Previewing Lions-Dolphins and College Football this weekend

What is up? Welcome to another edition of the Sports Office. It is great to have you here. Look at you. You're beautiful. Thank you, Dan. Look at you. All dressed up in your Canes gear. As befitting the number one team in the nation. First playoff rankings come out. I am ready. Who's number one? The Canes are. Dino might, my friend. And how do they celebrate? They lose their best player. Oh! We'll talk more about that coming up. Oh, man. Listen. Things happen. This is a sports show. We're talking about sports. I'm still not worried. Yeah. Listen, you can join the show. We'd love to have you do it. You can text the show. There's the phone number right there. Give us your name. Give us a shout out. Let us know what you want to talk about. If there's a game you want to hit on, because you know it's Thursday night. We're talking about the big games. If you want to join us by Zoom, there's the meeting ID number right there, and there's a little button you hit, and you can pop into the Zoom room and say what's up. Let's bring in our guy, Dave Ross from Beeson, who joins us every Thursday night. All right, Dave. What's up, Dave Ross? All right, Dave. That's for Woody. It's all about the U. You know it. That's right. It is all about the U. Even without Malachi Toney, it is still all about the U. You know what, Dan? This injury to Malachi Toney is really going to mess with his Heisman votes because now, who is it, Darian Mensah? You give it to the quarterback now? It's hard to get votes if you're not playing. Do we have a leader in the house, Dave, when he goes down? Yeah, I think Mensah's the right call here. Look, if you want to really, with this big game coming up tomorrow, or Saturday night in South Bend, some people might look to C.J. Carr and say, okay, if Notre Dame can run roughshod for a longer shot down the board, this could be that type of game that all eyes are on it. And if he looks good against the, what are you, sorry, a bad pass defense in Miami, Florida, then maybe Carr can get back in there. But if Mensah goes out there, And balls out without Tony, and they upset the Irish. I'm not saying hand them the Heisman now, but if you do that without Malachi Tony, guys, I think that Mensah would clearly be the leader in the clubhouse come Sunday morning in the odds board. Oh, my goodness. I can't wait to play. Who's wrong? You're wrong with this guy, okay? Who's wrong? You're wrong, Dave. It's coming up soon. Let me ask you about Notre Dame, because that was one of the teams you talked about last week. When you said you were looking to see if they put up style points against Navy. Now, they didn't cover. Did they get style points? I don't think so, Dan. But really, at this point, it's almost immaterial. And I was on North Carolina in the points against Miami. But I did lay the points with Notre Dame against Navy. And that didn't work out. So the way I look at it now is. The rest of the schedule does not matter for Notre Dame. Really not. I mean, obviously, they can't lose any of those games. But if they beat Miami, they're clearly in. That's why the committee had them in 11 when it came out on Tuesday night. If they lose... There's still an outside shot that Notre Dame could get in even with a second loss and no good top 20 wins potentially left on their schedule to be had. And that would be if everybody else keeps losing and you get three losses with the big boys in the Big Ten and the SEC and the like. And it's a quote unquote good loss. There is no love for me with Notre Dame, but they have mastered the art of selling America on the good loss. BYU somehow is a good loss. They get robbed by the officials. If they lose to Miami and it's by three and maybe there's some questionable call, they'll call it a good loss. I don't look at it that way, but the committee wants Notre Dame in this thing. That's why there's a provision. For one school and one school only, that if they end up inside the top 12, at the end of the day, they are automatically in. I don't know why they would agree to that provision, but they did it a couple years ago. That shows you how much Notre Dame moves the meter. So I think they'll move heaven and earth if they need to, to figure out a way to get Notre Dame in this thing at the end of the day. I am so tired of hearing about that small-time operation in South Bend. You know, I mean, everybody talks about them on a national stage. They have done nothing. Do you miss the days of Catholics versus convicts? I do, and you know what? Dan, I miss the days of Miami being independent when we could schedule everybody. And if we did that now, imagine if we did that now. There would be no discussion, nothing. It's Canes all the way because you'd have to beat, like, a Notre Dame, an Alabama, a Clemson, whoever you want. Put them on the schedule. That's