US midterms 2026 latest: Polls open in test for Trump

Aljazeera
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Nov 3, 2026
Hello, I'm Alex Marquard.
And I'm Jonah Hull.
And welcome to Al Jazeera's special coverage
of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections live from
the nation's capital.
Millions of Americans are voting in a contest
that could reshape Congress and the final
two years of Donald Trump's presidency.
Voting is now officially underway,
and as the numbers come in, we'll tell you what's
at stake for the control of Congress,
for the affordability crisis, and the global consequences
of the war in Iran.
And I'm Scott McLean here at the decision desk.
All 435 seats in the U.S. House are up for grabs,
along with 35 Senate seats.
Now, as the polls start to close, you will start to see
this map populate with red for Republican, blue for Democrat,
as we start to see which party is on track to control Congress.
We have correspondents in several key states this hour in Texas,
Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York,
Florida, as well as at the White House.
And throughout the night, our teams across the country
and our experts in studio will be helping us understand how
this critical election is shaping the future of the country.
In Maine, Collins fights for her political life.
In North Carolina, a red state turning purple.
In Georgia, Ossoff's seat, Republicans, last chance.
In Wisconsin, razor thin and ready to flip.
In Arizona, where election distrust runs deep.
In Iowa, a red state, or maybe not.
In Ohio, Trump country, not so safe.
And we're in Washington, D.C.,
where every single one of these congressional races lands.
Right now, Republicans control 53 seats in the U.S. Senate.
Democrats, for all intents and purposes, control 47 of them.
We've been talking a lot about this blue wave that's coming.
Frankly, Republicans have some pretty good
flood defenses when it comes to the Senate.
I'll show you exactly why.
This is the state of play.
All the yellow ones, these are the toss-ups.
These are the states that the parties are really competing in,
putting all of their money in.
And frankly, this map tilts very heavily in favor of the Republicans.
I'll show you why.
If you think that the momentum is with the Democrats, you'd
at least give them most of the real estate that they currently hold.
We'll talk about Michigan in one moment.
You'd probably also give them North Carolina,
former governor on the ballot, very popular, polling very well.
You might also give them Ohio.
But, look, Republicans, certainly not accustomed
to losing in places like Maine, South Carolina,
definitely not Mississippi, certainly not Nebraska.
And in Kansas, they haven't elected a Democrat since the 1930s.
Iowa has been a swing state in the past, but not very recently.
It's made a pretty hard turn to the right.
So now you're left with these three states that may control,
may determine control of
the United States Senate.
Let's talk about the state of Michigan.
Of course, you've got Mike Rogers on the ballot for the Republicans.
He is a former FBI agent.
Abdel Al-Sayed would
be the very first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate.
Now, he hasn't been talking a lot about his own faith, but.
Mike Rogers has made it an issue in this election.
It has gotten unexpectedly expensive.
It has also gotten pretty nasty, pretty personal as well.
Abdul Syed's primary opponent, Haley Stevens,
came out and endorsed this man, Mike Rogers.
But if you believe the polling,
and this one stays in the Democratic column, that gets them to 49.
You need 51, though, for the Democrats to recontrol.
The U.S. Senate. So now let's talk about Texas.
We're on the ballot for the Republicans. It's not
the party's first choice.
Ken Paxton is Donald Trump's first choice. And a lot of Republicans
are scratching their heads wondering why,
because he has ethics allegations against him. He has
corruption allegations against him.
Even Donald Trump says, hey, you might not like the way he
looks, talks or dresses, but you still got
to vote for him. This has become.
The most expensive non-presidential race in United States history.
Again, the Democrats are citing polls showing they have
a very good chance of flipping this one.
This still only gets you to 50, though.
In this case, we're in for a long night.
And that's because we're going to talk about the state of Alaska.
Of course, we've covered this ad nauseum,
this controversy out of this state, this deeply red state,
and the two men named Dan Sullivan.
On the ballots, but Mary Peltola, she's been polling well.
The thing is, if this one is close,
we're in for a late night because Alaska, A, the
polls don't close until seven hours after
the first set of polls close here on the East
Coast.
And they count very slowly as well.
So it could be, at least until tomorrow,
possibly days, even weeks, before we know who controls
Alaska and potentially who gets control of the United States Senate.
Alex?
All right.
Thank you, Scott.
Let's go to our correspondents.
We'll start with our Phil Lavelle in Texas.
So, Phil, Donald Trump has turned deep red Texas
into a battleground state that we did
not expect.
