The Real Strategy to Getting Rich in the Next 3 Years.

I have a job and I'm making some money in the market. I also invest, so how should I analyze? What kind of news is relevant to me? There's no need to assess the news so thoroughly. News that comes today can change tomorrow. Responding to news will become very difficult. I got married after taking a loan of 50,000 rupees. So what I understood is that equity alone can also be dangerous. The market is unsustainable, but your life's events are sustainable. Investing is not about chasing returns; investing is about controlling risk. If you've covered the risk, will the return come or go, and where will it go? Courage comes from conviction, patience comes from courage, Patience brings survival, and survival brings compounding. Money is made through compounding—the very mantra. There is no other way. Today we're telling you that when you open Instagram, special for you Open YouTube, open, so many voices, what is currently happening? Happening in the markets, many people are very optimistic. They're saying the next 10 years look brilliant for India. economy for the markets And some people are very pessimistic Withdrawing money leads to very conflicting opinions. Subscribe Subscribe Markets never do what you wish. This is what I have experienced in my life and you cannot forecast markets Markets have their own way. And there is a way to do your work. And I will ask you a small question Please answer. Are markets going up and down? That's exactly what's happening. Two things that are on paper for us Write in large letters: First Market Up and Down It is not linear, and the market crashes without any notice. It is very important to understand this. All the reasons we look for are ultimately pointless. It's all for television, for the media. We have a powerful desire within us humans to understand reason. You know why? Because we used to live in the forests. Now a man is sitting in the forest and near him A sound comes from the bushes; what will enter his mind? That there is an animal, any animal He will be scared. Because in animals, you have only one wealth—your life. He will be frightened, thinking there must be a lion or a snake hidden in the bushes. Then what will his mind do? Find out what I'm seeing Then he sees a snake there and will move away. And then he sees that there is nothing there—only air. When the sound of the wind blew, he wouldn't do anything; he'd just stay seated. Should he run away or stay put? How did he decide that? Look and see what it is Why did the voice occur? That's the mantra of the market. Therefore, the TV tells you every evening Why did the market fall? It doesn't speak in the morning; it will either rise or fall. It is within us if we understand the reason for anything. When I arrived, didn't we feel that we had met God? Now I can make a decision now. I can make a decision now. whether I should sit or run, as soon as the reason I understand. You think I've made up my mind now. On any given day, the price of the share is a function of two things. What is your sentiment regarding that share? about the future And what are trailing earnings? What are the earnings coming in? So everything is fine in India right now. Earnings haven't been good for two years. So, because of this, did the foreigner leave? Not at all So, when FIS used to come here, please understand very carefully. After 2008 and Up to 23, interest rates around the world were very low, as low as 0%. There were also 0% in Switzerland, in Denmark, in Japan. It was a very low-interest-rate scenario and low interest. In the rate scenario, you go outside to find the yield. Until 2021, U.S. 10-year bond yields were 0.8%, 0.9%. It increased from 2021, rose to 22 in 2022, and further increased to 23 in 2023. By the time it reached 24, it had risen to around 4%. It is currently 4.7%. So when they came to India, bond yields were 0.08%. It's 4.7% today; tell me what they will do. And what will they do with it? It's important that FIS have left, so will they return? Ask, and you will understand that yes, they will return. And whenever they return, you'll find him in the market. What should happen first should happen later is what we need to understand Today, retail investor U Note has a job with me and I also invest a little money in the market. How do I analyze news so that I can identify which things are relevant to me? What is not relevant and what is relevant Should I take some action upon seeing him or not? There's no need to assess the news too much. News that comes today can change tomorrow. Tell me how many times Trump said he would not engage in a fight. How many times have I said that I will fight? She changes her statement sixty-three times every day. Changes or does not change If you respond to the news, it will become very difficult. There are feelings in the news. Feelings can be a very dangerous thing. Please allow me a moment—don't take it the wrong way. A person commits some crime. And the king says, "I will punish you." Your mistake has been caught; you will be punished. And you can choose your own punishment freely. Two punishments are there The first punishment is to