what I want. I tell you this, guys, this number, because of the Tony injury, has gotten inflated. Remember, this opened up at about three and a half, immediately went up to five and a half. Then we get the news yesterday about Malachi being out. It's up to seven and a half, eight in some spots, guys. Are you taking that number, Dave? Look, it would be dog or pass for me. I could only take Miami and the points at this spot. And look, it should be set up perfectly for Notre Dame to get this win. They've got to get it. People like to bet on the due factor. I would never bet that way, people. I would caution against doing that. But here's what I'd say, Woody, and you know this better than most when you look at your Canes. Their run defense is elite. It's really good. The problem is in the back half, right? So they should still be able to move the football here with Mensah and Fletcher. And we'll see if these other receivers can now pick up the weight. It's Miami. I would think they're going to be okay. So based on that, if I can get eight, dare I say eight and a half, if that pops, I'm going to keep waiting. And I will probably end up being on the side on Miami plus the points and keep this thing inside of a touchdown. And all the pressures on Marcus Freeman. Look, Miami's already got an out clause. Our best player is not going to be there. You can't committee count against us four weeks from now. When we get to the college football playoff, Miami can probably make that argument. Notre Dame can't. So sometimes in those games, you have to win. The pressure is on that team. And if it's tight in the fourth quarter, you better believe Notre Dame is going to feel it. And Miami might be playing loose and free with house money here. I'd rather be grabbing the points for the Canes with this inflated price point. Dave, repeat after me, Dave. Blow out. Canes, blow out. Say it with me. I'm trying to figure out, Dave, how we look at this playoff picture because a lot of what we're talking about is teams trying to get themselves in position. You got Texas with two losses, Alabama with two losses, Ole Miss with two losses, Ohio State with two losses, Tennessee LSU with two losses. They're on the outside looking in right now. But all these teams with two losses, and they've still got tough games on their schedule. Ole Miss this week obviously has a tough game. They could very well end up with a third loss this week. I mean... How this thing shakes out is going to be fascinating. I think, Dan, too, the consternation from what I heard, at least in the betting market, was Alabama being at five, right? I think when you see Tennessee, first one out there at 13, if you will, and Tennessee beat Alabama pretty badly a couple weeks ago, not that long ago, right? And they go, well, what about us, right? So you're going to get all those two-loss teams, two-loss teams. We're going to have a three-loss team in this thing. Now, last year, at least, right, and last year they broke precedent. By allowing Alabama to be the first one in with three losses. But the caveat there was, it was an SEC title game loss. That was their third loss. So the committee valued the big-time schools getting to their big-time conference championship game. We'll see if that holds true this year in the Big Ten and the SEC. But because they laid that groundwork last year, I think for the first time we'll get a three-loss team that's not in their conference championship game. I'm not sure which two schools those will be yet. But I think you'll see that for the first time. A true three-loss school without playing in a conference championship game will make the college football playoff. I mean, Ole Miss is sitting at 10 right now. They got Georgia this week. They could very easily be sitting on three losses after this. I mean, is a loss to Georgia, the second-ranked team in the current playoff rankings, is that enough for people to say, is that a good loss? Let's go back to our Notre Dame story. Is that a good loss, or do you say, you know what, that's number three, we're dropping you to 17? Yeah, Dan, I hate the good loss argument, but that's what they're going to do. That's how they're going to sell it. The ADs will sell it and try to push their schools along because they have to do it. Who'd you beat? That's what I need to know. Who did you beat? Right. Especially when you play in those big boy conferences. Look, you know, Georgia lost to Auburn, right? We don't look at Auburn as an elite school right now in the SEC, but again, Georgia's got a great win at Alabama. They can say, okay, yeah, we had a bad loss, but we had a great win on the road. So that's what I want to hear, Dan, from the committee. Are we valuing wins? Who'd you actually beat? Or good losses? Because if it's good losses, Notre Dame will have two of the best if BYU beats Utah in the Holy War on