A New Political Era | Battleground Texas

From the halls of the state capital in Austin to the corridors of power in Washington, a massive political transition is underway. Who is taking charge and what does it mean for the Lone Star State? We sit down with incoming lawmakers, transition teams, and top political analysts to break down what happens as this new era takes shape. This is Battleground Texas. Access. Hello, everyone. I'm Rudy Kosky in Austin. I'm Greg Grugan in Houston. Stephen is off, so joining us today is Rice University political analyst and Baker Institute fellow Mark Jones. Let's begin. Fresh off his historic victory here in Texas, U.S. Senator-elect James Tallarico is already taking his new political profile to late-night television. Over the weekend, he hit Saturday Night Live, trading jabs with the show's Donald Trump. I'm James Tallarico, the guy who's been texting you every day asking for $5. In this economy, who can blame you? But I think Mr. President, if we can work together, we can make life better for everyday Americans. It's clear people want something new. They want something different. I'm talking, of course, about SNL's cold opens. How many of these trunk freezers are they going to do? Infinity. Well, in that case, there's only one thing left to say. Live from New York, it's- Monday, Tallarico posted a photo with outgoing Senator John Cornyn, saying he has served our state honorably and I'm grateful for his advice and guidance. Cornyn addressed the meeting while speaking with the American Bar Association. I consider it my responsibility to help him. In his transition as the next senator from Texas, because I've had the honor of representing 32 million Texans for a long time, and that's where my allegiance lies. So I wish him well. Obviously, his politics are different from mine, but I think Democrats are going to have to deal with the problems in their own party. And because they've got the Democratic Socialists of America who want to dictate the direction of the Democratic Party, which is clearly not in sync with where Americans are. Okay, so if you thought Election Day meant the end to those slick, produced political videos filling up your timeline, think again. Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa hosts this transition team this week, dropping a lengthy new video on X. Joe Madden, for the last 23 years, I've worked in and around Texas government. For the last eight years, I've helped Texas elected officials build their government for the people through their transitions. My family's lived in Texas since before there even was a Texas. Ryan Pollack, Executive Director and Secretary Treasurer of the Texas State Building and Construction Trades Council. I'm a sixth generation Texan. Tamela Barksdale, former school board trustee and lifelong Texan. Ernest Bills, former state representative serving four terms in the Texas House. Fourth generation Texan in the Texas House. I worked side by side with Governor-elect Hinojosa as we fought against the voucher scam and we put the kids in the state of Texas first. We will end the era in which our public schools are stripped for parts. The work to save Texas public schools begins today. And Governor-elect Hinojosa is officially hiring. Over the weekend, her team launching a new job portal to fill critical roles across the incoming administration. Hinojosa saying that she wants to build a government of diverse Texans. Now, on the other hand, the Texas GOP is struggling on how to regroup and rebuild. Senator Ted Cruz putting together a team that's going to be based here in Austin, and Midlothian Republican Brian Harrison, among the survivors of that blue tsunami, also has some ideas. We talked about Brian, talked about purges of moderates known as rhinos. Was that a mistake? And how to right the ship. I think what happened was this. Last Tuesday was not a victory for the Democrats and their socialist policies anywhere near as much as it was a repudiation of the failed, objectively failed, establishment class of weak Republicans who have been governing the state of Texas for far too long. I was supportive of the primaries because I wanted to actually move the legislature to the right. But unfortunately, that didn't happen. I mean, last session, and you were there, you saw this a lot. Last session, I think objectively, this is an opinion, the most fiscally irresponsible, most fiscally liberal session in the history of the great state of Texas. So whatever the premise or the promise of those primaries a couple years ago. It failed if its stated goal was to make the Texas government more conservative, because that absolutely did not happen. And even the way we did school choice, and I actually think that my message is the most unifying message of all for all Republicans, is that I think there's nothing more uniting and unifying for everybody who calls himself a Republican than liberty. Texas is no longer a low tax state. We've got the highest effective property tax rate in America. We have increased Florida cut spending every year for the past four Texas has increased spending by 42% over the exact same time period. And Texas now has a higher debt to GDP ratio than the People's Republic of California. Okay, we have failed across all dimensions of what it means for all Republicans to unite under one brand. Well, we have failed to meet Texans where they are. We have taxed them out of their homes. And I'm sorry, we've got a reverse course on that. We're gonna solve the affordability crisis. I can think of nothing better. Than getting rid of property taxes in the state of Texas. But unfortunately, over the last 10 years, property taxes have done nothing but explode, and voters are reacting to that. All right, there's certainly a lot of change to deal with, and we'll take a shot when Battleground Texas returns. So-called establishment Republicans. I don't know about you, but that sounds like the politics of subtraction, not addition. No, most definitely, Greg. Texas Republicans want to essentially follow the fate of California Republicans and fade into irrelevance, then they should probably follow Representative Harrison's lead. But in a realistic world where the sky is blue and not whatever color it is in Harrison's world, that strategy is just a recipe for Republicans