Yeah, he absolutely has. And a lot of Republicans
are saying it just did not need to be this way.
You've got John Cornyn, who is the guy
who currently sits in that Senate seat.
He was seen as a shoo-in, like the election was almost seen
as a formality to just get him back into that position.
Donald Trump said, no, I'm backing Ken Paxton.
And that has split many Republicans.
He's a controversial figure. Many have seen these polls over
the last few weeks where Ken Paxton has not really had any lead.
In fact, it's been almost consistently
James Tallarico, maybe marginally ahead.
More latterly, he's been ahead by a number of more points,
six, seven points ahead.
And now we're seeing Republicans saying, look,
it has got to come down to you've got to get out and vote.
You've got to go out and vote today.
Ted Cruz, who is the other senator.
appeared at Ken Paxton's closing event yesterday and said,
if you don't get out and vote,
you've got to get back behind our guy,
because if you don't, you are going to lose the state of
Texas. It's not going to be it's not going
to look anything like it has done for you and the
way you want it to be. James Tallarico had his event.
He was leaning more into his faith. He
was portraying this as a battle of David and Goliath.
And he was saying this is about
sending the billionaires a message that this state, the Senate seat.
cannot be bought. And of course,
we're talking about the Senate, but there is so much going on
here that could potentially be seismic
if the results play out the way the Democrats want.
For example, we've got the governor's race.
You've got Greg Abbott, who is currently in
that position. He's been there for 14 years.
He is seeking an unprecedented fourth term.
He has been pretty much neck and neck with Gina Hinojosa,
who is the Democrat. She's a Latina
from the border. The latest poll actually has her.
One point ahead now.
That's within the margin of error.
It's not much, but it is a million miles away
from where Greg Abbott would have expected
to have been a year ago.
And then we've got the House races.
There are 38 districts in contention,
and there are a handful that have been redistricted.
You remember they were redrawn last year,
controversially, mid-decade.
The Republicans were very open about it.
They said they were doing this for political advantage,
and they were seeking an advantage of around five seats.
But look, here's the quirk with that.
They were redrawn, rather.
to tap into Latino support
because Latinos overwhelmingly voted for Donald Trump in
2024.
His support among that group, according to polling, has plummeted.
So this could potentially backfire.
So we're talking about this blue wave in about 10 hours.
We're going to see if those waters have hit the great state of Texas.
Just a remarkable landscape in Texas,
our Phil Lavelle in the capital of Texas.
And from there, let's head on up to Detroit, Michigan, where we have.
Our Richard Gaisford.
So, Richard, there was a stunning 11th hour twist
in Michigan that raised a lot of questions
about this Senate race, which, of course,
is going to be key if Democrats want to flip
the Senate.
Yeah, we're seeing the repercussions
of the weekend's activities playing out today.
Alex, I just had the most fascinating conversation with three
African-American women outside of the voting station here in Detroit.
Now, all three told me they were Democrats,
but one of them said that she was now going to be voting
for the Republican candidate for Senate, Mike Rogers,
because of what Haley Stevens has been saying across the weekend.
The Democrats in Michigan, though,
believe in large part that this has backfired on Haley Stevens.
Mike Rogers, they say more than $2 million now has
been raised for the El Saaded campaign
since she went out and made that announcement.
Certainly other black people we've been speaking to here in Detroit
are not happy at all about being used
as props in effect for that announcement
by Mike Rogers and Haley Stevens on Sunday.
Huge backlash against Haley Stevens.
When it comes to the voters, Richard,
voters in Michigan, as you and I have both heard,
are feeling this affordability crisis particularly acutely
because of the trade war with their
neighbor, Canada.
What have they been telling you, these voters, in these final hours?
Yeah, we can almost touch Canada in many
of the places we've been to here in Michigan.
And you're right, that particular aspect of the tariffs
and trade war has really hit home here
in terms of the things that people buy that come
from across the border, the prices that have gone up.
But wherever you go in Michigan, you're hearing very similar things.
They don't like the way Donald Trump has been talking.
They don't like the way that he seems
to be allying himself with the billionaire class,
not thinking about the little people
in the words of some of those we've been talking
to.
Now, to try and get a better picture of this,
we drove right up to the north of the Lower
Peninsula here in Michigan,
and you're about to hear some views that might well surprise
you coming from a deep red Republican county.
Welcome to Wolverine, Michigan, population 309,
and where residents aren't afraid to speak their minds.
