Democrats Are Winning Seven Senate Seats…Or The Polling Industry Is Broken

It’s Election Day, and Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza arrive at a binary: either Democrats pick up seven Senate seats tonight, or the polling industry has to be blown up and rebuilt. The final Times/Siena polls put Democrats ahead in all seven states that will decide the Senate, with only Iowa and Alaska inside a point, and the final NBC survey has Democrats up seven, independents going Democratic by 21, and Trump at 40 percent approval — his worst of either term. Their real question is whether the political class is underselling it, since every predictive metric points the same way and Chuck thinks the polling error is as likely to break toward Democrats as against them. Plus: a walk back through one deranged cycle, Chuck’s coma test for why Iowa tells the whole story, what a sweep actually means in Washington, why leading with impeachment would be the dumbest available move, and Miami at Notre Dame. The Projection, their election-night stream with Decision Desk HQ, starts at 6 p.m. Eastern.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS

Timeline:
00:00 Election Day and one genuinely crazy midterm cycle
08:00 Liberation Day, Virginia = forecaster, chart behind the collapse
14:00 Final polls: how the electorate moved, and a pollster’s warning
20:00 Either Dems pick up seven seats, or polling industry is dead
28:00 Kalshi’s last coin flip, Chris Murphy, and the Iowa coma test
34:00 If there’s a wave: tariffs first, impeachment last
44:00 The Projection at 6 p.m., and Catholics versus Criminals