Saturday. And they can say, look, we lost to BYU, and they're still one of the top teams in the country. And we lost to the number one team in the country. We have great losses, but they don't have any good wins. So to me, I got to value wins. And again, sorry, Notre Dame fans, get in a conference. Playing a big-boy conference, and then you can have the good wins that Georgia has, that teams in the Big Ten have, because they play killers week in and week out, and that's the difference from being an independent and playing in a big-boy conference. Yeah, we're definitely seeing that. Hey, listen, Benjamin checked in on the Motor City Casino Hotel live line. Um, cue the sad trombone music. But we do have Michigan State playing Michigan this week, and he wants to know how you're looking at that. It's Michigan favored by 13-and-a-half. This is not... The normal hype that we get for a Michigan-Michigan State game, it feels like it's a gap year that we're taking in this matchup. Here's how I'd answer that to all your viewers that are watching or listening out there. How many points do you think Sparty will score in the big house? To me, that's the first question you have to answer. If they can get to double digits, and we're talking about one of those suppressed totals under 40 this week, do that math. If Sparty can get to 14 and you think Michigan's going to cover, then you play the over, which I think is sitting around 39 and a half right now, right? That's another way to play it, depending on how much you think, if you think Michigan State gets to double digits. I, for one, think they will. And because we all know this is going to be their Super Bowl now this year, I would rather be on the side of taking Sparty with the points than laying two touchdowns with this Michigan offense. We just have no evidence. To say that they're going to go out and land base somebody by three touchdowns or more. That's the way I'd play it. I'd have to take the points with Sparty in this. Now you're talking sense, Dave. Now you're talking sense. Because this reminds me of last week's matchup with Michigan and Rutgers, okay? Rutgers comes in without their starting quarterback and all that. It was a 14-point spread. And what happened? It was a tight game. And what did I say to you? I said Rutgers will win outright. And they almost did. I think Sparty could be in a similar vein in this because I think, look, I must just come out and say it. I think Michigan's fraudulent. I think they are. I don't think their defense is fraudulent. Look, it's a team game. The whole team. I understand that, but I don't think their defense is. I think that's what we have to see. But again, that defense didn't look as good as it had against Rutgers in that game. Rutgers was able to score points, and that didn't look like the Michigan defense we had seen in their previous games, even in, we're not going to call them good losses. With a backup QB. Yes. Yeah, guys, I was surprised. Woody, you were spot on. I did not think that the Rutgers would be able to move it like that against the Wolverines' defense a week ago. Not saying that that will happen again this week, but how many points can Sparty score? Do that math in your head. That will get you to a total or a side. Dave Ross, Beeson, he's our guest. We're going to talk some NFL when we come back. He was on the right side of Lions and Vikings. Stick with us. Fox Local. Hey, Dan, going to Germany. Hopefully we can have some beers together. Steve McComb. Steve, I don't drink when I'm on the road. Great. Why? Tom and Lapierre would like to know, why is Woody so defensive and angry over the U? Well, you know what? Here's why. The U really strikes a chord with me, because having gone there and having graduated from there, it is my school. And when I hear people talk about my school in a negative way, the same way that Michigan fans, when they hear people talk about Michigan in a negative way, they get chesty a little bit. They want to throw it out there and tell you exactly what's going on. Yes, what? Remember when they blew a 30-point halftime lead? Remember that? I was at that game against Maryland back in the day. Yeah, I was there, Greg. Thanks for the reminder. Appreciate that, you know. But, hey, nobody talks about the 58 straight games we won in the Orange Bowl. Nobody, you know, wants to talk about how we go on the road and handle things like we're going to do this week in Notre Dame in South Bend. We're going to talk next Saturday. Please do. Please do. Listen. Bring it. It's right there for you. It's right there for you. Dave Ross from VSiN, our guest here. We've got folks checking in on the Motor City Casino Hotel Live line. There it is. We're angry. Question was, if the Lions lose to Miami, does it take away from their win against the Vikings? Yes, it absolutely does. You can't go down there and lose after