That guy is crazy.
Who's crazy?
Trump. He's nuts. He don't know what he's talking about.
I hate all politicians. They're not for us.
No, they're for their, they all want money.
Well, as autumn fades into winter,
it's not just the colors of the landscape that's changing
here in Michigan.
Some congressional districts also appear to be having a shift in tone.
It's clear that very little of the money invested
into Michigan reaches Wolverine, which lies
in deep red Cheboygan County in the north of the state.
The mayor, who sits as an independent, is clearly frustrated.
Forty-six percent of our population here in Wolverine.
are below the poverty level
and the number of people that are they're touching base with me
and saying Ralph we're having difficulty making it.
What can you do to help us? And all I can do
is say hey the most important thing you can do right now is get out
and vote on Tuesday to turn
this all around. In the local hair salon you sense Republican red isn't
the favorite color choice at the moment
I grew up.
In a very conservative household.
Do you feel obliged to vote Republican?
No, absolutely not.
100% no.
And I'll stand by that every single day.
I'm not going to vote for people who...
Care more about protecting billionaires,
care more about protecting predators.
I have a child. I care about him.
I don't care about making loads of money. I care about living
humbly. In the neighboring city of Gaylord,
the talk is all about the midterms. We kind of,
we try to tone them down because no matter what your opinion,
you're going to have somebody who's
not going to agree with you. We want to keep the peace.
And since the trade war began with neighboring Canada,
Lindsay's had to stock up on Canadian
whiskey just in case supplies run dry,
businesses like this wanting economic pressures to end.
If they're going to fix the problems, you know,
I think most people would vote across
their party lines and who they voted
for in the past if it's something can actually get
done.
As a bitter winter approaches and after a fierce Senate race,
it seems whatever their
political differences.
Many here want whoever wins to bridge the political divide.
Richard Gaisford, Al Jazeera, Gaylord, Michigan.
All right. Thank you to Richard for that terrific report.
Now, Rory Challens is live in Harrisburg,
which is the capital of Pennsylvania.
So, Rory, unlike Texas and Michigan,
Pennsylvania does not have a major Senate race,
but there are four key House races. And in terms
of reading the tea leaves, those races could help tell us
which way the political winds are blowing
and help determine control of the House of Representatives.
Absolutely. And assuming that Josh Shapiro will comfortably win
the governor seat again,
he is the incumbent.
It is those down ticket races that we are really focusing on that
make Pennsylvania a battleground state.
Now, what are they? Well, they are Pennsylvania's
first district, the seventh, the eighth and the 10th,
where I am here in Harrisburg with
the state capital glinting prettily behind me.
Each of these is held by a Republican at the moment,
but each of them in the latest polling
is either leaning Democrat or is a toss-up.
And each of them also tells us something
about what's happening nationwide.
For example, if we are seeing that this election,
this midterm is a referendum on Donald Trump, well,
Pennsylvania 10th, it has an incumbent congressman,
Scott Perry, who's very, very close to Trump.
So will the unpopularity of the president bring Scott Perry down?
Then you've got Pennsylvania 8th up in the northeast of the state.
We've been spending quite a bit of time up there.
It's centered around the former coal mining city of Scranton.
Largely white, largely working class.
That's a demographic that the Democrats have had real trouble
with for many, many years now.
But the challenger there, Paige Cognetti, she is currently ahead
five points in the latest polling from the New York Times and Siena.
We were speaking to some voters up there
the other day, which run the spectrum,
we can listen to them in a second,
from Democrat through undecided to Republican.
Have a listen now, see if you can tell which is which.
Motivating my vote? Oh, definitely the issue of corruption.
I am very, very concerned that
our government is being sold to trillionaires
and billionaires who can afford to curry favor
with the administration.
I wouldn't be anything undecided at this point. Do we want communism?
You know, do we want socialism or do we want capitalism?
I myself am a capitalist.
I'm very concerned about the economy,
the Medicaid cuts, I have a son with an intellectual
developmental disability who relies on Social Security
and Medicaid, so that's an important
issue to me.
So when are we going to know about all of these races?
Well, Pennsylvania doesn't start counting
mail-in ballots until the polls open.
They already have. They opened at seven
o'clock this morning, local time.
It's not going to be a quick count.
The tighter the races are, the longer it's going to take.
So we might have to wait at least a day,
possibly two, possibly more before we find out.
Yeah, lots of drama that extend well beyond today.