eat a hundred shoes on top of one's head. Eat these one hundred onions. Which one will he choose out of the two? One hundred onions—how can he think onions are something to eat? And eating onions is so delicious that, in comparison, a hundred big ones seem small. The onions of that size are kept, but now he is not eating them along with food. Eating raw onions, one onion, two onions He falls at the king's feet and He says the king does not want me to eat onions. I'm ready to eat shoes. The king says, "Your wish, now his head is under your feet." One, two, three, four, five, six My head starts spinning as ten shoes come one after another. He feels that the blood has started to come. If my shoes are lying there, I'll die. He falls at the king's feet. And he says, "O king, I am ready to eat onions." Now let's find out what happens He eats even a hundred shoes, he eats even a hundred onions. This is what people do in investments Sometimes you run after Bond Sometimes they say, I'll just buy some silver. Sometimes I say, I'll buy some gold. Sometimes I say, "I'll just buy the equity, no problem." You would want to buy the one who is running away, wouldn't you? A good investor buys even what is not currently working. Because what isn't moving right now will move tomorrow. We don't want to eat onions, nor do we want to eat shoes—we just want this, from feelings This is what is called short term and long term. Investment is an exercise in imagination. is not a feeling exercise So when you hear the news, you feel We need to understand this. And the second thing we need to understand is this Why do markets experience ups and downs? The reason for this is that Market price is there, and earnings are there. When earnings increase then you would want to offer a higher price, and You pay a higher price for something as soon as you The higher the price they pay, the higher the stock price rises. And you think returns are coming in higher in the market, the market is going up. When the market goes up, others also I want to invest in the market. When other people invest in the market, the price goes even higher. and those who do not invest are also on them It comes from above and invests more in it. FOMO stands for fear of missing out, and in this way, the price It continues to grow, and the valuation will keep increasing further. So, how should we understand the market? Let me try to explain it to you. Tell me about Indian Nifty or Indian Sensex in the long term How much return do you think should be expected from your assessment? 12–14% There is some reason. There is a reason why I should receive what I am supposed to get returned He has a foundation. So normally what do we say GDP growth rate plus nominal GDP plus inflation plus dividend yield Add these three together. Then you will receive a refund Around 11-12% So, anyone you speak to whether he or she is making the right kind of assumptions that I will stay long-term And I want a 12% return inside an index fund Alright, so tell me this: you're in 2021, 2022, 2023? In 24, the return was less than 12, not more than 12 below. will happen because I saw rallies in between on the 22nd, 23rd, and 24th—if you're talking about four years Let's assume a 22 percent CAGR; how much return would that require? Twelve percent And at 24, everyone wanted to invest. Because 21, 22, 23, 24 in The return in the market was very high. I clearly remember it during COVID. Nifty had come around 7,500. It had reached 26,000 in 2024. So look at the kind of return you've achieved in 4 years The market had panicked. And everyone thinks the market will keep rising. We call this extrapolation. What is happening right now will continue to happen. It comes to your mind like that So, since the market needs to deliver a 12% return, For four years, he has given you a return of 20-22%. It won't give you a return for 2-3 years, even if you aim for 12. And if it doesn't return for 2-3 years, it will drop below 12. Then it will give you even higher returns; understanding the market is very easy, after all. So now you've had plenty of time, over two decades in the markets. So, how has that journey been for you personally? It was very bad at first, very bad after getting the job I got a job in Bombay; I was working at Unit Trust of India. He worked in the research department, and half of his salary was saved. I saved quite a bit of money, and I used to buy direct stocks with it. Do not buy funds of Unit Trust of India directly He used to buy stocks; I thought it was good to research stocks thoroughly. I'm buying, and believe me, most of the time The stocks I bought are not companies in the world. I suffered a great loss. These first years of my life didn't earn me a single penny. I thought I had studied economics. Yes, and in economics, I have read this That a person does what benefits him. We are human beings, we are rational people, We know what is good for us We do that work. His name was an economist. Daniel Kahneman is also a psychologist. I read their theory and on that day Since then, I have become a different investor. I finally understood what I had been investing in until today. He was doing what I like. Not