James Kaufman reports on a significant M2.05 solar flare from sunspot 4043, one of the strongest in weeks. He discusses an ongoing G1 geomagnetic storm driven by solar winds and expresses suspicion regarding missing LASCO data, suggesting a potential \"halo flare\" may be heading toward Earth. He notes a discrepancy between expected peak solar cycle activity and current observations.
James Kaufman, World News Report, today, March 27th, 2025.
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Ladies and gentlemen, we've had a M-Flare.
It's one of the strongest M-Flares we've seen in several weeks.
An M2.05 Solar Flare.
And that's going to be expelled by sunspot 4043
that we'll take a look at right now.
By the way, we're still under the geomagnetic storm, and it's
definitely being caused by solar winds like it should be at this point.
All right, we're going to run through this quick.
That M2.05 generator from 4043,
the only thing to generate any solar flares today.
Very little activity on our solar disk,
1% chance of X-class solar flare, 25% chance
of an M-class solar flare,
and we're still maintaining a C-baseline flare, unbelievably.
All right, looking at HMI and Heliogram,
we have seven sunspots that are earth-facing,
one of them is just around the limb here.
Most of them are all simple sunspots.
4043 is the only one to flare all day long.
That did produce the M2.05 solar flare.
I believe it was a much larger flare,
and I believe it was a halo flare,
as LASCO and NOAA have cut out a ton of data, as I will show you now.
First off, they've moved LASCO so it's every 30 minutes now.
Very strange.
Every 30 minutes instead of every 12 minutes, we get a picture.
It seems like we're backtracking, not going forward.
But all of a sudden.
At 6.30, bam, we miss, or I guess about eight hours
is taken away from LASCO, and you can see
the difference. You can see that coronal mass ejection going out
in all different ways. That
happened right here, as we just saw,
and it looks like eight hours, they hid the solar flare because
it was so large, and as you move forward,
again, only every 30 minutes is given to us.
You can see that plasma moving away from the sun,
both at the five o'clock position, two o'clock position,
and I believe it may have an Earth component to it.
I believe this may be an attempt to hide first the strength
of the solar flare, and then the fact that it may be a halo flare,
a larger flare that might strike Earth in about 48 hours or less.
Over to our estimated Planetary KP Index,
and it gives you a combo of the solar winds and plasma
that are striking Earth.
We see that we have 12 hours of a G1 geomagnetic storm today,
all based on very strong solar winds.
No plasma exists like it did yesterday,
which again, I still can't explain plasma of 36 centimeters cubed.
With their guesstimates from 4 to 6 centimeters cubed.
Finally, jumping over to our Discovery Real-Time Satellite.
We see that, first off, our shields are down here.
Not a great situation to be in,
but they often are very weak near the equinoxes twice a year.
We had some pretty decent plasma today.
This is really the end of the day yesterday.
And today, we're still having plasma
that would be considered space weather.
Then all of a sudden, that dropped off along the solar winds
and temperature almost to nothing.
Very hard to explain.
Plasma continues to drop.
I wasn't expecting plasma in the first place.
Solar winds pop up to 708 and continue to rise.
We have some readings.
There's an 842 here.
And we can see that the temperature is just above normal.
And...
It did some crazies during this time period here.
I'm not quite sure what occurred here,
but again, we were in space weather territory with our plasma.
That went to nothing. We had
a plasma of 0.19. As we see here is four.
As we see here is 0.74, but solar winds
have ticked way up to 850. 850 twice there that we see.
And temperatures are not as elevated as I would think,
but solar winds are just about where they guesstimated them.
They're just, well, I guess they were just a day early, perhaps.
So this is what we have, folks.
We're currently in a geomagnetic storm,
and it's part of the solar winds from the coronal hole.
Now, that coronal hole is almost, well, gone.
This is the huge coronal hole that's
been giving us heck for the last 48
to 72 hours and i would say that well
by tomorrow we should see things let up completely
and we do have some sunspots
that look active coming around the limb here and we have
the two or three sunspots
are active up here including 4043 that pumped out the
M 2.05 solar flare one of the biggest flares we've seen in weeks
And remember, we're in March,
which is supposed to be the busiest month of the solar flare
season, according to NOAA and NASA,
and we're at the peak of an 11-year cycle, which means
we should be seeing tons of activity, and we're not.
Very strange, again.
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