Europe Today: Israel faces deadlock after vote, Nordic leaders hold rare Putin call

Good morning, it's Wednesday, October 28th. You're watching Euronews and this is Europe Today. Our top stories. Israel's election ended in an apparent deadlock yesterday, exit polls by major television networks showed, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival Gadi Eisenkot on track for a majority in the Knesset. The stalemate could work in Netanyahu's favour, allowing the long-serving Prime Minister to remain in power in a caretaker capacity while parties try to forge a governing coalition. Final results could take days. Finnish President Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Støre held a surprise phone call with Russian President Putin, signalling Europe's increasing willingness to engage directly with Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. The two leaders urged Putin to commit to meaningful negotiations to reach a stable, peaceful settlement. The call was made at the initiative of the two Nordic leaders. Afterwards, they exchanged with Ukrainian President Zelensky. And French football superstar Kylian Mbappé has lost several of his biggest sponsorship deals in China after a video circulated online in which he appears to joke about Mao Zedong, the founder of the People's Republic. His comments led to a backlash that the Real Madrid forward has now apologized for. In China, jokes about Mao, who died in 1976, are seen as disrespectful and touch on a sensitive political and national issue. Welcome to the program. I'm Stefan Krober. But first to the election in Israel, where no alliance of parties has secured the necessary majority. That is not unusual, as no single party has ever won 61 seats outright in the 120-member parliament, making coalitions the norm. In their first reactions, Netanyahu and Eisenkot attacked each other for playing with Israel's security. Take a listen. It is forbidden, simply forbidden, to endanger Israel by forming a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties. Netanyahu, do not dare to use Israel's security for your political needs. To all the citizens of Israel, I say already now, I can assure you, the era of evasion has ended. Joining me now is Elon Levy, a former spokesman of the Israeli government. Good morning, Elon. Good morning. So, simple question. What just happened and what happens next? That is not a simple question, it's an excellent question. Israelis are waking up this morning scratching their heads and asking what happened. I mean, let's bring you an update now from the partial votes that have been counted. With about 52% of the votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc has 55 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The change bloc has 49 seats, and the Arab parties have surged to a historic 16 seats. It means now there are really three options, a unity government, a minority government, or fresh elections. And all of those are going to require someone to surrender on some very serious coalition promises. The prospect of a minority government headed by Eisenkot with the tacit support of the Arab parties is looking a lot less likely now that it seems they have dramatically underperformed. There is still a risk that Netanyahu's bloc could pull off that magic number of 61 seats. The votes are still being counted. But until we have a clearer picture, it would be pointless to speculate. Yeah, obviously a very complex situation. Is this the beginning of the end of the Netanyahu era, or are we underestimating his extraordinary ability to cling to power? Oh, no, this is an extraordinary comeback for Netanyahu, despite the October 7th massacre that happened on his watch, despite three years of war since then, despite huge public unrest and dissatisfaction over his alliance with the ultra-Orthodox parties and their demand for an exemption from military service, Netanyahu is the leader of the largest party by a wide margin. His bloc has a commanding lead over the change bloc, If we put the Arab parties to one side and we can talk about why those are considered somewhat problematic. Netanyahu has lost his majority. It seems it's unlikely that he will hold on to a majority. But unless someone else manages to form a government, he remains the caretaker prime minister. Either we go back to elections or someone folds and sues for peace and joins his coalition. Right. Elon, I have to ask you this. You mentioned the Arab-led parties. They could hold the balance of power. But how conceivable is it really that they will decide who becomes Israel's next prime minister? I mean, despite the refusal of several opposition leaders to govern with them. The possibility of a minority government headed by Eisenkot, at least temporarily, with the support of some of the Arab parties, was floated as an option. leaders within the change block are warning that would be extremely unpopular and would backlash and end up giving Netanyahu an even bigger majority in the next election as much as anyone wants to see the integration of Arabs into Israeli life I think most European listeners would not want to have an Islamist party or an Arab communist party sitting in their own government Mansour Abbas made big steps to come towards the change block and yet still refuses to call Hamas a terrorist organization. The Joint List, one of its newly elected candidates, dedicated their victory to the people of Gaza and occupied Jerusalem. So they are still kryptonite for most of the mainstream parties. It's possible that Eisenkot could rely on them to try to form a minority government. It would be very unpopular and definitely unstable. All right, Elon Levy, former Israeli government spokesman. Thank you so much for your analysis analysis this morning. Now, America is heading for a political showdown and the stakes could hardly be higher. In just one week, voters will decide who controls Congress in what is widely seen as a referendum on Donald Trump's presidency. With Republicans fighting to hold on to power and Democrats hoping for a comeback, the outcome could reshape