Rory Challens in Pennsylvania,
Richard Gaisford in Michigan, and Phil Ville in Texas, thank
you all very much.
Now, the final stages of the Ohio race
for governor were dominated by conversation about
an attack ad, which caused outrage in both political parties.
Our Heidi Joe Castro looks at the final push in that battleground state.
48 hours. It is now or never for the future of Ohio.
These are the closing statements of the 2026 midterm elections.
We got a plan coming in the door on day one to make life better.
Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy
are vying to be Ohio's next governor.
We stand for common sense over the spread of communism.
That's what this election is about.
The billionaire candidate backed
by Donald Trump has struggled to overcome backlash for airing
this attack ad against Acton, Ohio's former health director,
featuring her estranged mother.
She lies about her past.
The ad resurfaced Acton's survival
of childhood sex abuse from her stepfather.
Police officer Jason Keeler supports Ramaswamy,
but wishes the ad never aired.
It doesn't change the way the way I'm going
to vote. But yes, I do worry that
You know, especially I guess near the end,
I would just see like, you know, right near
the home stretch just go all positive.
It's now less than 24 hours before Election Day polls open,
and here in Ohio, the early
voting turnout has already shattered previous midterm records.
Now, these nonpartisan volunteers are trying
to remind every driver who passes to cast
a ballot.
Control of the U.S. Senate is at stake
in the Ohio Senate battle between Republican
John Husted.
We are going to win this thing.
We're going to deliver Ohio as a red state again.
We're going to protect your values and your freedom.
And Democrat Sherrod Brown.
Ohioans don't have anyone fighting for you until Tuesday.
Democratic supporters lined up to see
their candidates at this rally in Columbus,
now with 12 hours to go.
What does this mean for Ohio Democrats?
I mean, I'm confident, but I'm not taking my foot off the gas.
I want this to be driven hard and fast over the finish line.
I want us to get us there.
The stakes are high and the mission urgent for both parties
as the clock counts down to a historic election in Ohio
and across the country that's now upon us.
Heidi Jo Castro, Al Jazeera, Columbus, Ohio.
OK, we also have teams in Florida, in New York and at the White House,
where we begin with Kimberly Halkett, our White House correspondent.
And Kimberly, the president has repeatedly said to voters,
pretend I'm on the ballot.
To what extent is this midterm election and a referendum
not just on his administration, but on the president himself?
It is absolutely a referendum on the U.S. president.
He's made it so, and he's asking voters to assess.
Whether or not he's done a good job
in the last two years on things like the economy,
whether or not he kept his promise about
not starting more foreign conflicts.
And so this is why the poll numbers seem
to indicate that there is likely to be a loss
of the House for Democrats, or rather for Republicans,
potentially Democrats also winning
the Senate.
Now, what does this mean for Donald Trump if this does occur?
Well, it would mean that it would paralyze his ability.
The U.S. president has
acknowledged that there
are difficult headwinds.
He said that the sitting president typically doesn't win the midterms.
So what this really comes down to now is whether
or not the president was effective in mobilizing voters.
He went to 29 events.
In 20 states in the last 32 days,
the question becomes whether or not he got his supporters
to come out to the polls or whether
or not he mobilized the political opposition, Democrats,
to put a check on his power.
Kimberly, I want to pick up on a piece of news
that emerged just as polls were opening
this morning.
The Department of Justice announcing that it
was sending election monitors to polling
stations in all 50 states.
Has that happened before?
What has happened before is that both Democrats
and Republicans for many years now have sent
out election monitors looking for things like intimidation,
looking for things like discrimination.
What's unprecedented this time is the scale of mobilization
when it comes to monitors.
Never before have we seen this large of a presence.
We know there will be approximately 1,000 monitors in all 50 states.
It's important to note, though,
that they won't be at every polling station.
They will be at selected sites.
Now, there was an attempt to try and block this election monitoring,
but a judge right here in Washington, D.C., denied that request.
Saying instead that there will be an allowance for monitors,
but there cannot be, for example,
the National Guard, anyone wearing an insignia like
a police officer that has arrest authority.
Instead, the monitors can only observe, but not interfere.
Kimberly, thank you.
Well, let's now go to John Holman, who's in Doral, Florida, for us.
And, John, the weather looks pretty clement where you are,
but we're getting reports of bad weather elsewhere in the state.
A number of polling stations that have had
to be moved. How disruptive is it?
Yeah, Jonah, it looked perfect to deliver you
that news about half an hour ago.
