Peter Grandich: Gold's Bull Market Isn't Over — Why He's Betting on Mining in 2027

There are people continuously saying now that gold is going to underperform because interest rates go higher and the cost to hold it, et cetera, et cetera. That flies in the face of history. The two biggest rises for gold were during the two biggest periods where interest rates rose. The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady, gold is under renewed pressure, and Americans head to the polls next week. Veteran market commentator Peter Gadic has warned of a potentially severe stock market correction, yet despite the weakness in precious metals, he says he's putting his investment capital back into mining. So is this a dangerous time to invest or a rare opportunity to position for the next market cycle? Peter Grandage joins me now on Top of Mind. Peter, it's a pleasure. Thanks for talking to us. Happy to be with you. Thank you very much. Peter, the Federal Reserve has held rates steady, but two policymakers wanted a hike. What did you take away from that decision and has changed your outlook for gold? Well, nothing changed for my outlook on gold. I will say that this gentleman now heading up the Fed is a whole lot tighter with... Any information than the previous two. The other two like to talk too much, and I believe he likes to talk too little. But I do think that one of the things that will come over in the coming days, and of course, our upcoming election that you mentioned is going to play a critical role as well. But I do think there'll be some concerns come December that the Fed might be getting behind the curve yet again. To my opinion, they would have been best served, but I understand why they didn't to have followed up with a small tightening again to really show that they're adamant. But politically, it would have caused a lot more aggravation for them. If you think Trump can kick up before, I think he would have kicked up like we've never seen him before with interest rates rising there. And of course, Not that I don't think they get some indication of where numbers are before we do, but we were followed up this morning with a fairly strong GDP number. And it clearly suggests that it'd be hard-pressed to think in just a matter of six weeks that things will go soft to the point where they won't be rising again. So I think it's a pretty certainty for another rise in December. And then, of course, everybody will get into what I call the... Don't say no to no-bar humbug period. Between our Thanksgiving and New Year, Wall Street definitely doesn't like to speak about anything negative, especially as they're about to count the money from their bonuses. So we go into kind of a happy atmosphere. But I do think come early January, we'll find ourselves mostly speaking about the Fed is not ahead of the curve, but many of us will view that they're behind the curve. Mining investors want the real picture. Who's buying? What's unlocking? When? CEO.ca plus gives you the data behind the story, often before the market fully catches on. Get started for free with CEO.ca plus. Just days ago, you suggested gold might need to fall below $4,000 before finding a bottom, right? With prices under further pressure, Peter, are we now seeing the correction you anticipated? Or could things get considerably worse? What's your take? So, Devin, for several years, I was out of gold. So I'm not always somebody that's speaking about gold going to the moon. But this past January, I did exit because of the parabolic move. Not that the fundamentals changed for what kept me in it up until then. But we just went too high, too far, too fast. And in less than a year, about 11 months, I've not seen in 42 years. This big swing in the sentiment in gold. When we first went through 4,000, Devin, I heard from people I haven't heard from in 20 years. Oh, my God, I waited for this time. All these years, gold's going to the moon. I can make a lot of money. And many of those same people in the last few weeks, Peter, I think it's the end. I think it's going back to 2,000. And sentiment switch is almost 180 within the last year. And even though the... The markets are now so much more driven by computers than they were 20 or 30 years ago. Sentiment is still an important indicator. So my feeling was the last washout we would need to get those last, I hate to call them whiners, but they were in some sense, out of the market and allow the fundamentals that still present themselves for a very bullish case for gold going forward. Look, you've acknowledged a possible downside scenario, what, 3,400 to 3,500 gold. What would convince you that the bottom is finally in rather than just another temporary recovery? Well, you know, this is an area now where if you're not computer literate, which I'm not, you're viewed as a dinosaur. And I'm still comfortable with a pen and pad over a computer in my hand. But sentiment still overrides people. Humans are still involved in this. So the sentiment is very, very important to me. But when the key fundamental factor, whatever it was to keep you bullish or bearish, seems to be improving, you got to override that current view that people have. And one of the reasons, Devin, is people become much too short-term oriented. Let me give you this number. This is very important because it works in all the markets. In 1980, just before I entered this business, the average stock in the U.S. was held 8.6 years. At the end of 2025, it was down to six months. So we've become much more short-term oriented. To me, the bullish argument a year ago, when gold was 4,000, many people thought going to the moon, has only improved. And what is it? Central bank buying. The biggest people with the most amount of money are focusing still on accumulating gold. In fact, as it got cheaper, they became more intense. Until they change, until there's a sign that they no longer have an appetite, I don't see any reason to give up a long-term appetite. Bye. Listen, let's talk election. You've described next week's U.S. midterm as perhaps the most consequential of your 42-year