that he was doing what I should have done I used to invest in rising markets and avoid falling markets. Withdrew money or stopped investing After 2001-02, I never looked back again. After that, I'll tell you: when the market drops, I'm happy. Because you are able to accumulate No, because I am convinced that the market keeps rising. He is the one who fears, who understands that the market does not It will rise, but the first share I bought in 1992 sank. Got it, after that I bought some shares, and within one or two days I did Mutual funds are also purchased—why buy them? Because they are very They were fleeing, it was Harshita Mehta's time, mine and the market's arrival It was Harshita Mehata's time; we all came together to the market. They came first, but became comets of dust. That was back then, and the market had reached 4400, and Shagun ji, you can believe it I won't do it. After that, in my life, I haven't had any valuation. P valuation was 44, which is now around 23. 44 P The valuation was so low that I suffered a loss and ended up almost at zero. The job was ongoing, the salary was being received, and the salary was being saved. After that, the market fell and dropped down to around 2700. But I wasn't depositing money there; my money was in bonds. I kept it right there, why, because I got scared from the market, that the market would crash After that, the market started rising again in 94, and when it began to rise once more This time I was a bit afraid, so I didn't buy stocks. This time, I said, I'll buy mutual funds. People say mutual funds are safe. So, a foreign mutual fund has come to India. whose name was Morgan Stanley And Morgan Stanley did not bring along normal Indian mutual funds either. He came with the IPO for three days. And he said, "My IPO will remain open for three days." Units will be allocated to whoever invests within three days. The lead banker was There were long lines, people went there at night I put in the order because the market was rising. And Morgan Stanley is a big name. The foreign mutual fund was desired by everyone to purchase. I identified the acquaintance. And I had 20,000 rupees The one I had for two years of imprisonment It was slightly less than that whole amount. I've put Sara's Borgenssteli in there The index was again 4200 And then it started falling again, and my NV. It went down from 10 rupees to 8 rupees, 7 rupees, and then 6 rupees. My heart broke again. What is happening? Third time I made a mistake; this time the market dropped. So I finally understood one thing—that time before when The market dropped, so I didn't invest. But this time I will invest, and after 94, when The market dropped within the 95-96 range, and that's when I started investing. And I kept investing continuously in equity; that was a good decision. But what happened afterwards was that by the time 97-98 arrived, the market I fall again, and I lose more money It's not possible; there's no additional damage either. Not even earning more money, and the father says Son, come here. It's about time you got married. You're already of marriageable age. Presentation I got married after taking a loan of 50,000 rupees. So what did I understand? Even a single equity can be dangerous. Equity is increasing. But we never know when the sand rises The market is uncertain. But the events of your life are certain. Presentation If I were to ask you Does the market go up and down? Can the market ever fall? Is the market uncertain? Then I understood one thing You will have to plan it That when you need money, you have money with you. It took me ten years to understand what you should keep in mind when putting in money. First you must decide when to spend this money, that very money will be yours. If I'm investing money in the equity market, it's 96. would have been different if I had kept in mind that I needed to get married in 1998, then this money Asset allocation does not mean putting this much money into gold. I keep so much money buried in the ground, not invested in bonds. Asset allocation means that the money you have is in the form of paper. I have written that I have this much money, and I need to invest this money. How much money do I need to spend in the next six months? You have 100 rupees; you need 6 rupees, in the next 6 months, 5 rupees, I have to spend within the next 6 months; even God came and said, the market is good. Don't listen to me; invest these 5 rupees in liquid mutual funds, and these 10 rupees I need to spend this amount within 1.5 to 2 years, please keep it in short-term bond funds. I need to keep this money for 6, 7, or 8 years; please invest it in multi-asset funds. This money would make the sky and earth merge into one for eight years, the world turn upside down. I won't spend this money before 8 years. Put in diversified equity funds. When you make such investments, you stay calm, and Those who stay calm survive. The one who survives is the one who makes money. and this is what we must understand Let's say my requirement is five years. So So now I need a fund From such a large category of funds as per your calculation What would be the right fund for me? How should that decision