you beat the Vikings. Dave Ross, you were on the right side of that one. I believe you told us you got three early in the week. You were on the right side. Even though you picked the Vikings to win the NFC North, you were on the right side of that thing. Now the Vikings make a change at quarterback, too. And let me tell you something. As good as their defense is, that offense is not good, man. How do you overthrow Justin Jefferson? He jumps 11 feet in the air. Wasn't he only targeted once in the second half? He was targeted more than once, and his body language was rough. Crazy. Rough. I'm surprised, guys, they're going to Carson Wentz, as you guys alluded to, with that injury to Kyler Murray here. I wouldn't be shocked. Just keep this name in your radar before the trade deadline. Daniel Jones out of Indianapolis. Remember, he got scooped up by KOC. He was in the practice squad. They brought him up at the end of the year. He was actually on the active roster at the end of it. You know that, Dan. You know how this works with coaches. They've got an affinity for certain guys. If Carson Wentz does not look like old Carson Wentz here and says, yeah, we can hold down the fort until Kyler Murray comes back, they might look at a guy like Daniel Jones as an upgrade with that elite defense that they have. Look, you guys, I told you I like the Vikings at that price point. I keep saying it. I am hopping off that bandwagon. I don't trust that offense at all. I think this division is wide open. And when I say wide open. I'm talking about all four teams in this division. I think we're overlooking Green Bay, and I know they've got problems in the running back room there. We'll find out what the league does there. But they're going to get Micah Parsons back, and as great as an addition as Jeffrey Simmons is to that Bears front, that's going to be Micah in three short weeks coming back for the Packers. An elite player like that makes a massive difference in an already good defense. Watch out for Green Bay. Don't sleep on those guys at 5-3. All right, Dave, I got this stat handed to me. About big NFL favorites. NFL favorites of seven or more are 6, 20, and 3 this year against the spread. That's the worst start in the Super Bowl era. We got five games this week. Jags minus 10 over the Ravens. Lions minus 7 over the Dolphins. Chiefs 10 over the Jets. 49ers 10 over the Raiders. Seahawks 8.5 over the Cardinals. These games, though, tend to be within a score or two in the fourth quarter. I'm looking at the Dolphins, the Lions' next opponent. They're 1-6. Their last four games have all been within one score, and they've won one of them. So, I mean, it's hard to blow teams out in this league consistently. Yeah, right there with you, Dan. You laid it out perfectly. I'm a dog player traditionally anyway, and I'm on four of those five big dogs that you talked about this week. The only game I'm not touching out of that group of five that you listed is the Chiefs and Jets. I'm staying away from that one. It feels a little bit trappy to me. But the other four, I'm on all the dogs. And I'll tell you this about the Dolphins. You laid it out perfectly. I've been on them a lot the last couple of weeks. I thought they should have won the game outright. They had a 10-point lead last week against New England. Had a big play they could have made early in that third quarter when they were still up 10. On a fourth down, didn't get it. And then they kind of flipped the tide, but still got inside that number of seven last week to cash that ticket. Two weeks ago, they got their first win against the Jets. They should have really been in with the Chiefs. You remember that game. Ended up losing it right there in the closing number of seven. They're much closer than people think. And you know this from being in locker rooms for many years like I do. It's not the coaches saying, hey, don't let down. They know that. Players know that. Coaches are drilling it into their head. The Lions know they're better. It's human nature to me. You go down to South Beach. Your touchdown favorite, we're just trying to get out of dodge with a victory and not get injured. And sometimes in those sleepy type non-conference games like this will be, they pose a lot of problems. And the Dolphins are hungry, they're playing like it. They're playing like they're playing for a first year head coach that's trying to establish a culture week in and week out, and they're getting closer. I like the Dolphins plus the seven. