Netanyahu's eight-seat problem

Netanyahu's bloc won the most seats in Israel's election, but he's eight short of being able to form a government. To stay in power, he'll have to turn to people who wanted him out. He needs 61 seats. His political party, Likud, has 27. Add to that his coalition partners, and he's on 53. So where can he get eight more? Well, Netanyahu could turn to right-wing opposition figures Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman as potential partners. That would get him to 72. Problem is, both have ruled out joining him. Bennett accused Netanyahu of destroying the country while Lieberman vowed never to sit in a government with him. But even if he changed their mind, he would then likely lose his religious allies. They want to preserve military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men, a position that clashes with Bennett and Lieberman's, bringing him back down to 59. So let's look at another option. the Democrats led by Ariel Cohen could get Netanyahu to the 61 seat threshold. But Golan has ruled out joining a government with far-right politicians Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, accusing their parties of undermining democracy and promoting racism. And Netanyahu can't risk losing either of them. Let's reset again. The biggest option of them all would be a national unity government with Gadi Eisenkot. This would give Netanyahu a comfortable majority of 74 seats. But Eisenkot has ruled out serving under Netanyahu, blaming him for October 7 security failures and citing worries over his corruption trial. So while a deal with Eisenkot may keep Netanyahu's existing allies on board, it means he has to bring his biggest political rival on side. Let's try a final scenario, a nightmare for Netanyahu, and therefore the least likely option, relying on Arab parties to get him over the line. Their 19 seats could tip the balance. But Netanyahu has called such cooperation shameful, and his far-right allies have drawn a red line against it. It would satisfy neither Likud nor his existing coalition partners, potentially sinking his government before it even takes shape. But Netanyahu has one card left to play. Time. He remains caretaker prime minister while talks continue. He's likely to get the president's mandate, giving him 28 days plus a possible two-week extension to form a government. If he fails, the opposition gets a chance. If nobody succeeds, Israel could face another election. And Netanyahu knows deadlock can work in his favor. He got himself back into power by capitalizing on divisions among the coalition that briefly ousted him in 2021. History may not repeat itself, But every week without a new government keeps Netanyahu in the office he's held for almost 20 years. His dilemma now is whether he can convince his opponents to break their promise to voters who supported them precisely because they wanted him out, or risk losing the loyal allies he still has.