It was raining cats and dogs, but you have to take my word for it now
because it's really brightened up.
We've got word of about 19 polling stations that can
or will be moved here on Election Day.
It's at the tail end of hurricane season right now in the state.
And apart from the inconvenience for voters,
it also reminds us of something that's a big issue here.
And that's the cost of living, especially home insurance.
This is a state where it's the most expensive in all of the country
linked to those floods, to that bad weather, to those hurricanes.
So again, it highlights that.
Another question that it brings up
as well is how that's going to affect the
vote here on the actual day of the elections. So, so far about five
million Floridians have already cast their vote in early voting.
There's a slight lead in terms
of registered Republicans over registered Democrats that
have voted so far, but it's less than in previous years.
And even the governor, who's a Republican here,
Ron DeSantis, has said that he's slightly
concerned about that.
And Republicans were hoping for a big turnout on Election Day,
as is usually the case.
Obviously, heavy rains, floods,
some polling stations moving from one location to another.
That's not great news, perhaps.
for that big turnout.
So we'll have to see when those votes come in and counted here,
actually, in the Senate behind us,
where they're tabulated, how exactly that shakes out for
Republicans. OK, John, thank you.
Well, you'll keep us posted as the weather has its say in
Florida. Let's go now to Kristen Salumi.
She's in Tarrytown, New York, where, well, in New York
state anyway, there are reports of issues with voting machines.
What more can you tell us?
Yeah, that's right. The issue is happening across Westchester County
and at the polling station that you see behind me,
where we've been talking to election officials and voters.
The issue that they're having is in scanning the ballots.
So this is the ballot that local voters get
when they come to a polling station like this.
They can check off a candidate in each of the columns.
There's the governor's race, lieutenant governors,
other state officials in a very, very tight.
House of Representatives race going on here
in Westchester County and the 17th District.
Which incorporates other counties as well.
And what's really interesting to note
is that this balloting system is done by a company
called Liberty Vote, which was formerly the Dominion Voting System.
Now, you may recognize that name.
President Donald Trump
and some of his allies were very critical of electronic voting, and
in particular, Dominion voting.
Back when he lost in 2020, they accused the company of...
Losing votes and having partisan influence,
the company then sued Fox News and several
allies of President Donald Trump,
who made these accusations without any evidence to
support them, and Fox News ended up paying
the company some $787 million to avoid going
to trial on accusations that it had slandered the company.
But since then, the company's been bought.
by a Missouri state election official and ally of Donald Trump.
It's now called Liberty Vote.
And to be fair, it's being used in dozens of states across the country.
We only know of it being an issue here so far.
And local officials are telling everyone
that they should go ahead and vote.
They're taking the ballots,
and the ballots will be placed after they vote in a secure
bag, and they'll be hand-counted.
So they are reassuring everyone that they can go ahead
and vote, and this shouldn't
have an impact on the voting count here.
It just—
may be a bit slower because they will have
to hand count all of these ballots in what
is already promising to be a very tight race here,
at least in the House of Representatives.
Okay, Kristen, thank you, and my thanks to all our correspondents.
We'll be checking in with you throughout the day, of course.
Well, immigration enforcement has become
a major issue in the U.S. midterm elections,
particularly in Minnesota,
where a federal crackdown sparked widespread protests earlier
this year.
Although the demonstrations in the city
of Minneapolis have largely faded, the impact is still being felt.
Manuel Rapolo reports on how those tensions shaped
the political debate ahead of the midterms vote.
Earlier this year, Minneapolis became the center of a national
confrontation over President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown.
Thousands protested. Tensions escalated after federal agents shot
and killed two American citizens.
Rene Good...
And Alex Preti.
They killed my...
Did they f***ing kill that guy?
The Trump administration defends
its enforcement operations as necessary.
Underneath President Trump,
he made it very clear he was going to restore law and order
in our cities, in our towns, and in our states.
The protests that filled the streets
of Minneapolis have mostly subsided,
but the strong feelings surrounding
the immigration crackdown have not. And with midterms
fast approaching, those tensions have become part
of a much wider political debate.
debate.
At a Day of the Dead celebration,
the memories of those killed during the crackdown
are being kept alive.
Artist Mónica Vega says it's a reminder of how
the crackdown changed everyday life in the community.
That was a scary feeling,
like feeling like not safe in a place that you should feel safe.
Safe.
For some residents,
those experiences have made this election season deeply personal.
