What the historic Democrat midterm surge means for Canada

Have you seen something like this before? No, I haven't. But I am reminded as a student of history of something that happened in 1954 when there was another thug, sort of bullying, taunting kind of dominant presence among Republicans, a man named Joe McCarthy. And because of Joe McCarthy's cartoonish excesses, he cost the sainted Dwight Eisenhower A stinging loss in the 1954 midterms. So I do think that we have seen a bit of an echo of that in that the kind of worldwide wrestling federation tactics of being a cartoonish villain is repudiated this time. This time, I think Americans were willing to put up with it for 10 years because it. It did them well in terms of the stock market, and they seem to think that gasoline and groceries weren't so expensive. That changed over the last few months, and so I think that's the trend to look at. And I begin to wonder, Rob, you know, what the United States is now. Yes, Texas has been trending purple for some time, but to go from a reliably red state not that long ago to now blue with both the senator and the governor, and add into that where I'm talking to you from, Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed becoming the next senator, what does this portend to you about where American politics is now? Well, where American politics is, is somebody who lived a long time in Washington, D.C. I can tell you where it is. One campaign season has ended. The next one has begun this morning, and that's the presidential campaign. And that's one that Canada is going to have to watch very closely. What lessons, what messages are those who would lead both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party pulling out of the wreckage of last night's results for the Republicans? That campaign has begun. In the interim, though, in the interim, I do think it behooves Canada to be aware of the fact that the Democrats do not have a supermajority. Donald Trump still has a veto. He's sounding soothing this morning. But everybody that I've spoken to, and I spoke to a couple of people last night before retiring who are involved in significant trade with the United States, they're telling their clients to expect tumult. And Tumult isn't good when it comes to trade. Certainly is not. There is a question about whether anything will get done on a domestic agenda with the Democrats holding both houses of Congress. They may try to push legislation. Trump is likely to veto it. And so everything becomes sort of static. Let me ask you, though, on that trade front with Canada, it seems as if Mark Carney is comfortable even waiting it out until Trump is not there. What is the risk if that is the approach? Well, the risk is that Donald Trump remains president and remains the man who is in charge of trade policy for the United States for the next two years. Thank I heard Rosemary's clips that she thinks it would be perilous for him to go ahead and put a 50% extra tariff on autos. you Maybe. But he still has the power to significantly damage Canada's economy. very I think... What we should watch for now is those in the Republican parties who who are going to be left, are they bitter enders? Are they mega Trump Republicans? He's had them in a headlock for more than a decade. Their choice for them is fealty to Trump or to go down in the face of voters. Are they going to try to nudge him towards being more reasonable on tariffs? I think that's what we need to watch for. On the Canadian side, there is a risk for the prime minister, even if it's a great deal. Even if Canada gets a good deal, there is a risk of being associated in any way with Donald Trump. The prime minister is the prime minister. He has acknowledged this because of his opposition to Trump, because of the way he's dealt with Trump. So he has to be very, very wary. But if there is a deal that actually can be enforced. can be respected by Donald Trump. That's in Canada's interest. I think the prime minister would have a look at it. Rob, you mentioned the next race begins today, and that is for the next U.S. president. But you also talk about fealty to the current president from many Republicans. I would say that was true for the first 20, 21 months of this second term. But look, in this state, in Michigan, Once again, the Close to Trump Republican candidate for Senate ended up in an ad slamming his tariffs while holding a Labatt's beer. Are we now going to see more potential Republican candidates for president doing what they can to distance themselves from Donald Trump? If prices remain high, the cost of gasoline remains high, if there's nothing in it for those Republicans, yes. But, you know, the vulgarity, the bullying, the taunting, all of that served those people and MAGA supporters well for a decade. It's almost like it didn't matter to them Until it mattered to swing voters. I mean, we all know U.S. presidents are effectively elected on the prices of gasoline and groceries. If those prices remain elevated, perhaps those Republicans will begin to get off their knees and fight for their constituents. Um, I, I... If I were J.D. Vance, if I were Marco Rubio, I would be feeling the pressure under the seat in a huge, huge way. Those guys are on the hot seat now. Let's see what they do over the next couple of years. And I do believe that Mr. Trump, even though he suffered a thumping and stinging rebuke, will try to maintain control of the Republican Party. Even after he's president, he's going to try to do that. So nobody should have any, any illusions about whether or not Donald Trump We'll continue to try and exert his influence over the Republican Party and do it in a way that keeps that Trumpian face on what has been a very successful vehicle up until now. And it only stalled, that vehicle stalled and crashed last night only because of those external factors, not because of the vulgarity, not because of the clownish behavior, not because of the bullying, you know. The only people who, you know, capitals around the world are probably thinking this is the dawning of a new age. Maybe not in Moscow, maybe not in Pyongyang, but I think we need to be cautious about that. Yeah, well said. It is a good warning that it is not a complete change of the slate. Okay, Rob Russo, always good to chat. I know you're going to be watching this and I know we'll be talking again. Thank you. Bye-bye, David.