career. What specific election outcome? would have the biggest impact to financial markets, and tell us why, Devin. Well, this seems to be, depending on what channel you listen to, left or right, there's a view that at least the Democrats will obtain control of the House. Now, if they don't, that's actually bullish for the stock market. I think people have ridden this wave of Trump and what he's doing for business and so forth and so on, and that would be the surprise come Wednesday morning. If they take control of at least the House, I think if you think they were angry before and felt all the things that he was doing wrong was wrong, I think it'd be multiplied by a factor of 10. But I also think because of what he's done on the geopolitical circuit. So back in early 2025, when he announced taking this big stick into a trade war, instead of what I said, which should be an olive branch, I felt two things were going to happen. One, the tariffs would be reversed, which they were. But the bigger picture was he was alienated our allies. And even if he was justifiable that for years we were taking advantage and all, the way he did it by hitting them over the head versus saying, hey, guys and gals, we got to work something out for the better, was going to hurt because of this and this factor alone. We are a country that continues to run multi-trillion dollar deficits. Now, Devin, I started in 1984 on Wall Street. We didn't know what a trillion was. I couldn't describe to you what a trillion was. Now we have 40-something trillion of this debt. As we continue to run these deficits, there's no sign that it's ending. We're going to be more dependent than ever on outsiders to support that deficit by purchasing our securities. It's my belief, no matter what happens with inflation and the economy, what have you, Interest rates are going to work higher, slowly but higher, because people are going to demand a higher rate to take a bigger risk of whether or not they're going to get their interest paid back. The principal's never being paid back, but the interest paid back and all. So. If for some reason that the Democrats not only take the House, but the Senate, I don't personally see Trump staying for his remaining period of time. I believe it's going to be such a war and so much animosity that he'll take the Biden route or whoever arranged for Biden to take that route and give a bunch of pardons, including himself, and step aside. So this election has a lot of ramifications to me on where markets, equity or commodities are going to go than any other factor right now Look, it's interesting you say that, Peter. I read your recent article. You compared today's investment environment with 2021 when you urged investors to favor gold over treasuries, right? What is the equivalent opportunity you believe investors should be positioning for today? David, I think The first thing is people have to learn something that our government can't, and that is they have to spend less than they make. Even in today's GDP number, wages were lower than spending. And this is just a continuation for decades of Peter, robbing Peter to pay Paul, and Peter's basically running out of things to give. And quite frankly, the thing that pushed the market up, this AI craze, had run on that same principle, so much borrowing, hoping that the borrowing will enhance value and all that other type of stuff at all. So I think the first thing we need to do as individuals, long before our government ever gets to it, we have to spend less than we make. I also think we need to live not only within our means, but less than our means. Because as these governments, and we're not alone, this is happening in many areas of the world, they only have two choices, governments, to keep running. Raise taxes and lower spending, less services. Well, two-thirds of Americans are working paycheck to paycheck, Devin. There's not much more you can bleed out of them. In fact, the more you would bleed out of them, the more they're going to turn to the government to want help. The extremely wealthy, the one-tenth of one percent that own more assets than our entire middle class, they live in a different world. They're not impacted by anything much that you and I could talk about for hours. So what remains is people that are going to be looked at and called upon to pull more of their weight in taking care of those increased expenses and situations. So I think people have to live within their means and less than means. But perhaps the single biggest description that I have for our planning group is. Preservation of capital now is more important than appreciation of capital. I really think if you and I are blessed to talk a couple of years from now again, it's not going to be how much people made, but how much they didn't lose, which is going to separate the winners from the losers. You know, it's interesting you say that because you recently said in an interview that you were committing virtually all your investment capital back into mining. Have you completed that move, Peter? And why by now, when gold's technical picture remains fragile? So there was a wonderful newsletter writer, one of the most colorful of all times he's passed, but he was a very known and well-respected newsletter, Jim Dines, and he used to say, timing's everything. Think of the poor guy that invented Preparation G, and of course, we all know the product is Preparation H. So the importance of that is, is that I've never been a timer. If there's been one thing said about me over decades is that, Peter, you tend to be too early. Well, one of the other things I learned from another mentor was it's always better to be too early than too late. So I don't know if I'm catching the bottom, Devin, by coming back into these, but I do know this. The fundamentals for metals, in particularly mining, and in particularly in one country, Canada, have never been better in my 42 years. What Canada has finally decided to do and how it's going to approach not just mining for metals, but in energy and others, if they follow through, because