The vote is a referendum, I believe,
on whether we as a collective are willing
to tolerate what is being done to us as citizens and us as humans.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Community organizers are encouraging residents
to make their voices heard at the ballot box.
But immigration isn't their only concern.
Sentiment that people have is not only ICE, it's also the economy.
I mean, the gas prices, the access to food
and all those things are impacting all of us.
So for some people, it's a combination of both ICE
and the cost of living.
The streets may be quieter now,
but the political debate ignited here is far from over,
and the midterms will offer another measure
of just how deeply those divisions run.
Manuel Rapalo, Al Jazeera, Minneapolis.
And let's bring in our midterm election analyst
to help us break down what we're seeing so far.
John Fury is a former Republican congressional staffer
and Chris LaPatina is a Democratic strategist and political consultant.
Great to have you both with us on this very important day,
kicking off this very important day.
Chris, when it comes to Democrats,
it is hard to imagine better momentum.
We hear the word hopium that Democrats are really.
Really very hopeful about what's going
to happen today and in the coming days,
especially when you look at the polling.
How worried, though, Chris, are you that that could be a mirage?
Well, I think the smarter Democrats aren't sure yet.
So there is hope.
There's a lot of good numbers coming our way.
For those of us who have been around,
John and I, we've seen this movie many times.
So we know it's not over until it's over.
We've had about 60 million Americans have voted.
I think maybe another 60 million Americans are voting right now.
There's 470 politicians running for election.
There's a lot of numbers moving around today.
So nothing has yet been determined.
So to that point,
As the polls close, that's
when we start to talk about projections and results and votes.
What we're going to be talking about throughout the course of the day,
though, is turnout.
Turnout that we've seen until now and turnout that we're seeing today.
John, the conventional wisdom is that if turnout is high, that it's
predominantly those Democrats and independents who are coming out.
So how much is there worry, not just about Republicans
staying home today, but going even farther than that,
Republicans actually going out and voting blue?
Well, obviously, you're very concerned about that.
President Trump is pretty polarizing amongst some Republicans.
I think a high turnout election actually can help Republicans
because Republicans need low propensity voters to come out.
Those are the ones who are closest to President Trump.
And if they've been informed
or motivated by President Trump to come out and vote,
that's a good sign for Republicans.
I would say that from a Republican perspective,
The New York Times had a show that
Voters have been breaking towards Republicans' point.
Plus nine. So that's a good sign.
I think Republicans have had some pretty good momentum
with what's happened in Michigan, what's happened in Alaska.
And really, those are the focuses.
And I think that has ramifications for others, other races,
especially what happened in Michigan with Al Sayed and Haley Stevens.
And that has ramifications for Florida and New York.
And we do see more Republicans voting
on Election Day than in the run-up to Election Day.
Democrats tend to prefer absentee mail-in votes.
And to your point, John, that's also why we heard Trump.
Trump say time and time again,
pretend that I'm on the ballot because he wants those
low propensity voters to actually turn out today.
So here we are.
We have polls closing in just about eight hours' time.
Chris, when you start to look at that map
that's going to start getting populated as
the polls close on the East Coast,
what are you going to be looking at to get a sense
of the tea leaves?
I think people in Washington, the first
state they're going to look at is Florida.
Florida, even though it's a big state, it counts very quick.
It's very efficient in counting.
There's a couple of key races there, congressional races.
I think the most expensive congressional race
in the country, the Democrat.
Jared Moskowitz is trying to hold his seat in a very,
very competitive race.
I think people are going to be watching that, see how that turns out.
There's also another race up in the Tampa area,
in more central Florida, where Democrats
trying to hold.
That'll be another indicator about how
the Democrats are doing, at least as far as the
congressional races, because they'll be counted faster.
And then we'll see.
And if the Democrats have a competitive night
in the governor's race, which I don't think
people expected two, three weeks ago,
that'll be a good sign for Democrats.
Because the votes get counted up and down the East Coast.
Yeah, and then for those map nerds,
there are also two congressional districts in Kentucky
and in Indiana that people are going
to be looking at as well, both of those currently
held by Republicans.
Let's talk about closing messages, John.
Yesterday we saw the president out by the reflecting pool.
He was touting the renovation of the reflecting pool.
How did that make sense, do you think,
if the goal is to get Republicans out to vote
today?
Well, in all fairness to the president,
he's been traveling around a lot.
And I think that he couldn't pick between all
the different races that are crucial and
close.
And so he decided to reflect on the
reflecting pond, which I, you know,
You've got to give President Trump credit.