Washington and Trump's last two years in the White House. For more on this, I'm now joined by Keith Branham, senior advisor on U.S. politics at consulting firm Greenlane with more than a decade of experience as a Democratic strategist and campaign manager. Good morning and thanks for coming on. Good morning. So right now, Democrats have a huge polling advantage on the generic ballot. Likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans by 11 points in their congressional districts. But when it comes to Senate races, the Democrats lead narrows to just five points. Is there still some nail biting or do Democrats have it in the bag? There's definitely some nail biting, but this is far more nail biting than Republicans would have wanted. When we came in to 2026, it was understood that the House, because of history, was probably in play for Democrats. Democrats probably had a really good chance of winning it. And the Senate was out of reach. The map was just not in their favor. That is how much the politics has changed between January and now. And there's a few reasons for that. One, Democrats have recruited really fantastic candidates across some really difficult states that Republicans are used to winning. And Donald Trump in 2024 won by high single digits, sometimes double digits. And for example, you had a great candidate in in Tallarico in Texas who won a really competitive primary and is going up against a Republican candidate who is beladen by scandal. And this is- Keith, if I may, I have to ask you this. Over the past decade, pollsters understated Trump's and Republicans' strength. Are the polls overestimating Democrats yet again? I would say the polls are not overestimating. In fact, most polls are within the margin of error. So it is a coin toss across so many of these districts. Again, where we started in January, that is just how much this landscape changed. So just like in 2024, where you had a bunch of states that you could have said one way or another would have gone for Kamala Harris or for Donald Trump in the presidential election, now you have the same situation here. Again, that's just how the map has shifted again. Briefly, Keith, to what extent would a Democratic Congress have the ability to roll back Trump's policies? That is a really good question, because right now, this Congress has been, I would say, very subservient to the president, and the president has shown little interest in governing with Congress. Now, with Democratic majorities, Democrats will certainly, and they have been very vocal about holding the president accountable and using their powers of oversight and investigation to try to do so. I think we are in uncertain times because the president normally in these next two years would go into what we call the lame duck status and would probably not get a lot done because, again, we're looking forward to the next presidential administration because we have another presidential election coming up next year all right all right thank you so much uh keith branham u.s election campaign insider thank you for your time this morning in a major diplomatic development two of ukraine's closest european allies have opened a direct line to vladimir putin as efforts to end russia's war gather pace the leaders of finland and norway initiated the call which could pave the way for peace talks in abu dhabi next month with Europe seeking a seat at the negotiating table. But the move has also raised a politically sensitive question in Brussels. Who speaks for Europe in negotiations with Moscow? Joining me now is our correspondent, Sasha Vakulina. Good morning, Sasha. So what came out of this phone conversation with Putin? And does that bring peace talks any closer? It does, actually. It was a huge diplomatic step. But at the same time, it was as delicate and as sensitive, diplomatically speaking, as it gets, Stefan, because both leaders say that they do represent only their national governments and they do not speak for the European Union. But still, the question is there and the tension is here. What about the EU? Do they represent the European Union? Do they represent Europe? They say no, but they did insist that they consulted both Ukraine and the European Union before going into those negotiations. Let's take a listen to what Alexander Stubb had to say commenting on it the discussion with president putin was professional and direct and we of course as norway and finland continue to support ukraine and work towards a lasting and just peace now the road towards a meeting with the united states ukraine russia and europeans have been paved for Abu Dhabi sometime in November. President Zelensky has also spoken about the next round of negotiations. What is he expecting and what conditions is he setting? Kyiv wants two things. Kyiv wants a ceasefire in any shape or form of it, and Kyiv wants to have direct talks with Russia. Both of those things Moscow has been rejecting for a very long time. Also, Moscow has been rejecting any possibility of direct talks with Europe as well. Stefan. So this is major. If the first time they allow the possibility of having European negotiators. At the same time, it's not clear whether Europe will be or the European Union will be represented at the talks in Abu Dhabi. So far, it is trilateral format still that is on the agenda. This is what Volodymyr Zelensky said about it. It is important that Europe is involved in all diplomatic efforts. Ukraine has always insisted that Europe must be present and must be involved in decision making. And this applies to Everyone in Europe. No one should be left out of the process. I would like to thank everyone who is actively involved and who is helping us. Active, who helps us. Our correspondent, Sasha Vakulina, thank you very much. A political earthquake in Serbia and potentially the end of an era. After years of protests, mounting anger over corruption and growing opposition to President Aleksandar Vučić, last Sunday's parliamentary elections have delivered a stunning upset, With the student-led opposition emerging victorious. But bringing down an