dreyer struck out 73 and walked 23, and so he's a lefty who throws strikes. Now, the Dodgers, they're not starting at zero. They're looking for a left-hander to protect Scott and Dreyer, and that is exactly what Tim Hill is. Now, Hill threw his sinker on 82.8% of his pitches in 2026, and he throws it sidearm. Now, the sinker averaged 91.1 miles per hour in 2021, 88.3 miles per hour in 2026, so he's lost about three miles per hour in five seasons. However, in 2026, he had 10 holds and 2 saves, and in tight games, the Yankees used him against left-handed bats, then gave him whole innings in blowouts. Against left-handed hitters in 2026, his OPS against was 6-11, however, against right-handers, it was 9-08. Now, over his career, those numbers are 5-88 and 8-07, according to Sports Illustrated. Now, that is a specialist. You bring him in for the left-handed bat in the 7th, and then you can take him right back out. But he threw 58 and two-thirds innings in 67 games, less than an inning a night. Now, since 2020, a pitcher must face three batters or finish the inning, so one-batter lefties are gone. He'll face 241 batters in 2026, 137 left-handers, and 104 right-handers. That is 43% right-handers, and they are the ones who hurt him with a 9.08 OPS against and seven of the 12 home runs he gave up. A Dodgers manager cannot bring him in for one left-handed bat and take him out anymore. Otherwise, he'd be a lot more valuable. But his ERA with the Yankees, well, it climbed every year from 205 in 2024 to 460, most recently here in 2026. The 2026 year came apart, a 142 ERA in April and then a 953 ERA in September and October. Now his FIP, which ignores the defense behind him, was at 5.93 and he gave up 12 home runs in 58 and two-thirds innings. He struck out 10.8% of the batters he faced, second percentile in baseball, and walked 3.1% 97th. And he does not miss bats. He lives on the ground where 71.3% of the contact against him stays. Now that is the case for Hill, and it is the contact, not the result. Hill's hard hit rate went from 44.9% in 2025 to 43.4% in 2026, and his barrel rate from 7.9% to 6.6%. But the share of his fly balls that left the park doubled from 15.7 to 30.8. His sinker still averaged 88.3 miles per hour, the same as it was in 2025, and a Sierra was 3.66. So the ERA was ugly, but the contact says some of it was bad luck. That is what makes him a bounce-back option. The 3.84 strikeouts per nine innings, down from 4.97, says it's not all luck. If you're loving all the Dodgers offseason content, make sure you hit that like button as we're trying to beat our best one this month, which certainly sits at 354 likes. Five teams are in on Hill, and the Dodgers know they are not the frontrunner at the moment. John Heyman has the Yankees wanting to bring him back with the Guardians right there. The Mets, the Giants, and the Dodgers all sit behind them. ESPN says the Mets have also asked about Bessia and Raley, and not to mention Tarek Skubal, as they're competing on the Dodgers in multiple fronts this offseason. Spodrak projects Hill at one year and $5.6 million after his $2.85 million he made in 2026. The Dodgers' 2027 luxury tax figure is already $390.1 million against a $247 million threshold before any reliever is signed. So $5.6 million does not scare them. What stops this deal is another team offering more time or more money. And Hill, he's not the only lefty at that price. Steve O'Kurt had a 213 ERA this year, and Fox Sports has him at $6.7 million a year. Adrian Morajon is 27 with a 283 ERA, and Fox says that he could top $11.9 million a year. So the Dodgers can get a better lefty for about $1.1 million a year more, or a 27-year-old for double. Sean Newcomb is another left-hander on the market with a 291 ERA across the last two seasons and projected at around $7.2 million a year, and he has some starter-level experience alongside it. Next to O'Kurt, Morajon, and Vessia, Hill has the highest 2026 ERA and the lowest projected salary, which is a discount, not an answer. If the pin is the first priority, the cheapest name on the list is a strange place to start, which is why the quote from the GM matters. Now, Brandon Gomes told everybody at the GM meetings that bullpen is probably an opportunistic thing and looking at who fits within our group. Opportunistic means they wait for the price and they fit the lineup. It's not a team that fights for four of their clubs with a 37-year-old. Sports Illustrated says the Dodgers do not appear to be the most aggressive players in the Hill Chase, which leaves the Dodgers two choices this winter. A quiet fix for a lefty spot or a bigger bullpen move once the scuba question is settled. Now, Hill, he's a depth arm. He's, you know, a guy who can face off against a left-handed bat. He's not the answer to losing Phillips, but it looks like the Dodgers are in on him. Now, the reason is because his 6'11 against lefties is great. The problem is the 460 ERA, a 5.93 FIP, and 37 years old. I think we could... Probably find some better targets out there. Obviously, O'Curt is there for about the same money and a lot better ERA. Marajon is there if you'd like to spend some extra money and he has been linked to the Dodgers as well. Plus, coming from the Padres, that'd kind of be some nice things. But the real fight, of course, is Vessia. Half the league is apparently in on him. The Mets won him and a 5.68 ERA after the break makes you question if the Dodgers should actually bring him back or not. Now, what to watch for? Well, first of all, let's see where Vessia lands, if it is back in L.A. or if it's somewhere else, and whether or not Hill will go back to the Yankees before the Dodgers will even have a chance. So comment down in the comments section, yes or no. Should the Dodgers go out and sign Tim Hill? He's a decent option against lefties, but that's about all he brings. Let us know, and we'll talk to you next time. Peace out.