be made? It has many parameters. How have the funds performed? What kind of work has been done? We really need to understand this very much. Yes, please note that whenever you select funds, always check the funds' history. Choose and definitely watch the history—only then will you see the new fund Invest in when it comes with a new idea Now is the time, and the second fund market as well No, it's precisely because of that that you have the new fund Invest money If you're stuck in an old, worn-out idea When investing money, go with the fund that is performing well. You've already told me how I perform. Invest in it The fund that keeps receiving money continuously He is always ahead. A fund manager is also a human being. Even fund managers make mistakes. The pond's water gets dirty, but not the river's. Because the dirt gets washed away and flows out So what do you need to see is which fund received money during the downturn. Because the market goes up and down anyway. What should you look for in history when a recession hits? Who gets money continuously, who? People withdraw money from the fund. It indicates the credibility and trustworthiness of that fund. So, a fund manager is someone good Who keeps receiving money continuously You'll also need to track the fund's AUM a bit. The third thing you need to track is We call this up capture and down capture. When the market goes up, funds go up. When the market goes down, the fund goes down. You need to find out which fund goes up more when the market goes up. And when it goes down in the market, it goes down less. Up capture and down capture ratios — you need to look at these The fourth thing you need to see will come from the fund's history. What is its deviation, and what is its deviation from the average? So for him, you trainers ratio, If you look at the Sharpe ratio, it is secondary. The main issue is whether money comes in for him during a recession or not. He is the main one; let me tell you something fun. And the claim is to ride on the horse—this is what we must understand. So, it's very important to keep money inside the market. Investing is not about chasing returns; investing is about controlling risk. If you've covered the risk, the return will surely come, where else would it go? Warren Buffett also says it just like this, There are only two rules: the first rule is don't lose money. The second rule is don't forget rule number one. And risk management—I think one of the best ways to practice by diversifying in the market and investing your money in the right assets, Do you have any framework for that thing? How should a person approach asset allocation? So that they can minimize the risk First of all, we need to understand this point: you You must think calmly about when and what to do. When you are outside the event, you think clearly. When you are inside the event, you think incorrectly. Then you need to create your investing philosophy The second task for you is to perform asset allocation. The third task is to set a goal. Alright, it's very important. What is the return next month? economic conditions determine sets global conditions Nobody in the world knows it The third thing is investment. Write down your goal: How much money do I need to make? Don't write how much return is needed; it's above and below. I don't even know one percent of the people in my life. The investments they write down on paper before starting that I have to create such a large corpus What a strange thing it is You start your journey without deciding the destination. Investment means building a corpus. I need to create such a corpus Right and one final task you have to do, which is a very difficult task, mine You must also keep the assets that are not performing well. The asset that isn't performing well right now will perform well tomorrow. Investing doesn't mean you should go into the asset that is already going up. Investing means that you get returns from that asset. The one who is fleeing and enter the one who is falling rebalancing The one that rebalances—you won't be able to do it. Shrimadji, you know why you won't be able to do it I will tell you. There is a man who has made up his mind I will keep 50% equity. I will keep 20% in debt, 30% in gold, as decided. I'll keep 30% in debt, 20% in gold, he allocated this. After his allocation, equity dropped by 20% the following year. Its portfolio consists of only 50% equity. Only 10% will be allocated from its portfolio equity. The portfolio of the one who has 100% equity will double from this. I'm in trouble, man, what have I done? Next year's market dropped 20%, okay, and gold dropped 20%. If it increases, the 50% equity you have will drop by 10%. You have 20% gold, which increases by 20%, resulting in 50%. It's 100% gold; he's already pulled ahead of you. What do you think now? You will always be sad that people in the world keep moving ahead of me. And you will keep worrying because you will never get ahead of the match. If your heart truly desires it, if you manage to control your emotions and keep rebalancing constantly After 10 years, you will surpass them all and move ahead of the series, leaving them far