He's always thinking of something way out of the side of the box.
Whether that works or not, we'll find out.
I actually think the closing message of this campaign, though,
is what happened with Haley Stevens and Abdul Al-Sadat,
because I do think it shows kind
of where the Democratic Party is going,
and they're kind of nominating...
A Democrat who really does not like Israel very much,
and I think that's a sea change
and really does have implications.
Well, to that point, there was also some news today.
President Trump was on TV this morning,
or at least calling in, saying that aid for Israel
is going to end at the end of the year.
Why do you think he announced that today?
That's a really good question.
And I think that they've been talking about this for quite a while.
I think that there is some...
Within the Republican base, some folks think,
okay, we spent enough money on Israel, but
the timing is very curious.
I do think that Netanyahu
and Trump have been saying that maybe we should stop this aid
on military aid specifically, and you can be independent.
I think that...
I have no idea what the electoral implications are, though.
And the Israelis, we should note,
are also in the middle of their horse trading in the
wake of their elections, and Donald Trump has
been a player in that, and so there might
be a move there that has to do more with the Israelis.
Then with the U.S. side.
But because you brought up Michigan,
I want to ask you, Chris, about the implications
of Haley Stevens endorsing Mike Rogers.
She could have just been ticked off with Abdullah Syed
and stayed home and said nothing.
But instead, she went out and endorsed the Republican.
How damaging do you think that is to Al-Syed's campaign?
Well, certainly it doesn't help it.
And it also gives the Republicans something to talk about.
John just pointed out that the Republicans look
at that and say, oh, maybe we do have
some hope to win this seat, which is a very important seat.
And we'll talk about that later.
Ultimately, if he loses.
It won't be because of her and what she said.
As a matter of fact, there is an argument
that it's actually now helping him because
he seems like an underdog,
that people are picking on him and that people should rally
around him.
I think early on there was some concern in Dearborn,
where so many Muslim Americans live,
the turnout was low, the early vote was low,
so maybe that will help pick that up and we'll
see.
Again, one of these races that we will
not know until the polls close and maybe not even
after that.
So we have to pay attention throughout the day and not assume anything.
Yeah, a huge amount of backlash
by Democrats against Haley Stevens for that critical Senate seat,
which we should remind our audience, currently blue,
and Democrats are fighting tooth and nail to keep it that way.
Mike Rogers getting very, very close.
But we'll be tracking all of that throughout the day.
Chris LaPortina, John Furey, thank you both very much.
Let's go back to Scott McLean,
who is taking a closer look at some of those key House races for us.
Scott?
Hey, Alex, 218, that's the number you're going
to be hearing a lot about over the next couple of hours.
It is the number that either party needs to get to or surpass
in order to retain or regain control of this House of Congress.
If this blue wave is coming, frankly, in the House,
Republicans are a lot more vulnerable.
I'll show you what the map looks like.
I'll give you a couple of examples of where they're vulnerable.
If you go over here to Pennsylvania,
this is the 10th congressional district.
This is where you saw Rory challenge
in the Pennsylvania capital of Harrisburg.
Look at this one back in 2024.
This one was won in a squeaker.
Only about 5,000 votes separating the two candidates.
This time, the Democrats think
with a former local news anchor on the ballot
and the momentum in their court, they can win here.
Also, let's look at the 1st District of Iowa.
Christina Bohannon, Mariannette Miller-Meeks.
This is a rematch, again, of 2024.
Look, this one was actually separated by only 799 votes.
Now, if Miller-Meeks has anything going for her,
it's the fact that there is a brand new $15 billion investment
in a new steel mill there.
But the Democrats, again, momentum may be on their side.
Eric Hamm, former congressional staffer, is with us.
Eric, all right, so I mentioned some of the low-hanging fruit here.
There's not that much of it, though.
So put on your partisan hat for a second.
What's the best-case scenario here for Democrats?
Well, many believe that if this is a blue tsunami
that's actually taking place,
Democrats could get as high as 52 seats.
That's a very 252, 252 seats. I don't think Democrats
are going to go that high.
I think Democrats will likely get around 230. So I think a net
of about 15 seats. Now, we have to also take
into account Democrats woefully underperformed in 2024.
And in an off-year election,
while people still love their local politicians, we do
know that there can be some ticket splitting.
Given the fact that we have seen nearly 60
million people vote early already, that shows
that there is an enormous amount of support,
and because an overwhelming majority of those
people have been Democrats.
