Betting $100 Every Day for a Year: Day 301 (NFL Week 8 Picks)

Hello friends, welcome to day 301 of betting $100 every day for a year. As you can tell, I'm clean shaven for the first time in a long time. Babyface McMillan is back. The reason why I'm clean shaven is I'm doing Movember this year. I've done it in years past where I start the month clean shaven and then I grow my mustache throughout November. That's why it's called Movember. And I'm doing it to raise money for men's health. Things like men's suicide awareness, prostate cancer, testicular cancer, all those things. Things, so. So throughout the month, I will be asking you to donate to my Movember page. I'll link it in the post below this, uh, but yeah, so I am clean shaven today, uh and slowly throughout the month each day throughout this challenge You'll slowly see my mustache coming in. It's gonna be a beautiful mustache Can't wait to get at least a little bit of facial hair, uh back on this face Uh, it's gonna take a little bit for me to get used to not having a beard, but All right. Day 301. Yesterday was a losing day two and three for a loss of $24.43. I don't know how Northwestern didn't end up covering. They're winning almost the whole game. And then I looked at the end and they lost and didn't cover. So that brings us back down to the red. We enjoyed one day in the green. Season-to-date record of 527 wins, 560 losses, 15 pushes for a loss of $6.40. So the good news is if we have a winning day today, if we go 3-2, we'll get back into the green. So it's NFL Sunday. Of course, I'm going to do the same thing as I have been doing on both Saturdays and Sundays throughout the football season. Five bets, $20 on each. Let's get into them. We're going to start with $20 on the Ravens plus three and a half minus 115 against the Bills. Lamar Jackson is in the lineup for this game and I've talked about this before. I just don't trust the Bills defense. Everyone is pointing at the Vikings as like being like the fraudulent team in the NFL because they have like the number one defense and then like the 30th ranked offense. The Bills are the opposite of that and no one's really talking about it. Number one offense, but then like 30th ranked defense. Their defense is really, really bad. 30th in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. That's going to come back to haunt them, especially when they're taking on an MVP caliber quarterback in Lamar Jackson. So maybe they'll win, but I'm certainly going to take the points if we're getting three and a half with the Ravens. Then I got $20 on Trevor Lawrence to not throw an interception at minus 114. One of his biggest strengths this season has been his discipline and accuracy in throwing the ball. He actually has the lowest bad throw rate amongst NFL quarterbacks this season, just 10.8%. Now he and the Jaguars are taking on, obviously, a depleted Colts team in a game that I'm hoping the Jaguars don't even need to throw the ball much in. They're a double-digit favorite. If they get off to an early lead, maybe they just lean on the run game, drain the clock in the second half. Trevor Lawrence certainly won't be in a position where he'll need to force throws into tight coverage. So I'll bet on him to not throw an interception. We got a kicker prop next. $20 on Jake Bates. Over 7.5 kicking points at minus 117. The Lions are taking on... The Vikings today, and I do expect the Lions to move the ball, but they may end up having to settle for field goals more often than not. The Vikings, not only the top defense so far in the NFL this season, but also top red zone defense. They keep teams out of the end zone on 23.08% of red zone trips against them this season, which is insane. Not many teams have even gotten to the red zone, but when they have, they've had to settle for... Field goals, so yeah, I think Jake Bates is going to have a busy day. So I'll go over 7.5 kicking points for the Lions kicker. $20 on the Browns, plus 3.5, minus 109 against the Steelers. This is a rematch of a game earlier this season, a game which the Browns had only won 27-24, but they also outgained the Steelers in that game, 6 yards per play to 5.6 yards per play. These two teams are very similar to me. Below-average offenses with above-average defenses. Neither really moves the ball that great. Pittsburgh does run the ball better than the Browns, but does that make them worthy of being a favorite of over 3.5 points? I don't think so. I'll take the Browns in that one with the points in a game that I expected to just be an ugly AFC North defensive battle. And then we'll wrap things up with Patriots minus 7.5, even money against the Dolphins. This was down to 6.5, even as recently as last night. Back up to 7.5. Don't love it as much, to be honest. But I will take it at 7.5, getting even money in that bet. We've seen this story with the Patriots before. They struggle against really good defenses, but then when they face bad teams and bad defenses, Drake Maye holds out and they just run up the score. And yeah, Dolphins got a win last week. Don't think that that means that they're a good team. They're outmatched in this game, offensively, defensively, special teams. I think the Patriots run away with this one. I'll lay the points with New England. Those are my five best bets for today's NFL action. Good luck to all of your bets. Gambler or blessed, we will see you back here tomorrow.