behind. It's so simple That's not simple at all. Sir, this is such an interesting matter. especially about investor psychology When did you personally realize these things, you know, The return that I make is largely defined by what I mentally If I can control myself, then how are you learning it? You earn, the market doesn't give you, you earn. The market is the same for everyone; some make money, some lose money. People believe more in God than in ghosts. That God is telling you something very funny. Yes, India has six lakh villages. Go to any village. There will be an old man sitting there who will tell stories to children. I heard that I once saw a ghost on that tree. And what else did you say? So why does a ghost appear? How interesting it is that we're so obsessed with loss They are very, very sensitive. Why don't we see God? Since the Lord is the giver, why does the ghost appear? Because when we feel afraid, ghosts come near us. It will be, so it will be exactly as we imagine it We can see it clearly when we come to make a profit Shventiya Stock A, Stock B, Stock C, Stock A dropped 20% next year, Stock B fell by 20% next year, Stock C increased by 20% next year. What will happen to you, being in Los Angeles, where you've gained total benefits? You got it, it's in Los, it's in Los, so what would you say? Alright, and by the time 20 years pass, if this weakens by 20% each year In 20 years, your money will be gone. So, your money in A has become 0, your money in B has become 0, Alright, how much will your money grow to in C after 20 years? You know, 40 million, let me tell you something funny, Los However big it may be, it remains finite. Profit is infinite, no matter how small the beginning. You never know what might happen; I'm giving out a homework assignment, Whoever is listening to you, about when Rohunda Company came. How much was the share worth, and how much dividend has it given you up to today? Find out. Another company came with him. The one that manufactured two-wheelers And you had invested 10,000 rupees in it as well. That company is no longer listed. How much loss did you incur when it went missing? 10,000, the company took off How much money have you made since you arrived? Calculate Profits are infinite and losses are finite, this is what we have to understand is that he is a 25-year-old investor Their monthly salary who is watching this video It's 40,000 rupees. What do you think of theirs? How should the next 20-year investment journey be? It depends on how his career path turns out, doesn't it? According to that calculation, if there are jumps in the career path He has to jump into his savings from there. And accordingly, his work will become increasingly daunting. The lower your salary, the sooner you will achieve financial freedom. I'm saying the opposite. A small man who earns less becomes free sooner. Because his expenses are limited exactly The person who earns more and the spender The man who does more gets free later. A man earns one lakh rupees and saves ten thousand rupees. A man earns fifty thousand rupees and saves ten thousand rupees. The 50,000 one will become free because it has I've learned to live life to the fullest in 40,000. He needs 90,000 rupees to live in life. It will take him time to become free. So what's the trick here is how you spend your money Understand your expenses If there's a jump in your salary Save the major part of your salary. And spend less part Then you'll be able to hurry up. If a man is 25 years old Yes, I tell him a very interesting thing, that if he were to 25% He saves 35 percent of the money, if he saves it. It puts in 12 percent or more, just like Nifty. If he receives a return, his salary will be seven percent per year. The year is increasing; it might become free by the time it reaches 14 years. It means that by the time he reached 37 years old, and as he was approaching 38 years old, his... The salary will be seven percent of the higher salary. He will have more of his corpus funds. This is simple mathematics, which you can easily perform. I think it's full of very insightful observations. But if I tell you that this podcast The viewer takes away a lesson. What would you like? Take that with you. conviction Believe Believe in yourself; you will never make money without belief. Because every time the market drops, you'll be certain that you won't make money. And it's next to impossible to believe. So what is our biggest challenge here? It seems like money will be made in the growing market. And in a falling market, it seems it won't work. If you went ahead with this Then you don't survive. Cajun comes from the Conch. From Karaj, it comes to Pishenans, from Pishenans it comes Survival is now compounded by survival. Money grows through compounding — that's the mantra. There's nothing else. There's no way. Thank you so much for coming on the show and sharing all this. Thank you for the invite and thank you for the opportunity. Thank you so much And you too, I hope you enjoyed this conversation What was your biggest takeaway? Please definitely let me know in the comments I will meet you in the next episode of The Network Show So take care until then