Midterms: Will Trump backlash lead to Democratic landslide?

Well, let's discuss the latest more generally as these elections approach. I'm joined here on set by Oliver Ferry from our International Affairs desk. I mean, Oliver, these elections expected, aren't they, to spell pretty bad news for Donald Trump. But might there be some surprises, do you think? Well, we can't rule those out. They certainly don't look good at the moment for the US president with his popularity at an all-time low. It stands at between 32% and 36% depending on the polls. And this is reflected in the general outlook ahead of the election. 52% of voters, according to an NBC poll published yesterday. ...want the Democrats to control Congress. That's against 45 in favor of the Republicans controlling it. Now, this is a very general poll. It doesn't get into the granularity of the various individual races across the country, but it does show that the raft of issues such as the cost of living, high petrol prices, and also anger over Donald Trump's immigration crackdown are translating into a general feeling. Many Republican candidates are also realizing that perhaps for the first time, Donald Trump is a bit of a liability in a national election. So some of them have been discreetly dropping references to him from their campaign material. But they can't stop Donald Trump from turning up to stump for them if he so wishes. And he does that because he's in a very, very comfortable place at rallies. He's surrounded by adoring fans. He doesn't really have to field any unwelcome questions from journalists. And so even if it might not be particularly good for the people that he's endorsing, he feels good about it. But also, there is a possibility that things might actually go against the Democrats. It has happened in recent elections where the actual polls ahead of time are not always completely reliable. And that poll I mentioned earlier on, it shows that 52% of people want the Democrats to control Congress. That's not a ringing endorsement whatsoever. That really doesn't look like it's going to be a Democratic landslide. It's probably more... The fact that the Republicans are going to lose this election rather than the Democrats win it. Now, the House of Representatives is the more attainable of the two races. They only really have to flip four seats in order to take control of that. The Senate will be a little bit more difficult because the elections are state-wise, but even that is within reach as well. Well, all to follow. Well, we'll look at some of those individual races now. Oliver's going to stay with us. But let's bring you a report now from Texas, where a Democrat hopes to achieve a feat not seen in 38 years. This is winning a seat in the U.S. Senate, of course. James Talarico, a young elected official who openly and proudly professes his Christian faith, is facing off against Ken Paxton, a controversial figure in the Republican Party. And his campaign was even winning over some of Donald Trump's voters for France 24. Pierre-Éric Laurent and Wassim Korné report. They've come to listen to him religiously. James Talarico is an outspoken Christian who borrows the language of evangelical pastors. This election reminds me of that story in the Bible. With more than 2 million TikTok followers, he's also won over young voters who call themselves Talaricos, his biggest fans. He's done a really great job of talking to young people. I'm 18 and I'm like, I see him all over my Instagram and stuff. And just him like saying like... On stage, a former Republican lawmaker has come out to support him. Texas hasn't had a Democratic senator in over 30 years, but this time his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, has been weakened by a series of scandals. Republicans, just as well as Democrats, know that there is no place in Texas for guys like Ken Paxton. That's why these two parties that don't seem to agree on anything these days came together to impeach the most corrupt politician in our state. I was there. It's a message that's making waves. In the crowd, some who chose Trump are ready to vote blue. When your own party impeaches you, that's a red flag. I've been a Republican all my life, okay? I believe in states' rights. I believe the generic Republican... platform. The way that this thing kind of drifted or fell to the right, I can't go. We meet Gene again at home. This is basically a summary of my service. This veteran and devout Christian says Trump broke his word by deploying troops to the Persian Gulf for months. This time he became the center of everything that he's done, and that's not good for America. It's not It's not the America I grew up in. It's not the America I served for. Even so, voting Democrat was a difficult decision. In my mind, the Democrats that have always been so progressive, so liberal, so socialist, I can't do that. But Mr. Talarico, yes, he still has his Democratic background and beliefs and everything, but he's moved toward the center so that I think he can appeal to both sides of the fence. Jean says he will still vote for some Republicans in local races. Yeah, Pierre-Éric Laurent and Wassim Korné reporting there. So that's one race. There are others we should be looking at too, aren't there? Yeah, the Texas race is actually interesting, as we've seen there with James Talarico could become the first Democratic senator from the state in 33 years and the first to be elected in 38 years if he defeats the Trump-endorsed Ken Paxton. And he is slightly ahead. Now, what's interesting about Ken Paxton is he's not very popular among Republicans, as we've seen there. He was actually impeached. By the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives, as the Attorney General, he's still the State Attorney General. Now, he was actually acquitted by the Senate, as in the U.S. You generally have to be convicted by both houses in order to be done away with. So he's still there, but he's also not particularly popular. And he managed to benefit from Trump's support to unseat the incumbent Texas Republican Senator James Cornyn. So James Tallarico is definitely benefiting from discontent within the Republican Party themselves. We can also go to Michigan, which we heard about earlier on with Haley Stevens, the defeated Democratic primary candidate, going out to bat for the Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, against Abdul Al-Sayed. Now, Al-Sayed, this will probably not move the dial this late in the day. Al-Sayed has been. Endorsed by both progressive Democrats and also by heavyweight mainstream figures such as Barack Obama and Kamala Harris, he would become the first ever Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate if he were to be elected. But he It's also, he's also been the target of a lot of racist attacks by Donald Trump, who has called him a jihadist. um He said yesterday that Al-Sayed would have to pass through you the metal detector in order to get through Congress. Ah In Maine, longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins is in trouble. She's one of the more moderate GOP members of the Congress. much. She is seeking a sixth term. But she's trailing her Democratic rival, Troy Jackson, who was a late replacement for Graham Plotner, a progressive darling who withdrew from the race after rape allegations against him surfaced in July. Now, the fact that Collins, who has held this seat since 1997, is in trouble against a candidate who is running for the first time in a national election is a measure of how much trouble the Republicans are in overall. In Alaska, things are also very tight in a very interesting race. It's a toss-up between the Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Dan Sullivan. The Trump administration has tried to block the results of the election if Sullivan loses because the Democrats reportedly enticed a second Dan Sullivan onto the ballot, which presumably would confuse some of the less attentive voters. Now, this effort was rejected by a judge because what the Democrats did, even though it's a little bit underhanded, but it's perfectly legal and the Republicans do it in other state races as well. So it's definitely looking interesting, those four races. As I said, the Democrats do need to flip four seats in order to gain control of the House. And even if they do, they're not going to be able to be complete spoilers with Donald Trump because you really need 60 votes in the Senate in order to shut down the government completely.