Mapping out where Albertans voted to remain (or not) in Canada

This map shows Alberta's referendum results on separation. While most want to stay in Canada, voters across the province aren't on the same page. I mean, we can't even agree on what motivated voters to pick option two. Some labeled it as a vote for separation, others to send Ottawa a message or start a conversation. Officially, though, question 10 asked voters to pick option one, Alberta remains a province of Canada, or option two, pursue a binding referendum on separation. Back to the map. It shows where Remain in Canada won in a landslide, where it didn't, and even areas where voters were only sort of on board with staying. You might think it's simply urban versus rural, but it's more complex. The stereotype of Alberta being conservative is partially true but misses a lot of the nuance. There have always been different strains of conservatism within Alberta and what we're seeing is that old division. So while urban races overwhelmingly picked stay, rural ridings did too, with a couple exceptions. Stick around for that. Rural races were more divided on the question than the urban ones, with results closer to that 50-50 mark. Those are the communities that are really sort of feeling the social impact of this whole process playing out, where you have like neighbor being pitted against neighbor. Option two, favoring Alberta following the path to a second binding referendum on separation, one in two ridings but just barely. Take a look. Rimby-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre at nearly 51% and Central Peace-Notley at about 50. In Rimby-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre the lead is 1.9 percentage points or 467 votes. That data scientist we talked to saw this coming on election night. The strongest estimate we have Rimby Rocky Mountain House-Sundre like our model puts it at 53% support, there's a very real chance that it could be majority separatist. He says it wasn't just a data prediction, though. Just a strong history of populist right parties in this part of the province. There's this string of ridings from like west central Alberta that sort of goes across the province and then comes down almost towards southeast Alberta that has had a very long history of populist right parties. Voters favored the right-wing Social Credit Party, a now-defunct group. If Social Credit loses, the party could be finished in Alberta. Eventually, they switched to the PCs. Mr. Lougheed is not above giveaways either, in this case, roses. They elected a separatist MLA in the 80s. Separatist Gordon Kessler. And later found the Wild Rose. Santos says these parts of the province are far from major cities like Calgary or Edmonton. The industry there is primarily farming, ranching, forestry, and oil and gas extraction. Flipping to the stay side, voters in Drumheller-Stettler are dancing on the line, with 51.6% opting for Remain, leading by 3.2 percentage points or just 648 votes. One riding on solid ground with the biggest Remain win, Edmonton-Strathcona. Can you guess who represents this riding provincially? 90.7% of voters said stay. Only 9.3% voted the other way. The gap between option one and option two is much bigger. Picture a canyon between the two choices. Horseshoe Canyon, not that other one. Calgary also has some decidedly Federalist ridings. Calgary-Bull Shaw-McCall and Calgary-Mountain View. Both have a history of electing progressive representation. And of course, on this trip across the province, we can't skip over Banff-Kananaskis. That's solid red riding in a sea of reddish ridings. It's actually a bit of a bellwether. Banff and Canmore voters can skew more progressive. The riding has First Nation and Indigenous voters. And on the flip side, Santos says, there's also Springbank, Priddis, Millerville, more conservative leaning pockets. The outcome, 79.8% remain. A result that looks more like an urban riding than a rural one. And speaking of Indigenous voters, if you dive even deeper into the data, support for Remain was huge across the province. In this riding, Lesser Slave Lake, the result was 69.6% for option one. And if you go deeper into the numbers, down to the polling station, you'll see here, only one person voted for option two, or even in this case, zero. But remember, these are unofficial numbers. The official count will drop at the end of October.