remember, we're dealing with politicians. So until you see it actually happen, you can't put both eyes closed to go to sleep. But I do think the opportunity, particularly in Canada, especially, Devin, When 30 years ago, if you and I were at a gold conference, we could have spun a globe, not even look at it, land on some country, say, yeah, we can go there. Not anymore. The world has shrunk dramatically. And in the places that were considered just household names, safety, principle, whatever, places like Chile and others, where it was. No brainer to go. Now they themselves are struggling with a lot of issues, the developed world. So in the meantime, we had this Wall Street that had been telling us for a few years, oh, there's AI and data centers and all this stuff that's going to happen in the future. Okay, I'll take that at face value. But you guys aren't also saying to us, what about the metals that we need in order to develop and bring these things to bear? And we've had a neglect, a real neglect for decades. of mining in people's mind. When you look at the percentage of ownership of the mining sector versus all other sectors, you almost need a microscope to see it. So I'm not worried that I'm going into an industry that's overboard or over leveraged or any. In fact, It's shocking for a person that used to manage a lot of money for metals and mining stocks that we have almost record still free cash flows for these major mining companies. These are folks that used to spend more than they make like Americans did. Now they're in incredible shape. They have a wonderful currency, their equity, their house is in order. And... They're seeing opportunities to acquire projects that are still selling at valuations when gold was half its price. So I just see that barring something totally unreal, the whole world implodes, and then I'm going to go down with it. I just see mining as a really opportunist time for 2027. Yeah. Look, let's talk about that. You're pointing out that technology companies are spending enormous sums on AI, while mining companies are generating substantial free cash flow. Peter, what would actually trigger a meaningful rotation of institutional money into mining stocks? So for 41 of the 42 years, Devin, I'll give it to you straight, Wall Street created gold like kryptonite. The average financial advisor, don't go near it, don't touch it, it'll kill you, whatever the case may be. At the same time, most of those folks, you can throw them off the Empire State Building and all the way down, they will all have said the same thing. Hey, so far, so good. There's been this don't worry, be happy mood that existed in that. So then never had been favorable at all to gold, because gold flies in the face of financial assets. We can get down to the bottom and be real honest with each other. The reasons for gold to go up are not usually the same reasons for stocks in general to go up. However, and that's a word I don't like using, but it's used a lot on Wall Street. Changes is afoot. It's not yet down to the retail investor, but major financial institutions and institutional investors are now willing to own gold in the same way that they own bonds. So the old 60-40 portfolio cookie cutter approach on Wall Street in the upper echelon is changing to 60-20-20. And I believe that's why they're advantageous and not speaking yet. about wanting to own gold because they're trying to accumulate as much as they can for themselves right now. So I just don't, I can't come up with a scenario where gold doesn't outshine general equities. So that is the reason why I'm willing to commit. Not because I think gold's going to 10,000 and it's always something I predicted and that kind of stuff. It's because the fundamentals have never been better for metals mining and exploration, at least in my view. Mining investors want the real picture. Who's buying? What's unlocking? When? CEO.ca plus gives you the data behind the story. That's the kind of intel you can trade on. Get started for free with CEO.ca plus. You've warned that a reversal in passive investment flows could produce a historic severe market decline. What specific warning signs, Peter, would you tell or would you look at and that would convince you that the process has begun? So Devin, I realized a long time ago, I was never going to be remotely close to among the smartest people in the industry. So I try to follow after all these years, still people that have demonstrated. There's a gentleman that's very, very well expert in the matters of passive investing. His name is Michael Green. And for a lot of years, he argued that that was going to continue to drive markets higher. But in recent times, he's changed his tune. And the way I put Put it simplistically to at least anybody that's listening to me is. When I started in the business in 1984, almost 90% of the trading on the only two exchanges that we had at the time in the NASDAQ was individual investors. 10% was institutional and there was no computers. Now they estimate over 60% of the money in the stock market is through some sort of passive investing. So we no longer have a party deciding whether or not this is good or bad. It's mandatory. I don't want to call it a Ponzi because it is legit. But it is basically taking out decision-making. Money flows. It automatically needs to go into something. That sector kinds that do better than the others, that causes more money to flow. And it kind of became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Problem now is we're seeing it start to deteriorate. The flows are starting to dry up. Some are even reversing. So the typical argument is, well, if it worked on the way up, it's going to have the opposite effect on the way down. And now when that occurs, the typical normal bear market that eventually has to happen, no matter who you are or where you're at, is going to be accelerated because we have that and the other factor. Two-thirds of financial advisors in the United States have only been practicing since the last financial crisis in 2008. Now, this is no disrespect to them. They're