entrenched political establishment is one thing. Governing a deeply divided country is quite another. So, is Serbia finally turning a page? Joining me now is Marko Preleć, senior Western Balkans analyst with the International Crisis Group. Good morning and thanks for being with us. Good morning, it's a pleasure to be here. So, the student movement united people from very different political backgrounds. now that their common enemy is gone what is holding them together uh that really remains to be seen i mean i think this the most important thing uh to keep in mind about the the the student movement it is is that it is not a political party in any sense this is really a totally unprecedented thing the people that won um none of them are a none of them are professional politicians that was one of the criteria for being uh listed on the the student movements campaign lists. There's no single leader. There's no charismatic figure. They really won the elections purely on the strength of their promise to turn the page after 14 years of the government of President Vucic. Serbians voted for change, obviously, particularly an end to corruption. How quickly can the new leadership deliver and what happens if it fails? I think this will take a long time. I mean, there's a lot, you know, it is 14 years of an entrenched system to, first of all, understand and investigate and then dismantle and replace with something else. I think there's, I think it's maybe premature to start worrying about what happens if they fail. They haven't even taken office yet. I think it's also likely that we overstate the extent to which the society is divided. A lot of people clung to the President Vucic's party because of the patronage system. So as that is dismantled, quite a few of them will fall away, leaving a smaller ideologically committed core, as happened with other parties in similar positions in the past. Brussels has welcomed the result, but is the EU celebrating too soon? I mean, do we actually know whether Serbia's new leaders want to bring the country closer to Europe? Well, they've said they do. They have been somewhat ambivalent about whether they mean that to mean eventual membership in the European Union, something which is really under a question mark for a variety of reasons. But they clearly do seek better relations with the member states of the European Union and with the EU itself, and constructive relations with their neighbors, which is also very important. All right, Marco Krelik from the International Crisis Group, thank you for your insights. Now, if you're a football fan, you might have heard about it. Kylian Mbappé, the captain of the French national team and one of the sport's global superstars, is in hot water. What got him there is his unfortunate nickname on social media, the dictator, over his huge influence on and off the pitch. While he was on a French talk show, the Real Madrid forward was asked about the funny online memes about him. He then said, the one that makes him laugh most is this picture of a man he thinks is a Chinese dictator. Those who didn't laugh were Chinese officials. Mbappé found himself quickly at the center of a diplomatic storm and a fierce backlash. Sensing that something was wrong, Mbappé then issued the following apology: my comment was ill-judged and i now understand that it hurt many people in china and in chinese communities around the world i apologize for to everyone my words have upset i'm sincerely sorry is that the end of it let's bring in irish sports journalist and football expert ken early good morning and good to see you ken morning good to too so is the lesson learned here that when you're a football star never joke about leaders who died half a century ago well uh it's not a rule that many players have have actually broken uh before now and i'm sure Kylian Mbappé was as surprised as anybody to discover uh that his comments made some six months ago had caused such uh such offense in China um but it's not the first time That's something along these lines has happened. The German player Mesut Ozil, who played for Arsenal at the time in 2019, posted on social media about the plight of the Uyghur people in China. And unlike what Mbappé has done, his was actually direct political criticism of China over what's happening with the Uyghur people there. And in that instance, well, they said, OK, Arsenal won't be on Chinese television anymore. and Mesut Ozil will not be mentioned in Chinese social media. And Arsenal, his club, quickly issued a response, distancing themselves, saying this is his opinion, not ours. And Ozil was in fact sold not long after that, although I don't think it was for that reason. But these types of things have happened before. And Ken, at least three Chinese companies have already cut ties with Mbappé. How much money could this controversy cost him? And how serious is the damage to his global brand? I don't think it's going to cause serious economic problems for Kylian Mbappé. Obviously, nobody wants to lose sponsors. I did see that Javier Tebas, who is the head of La Liga in Spain, went to visit the Chinese ambassador in Spain to apologize, which suggests that he at least sees it as potentially a problem if Real Madrid games aren't going to be shown on Chinese television. Now, I'm sure they will be. What usually happens is there's an angry response from China, and then there's an institutional apology, and then things get smoothed over. But it sort of shows this situation. Club sports leagues want to market to a global marketplace, but that global marketplace is divided into different political regimes and increasingly political statements of any kind. And Mbappé's wasn't even a political statement. He was simply laughing at a meme someone had presented to him, which had some political, satirical political content, that any political statement is going to cause commercial issues. OK, Ken Early, Irish sports journalist. Thank you very much for your thoughts on this this morning. And that does it for us today. Thank you for watching. I'm Stefan Grobe and I'll see you tomorrow.