to fade into irrelevance. I think this election showed very clearly that when you veer too far to the right and then simultaneously don't perform in terms of economic policies, you get the rejection of voters. So for Republicans, I think they need to adopt a very different strategy, but they're, I think, going to be hurt or at least hamstrung by a contingent that agrees with Representative Harrison. And if that group continues to dominate, then that's good news for Democrats going into 2028. No doubt. Rudy. I don't want to overly simplify, but I think it's fair to say Democrats won in part by taking to the middle and capturing a majority of independents. So if you're in charge of mounting the Republican counterattack in 2028, can you afford to move further to the right and just hope voters will follow? You know, I think your initial take is right, Greg, and I also think that that's the big fight right now for Republicans. Where do we go? I think most of the Texas GOP all agree that a lot of fences need to be mended with independents and Latinos, as well as find a way to better coordinate and communicate with conservative youth. The problem is, as you mentioned, the hardliners in control right now, digging in. They sure do sound a lot like the Dixiecrats from way back in the 1970s. You remember that group. failed miserably. And a reboot didn't happen until later. The Reagan Bush machine energizing evangelicals and fiscal conservatives together. So no surprise Harrison wants the Texas GOP to get back to basics. And today he announced a coalition of 25 groups that want a special session to limit the emergency powers of the governor's office because he told them so that that had to be done. They rejected that earlier. But it is surprising that it seems that he's not Not in favor of embracing those who are center right, Bush-Reagan block of voters, plus a lot of the voters who are independents, who are moderates, but shifted to Team Blue there, Greg. Yeah, Mark, our friend Bill King has argued that this election has established the so-called independent vote as the ultimate decider in Texas elections and includes a large chunk of Latinos in that unaligned voting bloc. As a political scientist and pollster, what's your take? Well, I think independents have played a pivotal role in Texas in recent cycles. It's just they've always leaned more towards the Republican Party. Then towards the Democratic Party, this time we had a perfect storm where Republicans didn't turn out, Democrats did. Democrats voted overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates. Republicans voted somewhat for Republican candidates, but not in the same manner. And independents, and this was the fatal blow, I think it cost Governor Abbott his job and Lieutenant Patrick his job, is that independents voted more for Democrats because they viewed themselves for the first time in a long time as closer to the Democratic Party than the Republican Party when they thought about the issues and they thought about the performance of the Trump administration. Okay, Rudy, if the 2026 midterm was a job review for Texas Republicans, Democrats will have just one full legislative session to rack up points with voters before the 2028 election. I'd like your wild ass guess about what's likely to unfold with the state Senate still in Republican hands. Yeah, there's the rub for the Democrats, right? It could be like this upcoming football weekend that we're waiting for. It's going to be interesting to see how many times the Democrats will go long with an extreme left ideas. And if the Republicans will just simply go into a prevent defense, how they can run out the clock this session. And I'm also interested in seeing who's going to be on the bench playing chess. I think Republicans will be willing to compromise on some of those big bad boogeyman issues that hurt them. But I don't see them caving on other big issues or anything that could look like a Democrat win When? addressing their affordability promises. And it's also worth noting though, guys, gas prices, strangely enough, already dropping. Greg? All right, Mark, any thoughts there? Yeah, I think the legislative session, there is definitely room for compromise on things like maybe casino gambling, on things like THC regulations, definitely on data centers, and maybe even on Medicaid expansion. But that'll depend in part on how the Democrats play it, and if they can meet the Republicans in the middle ground, and if the Republicans are willing to play ball. All right, plenty more to unpack when Battleground Texas continues on the other side of this break. But not write a blank check. Meantime, outgoing Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick offering a post-election assessment in which he essentially redirects blame for the GOP's midterm shellacking. Why did it happen, whether it was people unhappy with data centers or power lines out in West Texas that were going against their land or the impacts of the war? The bottom line, it happened because of affordability. The old saying that politics is local is just an old saying. Politics is personal. And in this event across the country in Texas, people were voting. How it was impacting them personally, and so they were feeling the pinch and I think we saw it. I mentioned a moment ago, people can agree with you but still not vote for you. Let me give you this example. In Texas, almost 80% of all the school bond issues were voted down. Taxpayers are saying enough, I'm paying enough for my school taxes and they voted all of these bond issues down while voting for Democrats who said they were gonna raise school taxes. So that goes back to it was a wave election, it wasn't about policy, it was about a midterm, a wave and people. Certainly interesting take there. Now, with Dan Patrick heading into that podcast sunset, there will be a new sheriff in the state Senate. But like an old West movie, that sheriff, Vicki Goodwin, she's going to have to face down a majority of hard-nosed, ornery Republicans. I spoke to SMU political science professor Matthew Wilson about this coming political OK corral. And if hot topic items like gambling and legalized pot It can get new life after being dead and buried for more than a decade in that upper chamber boot hill. I'm not sure how many