not doing anything illegal or unethical, but they learned how to drive on a one-way street. They just know you get in the car, you put your foot to the pedal to the metal, and you go. And on the odd time there was something troubled in the road, this Fed came along with this tow truck. Threw a bunch of money out there, made the road okay, and you get back in your car and you go. So you can't blame them that they think that's going to continue happening. The problem is, is that the Fed and this country is no longer in the position that they can just easily throw money at problems and expect it to go away. So the combination of whatever causes the market to start to turn down and all this money that's been in passive investing can have a more effect in a bear market. And then when that happens, we don't have the experience of old geezers like me with gray hair or no hair to know, hey, this is what you need to do and all. These are people that are going to be as much in shock as the clients are, and I'm afraid it's going to accelerate more to the downside than it would have needed to. Right. Against that backdrop, I mean, you're forecasting U.S. 10-year treasury yields of 5.5% to 6% in 2027. How does gold perform in that environment? I mean, particularly if investors can earn substantially higher returns So this is probably where I disagree with some of the everyday commentators out there. There are people continuously saying now that gold is going to underperform because interest rates go higher and the cost to hold it, et cetera, et cetera. That flies in the face of history. The two biggest rises for gold were during the two biggest periods where interest rates rose, through the 70s, and then the first half of this decade. And so, I just believe that we've been going through a normal correction. There's been some liquidation, and for the reasons people bought gold, to have that liquidity to meet it there. But the view from half empty to half full will flow, especially when the competition to metals is dissipating. Mining, and especially, let me just touch on exploration, Devin, because I know part of what people listen to you is that. Two negatives against the expiration or the junior resource market have been just preventing them from having their day in the sun. The first is kind of dissipated, and that's cryptocurrencies. A lot of money that 20 years ago, if there wasn't crypto, would have flown into the junior market, went into the crypto market, whether it was the NFTs, which have blown up, the memcoins, which is the worst investment in mankind. I mean, the thing about a memcoin, if you think about it, it's the perfect example of the greater fool theory. It has no value. I'd rather have a pile of poop because I can at least put that in my backyard and help with fertilizer. That blew up. And now clearly people realize that all this talk every five minutes of crypto is gone. That market has petered out. That was important. But the last thing that is also prevented was AI and all things related to AI. With those two out of the picture in 2027 and the arguments that I believe are correct about the fundamentals, the mining and all, it's going to be more of an appetite for people to want to own these things. So maybe not this week and maybe not until into 2027, but in a reasonable time, at least for an old geezer like me, where months and years are still. Where I look for investing, not hours and days, I just think this is all setting up for one of the best opportunities in metals and mining in my career. Yeah. Peter, look, as I wrap up, I want to stay on that point as we finalize this. I mean, junior miners certainly is something worthy talking about, right? So, you know, 2027 going forward, is that how you see it for junior miners? Yeah. You know, I have to be candid because I saw him on your show and it was a great interview. So please allow me to say it. Michael Gentile is the smartest, sharpest, most honest person I've met in any type of business, let alone in a business where failure is the norm, which is the junior resource market. And some of the more shady characters that I met over my 40 years would be around. But he makes a great argument about the absolute need now for juniors, for the majors to go out and be successful and to use all this. great situations they're in to maximize it. And of course, he has also landed on this Canadian argument that he and I and some others are making it all. So it's a risky business. It's not for everybody. Failure is the norm. But I do think one of the things that has Clearly separated is that industry has upgraded itself from what it used to be like 20, 30, or 40 years ago. So I think we're just going to see a shift as we get into 2027, and people are going to realize that mining is a necessity if we want to have the lifestyle and things that we've grown accustomed to, and then eventually you need to get the explorers who basically tend to be the people who find the big deposits. Let me just close with this, Devin, and Robert Friedland is so right on this when he keeps hopping on it. The estimate is we need six tier one copper mines between now and 2050 just to meet the need of the growth of the world outside of AI. We've only had six come on board this decade. So that's just an indication of how much opportunity remains in the mining and exploration business, in my view. Peter Grantich, we certainly do appreciate the insight. It's been very, very compelling speaking to you. Thanks indeed for joining us. Thank you for having me. God bless you. And that was Peter Grantich there joining us on Top of Mind. Remember, there are more interviews on the Mining.com YouTube site as well as the main Mining.com site. Feel free to leave a comment and please do subscribe for more thrilling interviews on Mining.com. Not all rooms are equal. Some have rocket emojis, rumors, and someone's brother-in-law who knows a guy. Rumors aren't facts. Guessing isn't strategy. Mining investors want the real picture. Who's buying? What's unlocking? When? 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