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a one-score game late down there in South Beach. We talked with Amon-Ra St. Brown today. Topic of the Miami Dolphins came up and the idea that, you know, this going down to take on a team like this is one of those things where it's almost a mirror image of what the Lions were a couple of years ago. Dan Campbell says they remind him of the Lions. Right. That they were when they're coming up and starting to figure things out and get things in place, the right personnel, the right coaching, all that. And so, yeah, will they maybe jump ahead, you know, a little bit? Maybe. Will they step behind? But I got to think that the Lions have to maintain their focus and their momentum here and get this game on Sunday. They have to get it. So I agree. Yep. Go ahead, Dave. I was just going to say with the injuries, the unfortunate injuries, just so glad that Campbell looks like he's on his way to recovery, which is such a breath of fresh air. I know everybody's nervous about that across the country, but those are real injuries they have now to that defense as well. Malik Willis is playing better. He's kind of seems like he's starting to learn that offense a little bit. This is guys coming from the Green Bay Braintrust a year ago down there to South Beach. They know the lines very well. I think it's a dangerous game for Detroit this weekend. So, a couple things I want to throw at you. Texans and Chargers. Look, I thought at the beginning of the year, you had a lot of people that loved the Chargers. And I did not get, I didn't get it. Because this quarterback to me, Dave, has never shown anything yet, in terms of consistency. He's not showing it this year, but I did not see 0-7. This is stunning. Well, if I was engaged to Madison Beer, I'd be distracted too. I mean, I don't know if that's what's happening, but Justin Herbert, it just seems like, I don't know where his head is. I really don't. Tom Brady was married to a supermodel and winning Super Bowls. Good point. It didn't end so well, but you're right. They had a great run there for a while. They had an emotional cup of coffee. I don't know what you're talking about. Good one, Dan. I can only back the Texans in this spot. Shame me once. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me six times, shame on me. I back the Chargers way too often this year. I got nothing to show for it. I really thought Jim Harbaugh could right the ship if anybody could. He cannot. You know, I thought McDaniels coming over as the OC, it was going to be that ultimate odd couple, right? Straight-laced guy and this really aloof guy. They're going to work out how, you know, just like the old TV show. It's not worked out at all. I think he'll be the scapegoat at the end of the day here. And I just don't see any end in sight for this football team. They have not covered, forget about winning, they have not covered one point spread so far this year. And I don't think it's going to start against Houston. By the way, Houston at plus $1.80, I found out there, to make the postseason, this is kind of what they do this time of year. I trust DeMeco Ryans a lot. And that defense is going to start playing better football. Give me that price point plus $1.80. I think Houston at the end of the year, they might not win this division and run down Jacksonville. They're going to be a playoff team in my eyes. And C.J. Stroud quietly is playing really good football. He is going to make himself some money, betting on himself a little bit. Hey, Dave, good stuff, man. We appreciate it. Dave Ross, good to see you. Enjoyed this right there. Go with us every Thursday night talking about the big games coming up this weekend. We will close out this edition of the Sports Office right after this. Stick with us. Question from the Motor City Casino Hotel Live Line. Bet on it! Yeah, where did Dan go to school? Much love, Sports Office. George Mason University. Otherwise known as the Duke Blue Devils of Fairfax, Virginia. Final four, 2006. I was going to say, you had a final four appearance there. I don't need anything from them the rest of my life. They went to the final four in 2006. The rest of my life, I play with house money. Good job. Where do you put the Lions in the division? I hate this, but at best, I say second over the Packers and Vikings. We'll see what happens when we play the Bears. Hey, look, right now, I think Chicago is trending as the best team in the division. But you know what? There's two head-to-head matchups coming up. Then we're going to see what happens. But when you go to, we talked about this last night, when you go to Seattle and put up a win like that, you turn heads. Exactly. They're going to be here Thanksgiving Day. Let's see what happens. Yeah, you know, I thought the game with the Bears in Seattle would be a lot closer. But to see like a 17-point win over them in Seattle. Really impressive. And they had Seattle rattled. They did. You don't see that very often in their house. The Bears have a lot of people rattled. They do. They're playing well. Let's see what happens. Say goodbye. Long season. Say goodbye. Hey, goodbye. Thank you for being here. We'll see you again tomorrow night. You will in the sports office.