I suspect that we will see Democrats get to that magic number of 218.
The question is, how high can it actually go?
Okay, you mentioned ticket splitting,
and there's some cases where this may be happening
this year because there's some particularly
strong candidates in a lot of districts for
the Republicans.
I'll mention a couple of them.
We'll go back to Pennsylvania.
This is the first district.
Brian Fitzpatrick, this man is a political specimen.
I'll show you why.
This district was carried by Kamala Harris in 2024,
but look what happened to Brian Fitzpatrick.
He won it by 13 points.
Going to be tough to beat this time around.
Let's also look over here in Maine.
This is the 2nd Congressional District.
Again, blue one in 2024, one in a squeaker.
You'd think with momentum on their side,
this should be easy for the Democrats.
Maybe not, though, because this man is on the ballot.
Paul LePage, very popular former Republican governor.
This is one of the rare cases where Republicans think
that they can flip a Democratic seat in their direction.
We're also going to keep close tabs
on New York's 17th district in the Hudson Valley,
just outside of New York City.
This is where you saw Kristen Salumi earlier.
I'm going to talk about that a little bit earlier.
A lot of, a very large Jewish population here.
Mike Lawler, very much a pro-Israel Republican.
Again, this district won by Kamala Harris two years ago,
but look at Mike Lawler's totals.
He won by seven percentage points.
So, back with Eric Hamm, my question for you is, look,
How much more in the way of resources
do Democrats have to expend in some of these districts
where you have a very strong local incumbent?
I think we have to throw all of that out
because what is driving voters now more than anything is
the economy. And you just talked about New York, where Mike Lawler is.
That's a district that has
been hard hit because of the tariffs and the trade war on Canada.
And I think what we're seeing here
is while people may love their incumbent,
they certainly love having money in their pocketbooks
more. And I think that is going to be the driving figure factor.
So when you when you take that.
Along with the numbers that we're already seeing
from early person voting, I think we're
going to see Republicans really struggle,
even as incumbents believe they can hold the
line.
And what our viewers should understand
is that we're talking about about 50, 60 districts
that are really going to determine this House race,
because most of these races are really
foregone conclusions because of the way that the lines have been drawn.
Republicans have done it to this to great effect
in places like Texas, also in Florida.
We'll zoom in on the 14th congressional district.
Two years ago, this was basically the city of Tampa Bay, a little bit
of St. Petersburg across the bay there, if you know the area.
Kathy Castor won it pretty handily.
She's been in office for a long time.
Fast forward to 2026, they've changed the boundaries.
This now takes in a much more suburban, much more rural population,
more likely to vote for Mike Beltran, who's got the nickname Mega Mike.
We'll see if it works in that district.
Democrats, they've done it as well
in places like Utah, also in California.
Here's one example, the 22nd Congressional District, 2024.
This was it, Bakersfield,
this red dot in what's usually a blue state of California.
They changed the district a little bit.
Donald Trump won this district by six points two years ago.
With these new lines, he still would have won,
but only by two percentage points.
So, Eric, look.
Both parties have done this whole gerrymandering thing,
but do you concede that maybe Republicans
have been a little bit more effective?
They've been better, but I'm glad
that you brought up those three states, California,
Texas, and Florida.
And what do those three states have in common?
Large Latino populations.
And what we have seen in both Texas, especially Texas,
and Florida is that the turnout, particularly
among Latinos and young Latinos.
Has gone through the roof and what we're seeing among Latinos
is while Donald Trump won them in 2024, we believe that this year,
many of those Latinos are going to actually vote different.
And so I think that, again,
could be another reason why we see some Republican incumbents.
I guess my question for you, Eric, is, look,
we know Republicans are running on, they have a record to run on.
Democrats, do they have a strong enough message beyond
quickly just we're not Republican that can win over voters?
You got to remember, off-year elections
are about the party in power, not those that are
actually trying to beat the party in power.
And so that's going to be, again, another hurdle that
Republicans have to have, particularly
when President Donald Trump has made this election
all about himself. All right, Eric Hamm,
you'll be with us throughout the night. We appreciate it.
As always, Alex Jonah will send it upstairs to you guys.
Scott, thank you. We'll have coverage throughout the voting day
and the counting night here and
on all our digital platforms.
And as the first polls will start to close at 2300 GMT or 6 p.m.
here on the East Coast in the U.S.,
that is when we will get the earliest indications
on which party could control Congress. But for now, it's back to Doha.