Republicans in the Senate want destination resort casinos. Dan Patrick always stymied that, now he's gone. So now that Republicans in the Senate are kind of free to vote their heart of hearts on that, do we see them actually more of them moving in the direction of wanting that? And conceivably, you could imagine scenarios in which both sides use that as a bargaining chip in certain ways. So if Hinojosa really wants casinos, Republicans might say, yeah, we'll give you that if you don't. Try to hammer us too hard on the education stuff like you preserve some aspects of the school choice program. Marijuana regulation factor into that same type of negotiating process then? Yeah, it certainly could, but that will require Republicans in the Senate to do careful thinking about their rank order priorities. What matters most to them and what matters? Less, and Republicans are going to have to fight hard if they want to preserve meaningful elements of Abbott's school choice program. Because Democrats will want to just defund, they won't be able to simply abolish it, but they could leave it as an empty husk with no money behind it. Republicans have got the bottom line, they've got a lot of soul searching. To do in regards to do we negotiate and what do we negotiate with? They've also got to think about messaging as they try to defend their priorities against Democratic efforts to undo them. How do they message that? For example, on school choice, Republicans need to be getting ready right now with some sob stories about middle class Hispanic kids getting thrown out of Catholic schools because Democrats in the school choice program, if they're smart, they're getting those people lined up to cut ads. And that's just one example. All right, guys. In Dan Patrick's post today, he claims the flip in Texas was more about personalities and less about policy, whether or not that's true or at least 100% true. I think the midterm message from voters included compromise. We've talked about that a lot today. And, you know, and that compromise shouldn't be a four letter word. Greg, certainly Republicans have to jump on that anti data center bandwagon. But what's your read on other areas for compromising? Is gambling pot a bridge too far? Look, my sources are saying this is looking like a full-blown defense. Led by Republicans in the Senate. You know, the only thing the Constitution says they have to do is pass a budget. And my guess is they're not going to do very much at all. They're going to play defense, run the clock out for the next two years. If they can get through this session, good for them. They haven't had to play defense in the past for 30 years. But now that's all they have to do. And they can be the firewall that stops. The Democrats from gaining the kind of things they can show to voters as progress. So I'm expecting a full-blown defensive effort in the Senate. Yeah, I hate the pre-bid defense. Now look at the early bill filing and there's a lot of left-leaning ideas there involving things like gun control, abortion. You know, I'm here on this big blue island and we're passing taxes and giving money to undocumented immigrants, trying to keep it hush-hush, not getting sued. So Mark, I don't remember any polling showing support for either things, open borders and new taxes. Did I miss something here? I mean, at least statewide. I never know. Travis County voters do seem to like to self-tax, whether it's to pay for light rail or other things. So maybe it's different on that Blue Island. But across the state, as I think even Lieutenant Governor Patrick mentioned, there's a lot of resistance to, even among Democratic voters, to increasing their property taxes, say to pay for school bonds or to pay for a higher than average school tax rate. So So there's a strong resistance to increase in spending, but... There are going to be islands, and maybe Travis County and the city of Austin are two islands where people still want to see the taxes go up for causes that they support. And a lot of people want off that island. Okay, guys, let's take a break. Our parting shots next, Battleground, Texas. All right, welcome back. Time now for our parting shots, and I'll start. Homebuilders in South Texas essentially sending a message to the White House, keep your hands off our undocumented workforce or Republicans will lose the White House in 2028. Now, in a statement sent to me, the president of the National Homebuilders Association didn't condemn that threat or address how members are using non-citizens on the job site, not paying federal taxes, not providing work comp. But he did say that they have long advocated for For secure borders, a system for employers to verify Verify work eligibility and for the workers to be able to contribute without fear of deportation. All right, so it's in the Democrats' hands. Mark, what's on your mind? Well, Rudy, we're a state of 32 million, but we have only one National Hockey League team, the Dallas Stars up in Dallas. However, a recent poll by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows that there's really strong support and enthusiasm here in Houston to get a team, and we know the NHL has given the option to billionaire Dan Friedkin to have one either in Austin or Dallas, I mean Austin or Houston at least tentatively. One rub though for Friedkin and his group here in at least Houston is that an overwhelming majority of Harris County voters say no public funds should go to the construction of the needed new NHL arena. Greg? Lots of chatter about the Republican majority in the state Senate severely limiting incoming Lieutenant Governor Vicki Goodwin's authority to a bare minimum while setting its rules for the upcoming session. That might sound like solid defense, but it could come at a price in the lower chamber where presumed House Speaker Sybronia Thompson could retaliate against GOP overreach in the Senate by limiting or completely eliminating Republican committee chairmanships. Rudy? All right, that's all the time we have. You can see more of our interviews, segments by going to our YouTube pages, and you can keep the conversation going on social media. And thank you for joining us. You can watch Battleground on Thursdays at 3 p.m. on Fox Local or Sunday nights on your Dallas, Houston, and Houston Fox stations. Vaya con Dios.