Betting $100 Every Day for a Year: Day 294 (NFL Week 7 Picks)

Hello friends, welcome to day 294 of betting $100 every day for a year. Great day yesterday in college football, 4-1 for a profit of $55.31. Turns out I should have bet maybe a few of those underdogs to win outright. Would have been an even better day. But that brings our year-to-date record to 507 wins, 546 losses, 14 pushes for a loss of $116.25. cents uh we move on to NFL Sunday action once again five best bets twenty dollars on each let's begin with the 49ers minus two and a half minus 110 against the Falcons uh money keeps coming in on the Falcons all week i don't get it this 49ers team is arguably the best team in the NFL ranking inside the top five of the league in both EPA and opponent EPA per play uh meanwhile the Falcons secondary still not as healthy as it should be and now they have to take on the best quarterback they will have faced all season. I still think the Falcons have enough to keep pace here. Hopefully I'm wrong as a Falcons fan, but from a betting perspective, with this spread underneath the field goal, I got to take the 49ers. So I'll go 49ers minus two and a half, minus 110. A player prop that I like for today, $20 on Bryce Young, under 258 and a half passing yards at minus 110. This guy had never averaged more than 188 passing yards per game in his career and now all of a sudden he's averaging 309.8 so one of two possibilities either he has extremely improved from last season into this season or he's gotten off to a hot start he's being a little bit overrated and things are going to come crashing back down to earth i'm going to believe uh that it's more so the latter of the two options uh and i think this could be a good week where he does come crashing back down to earth a little bit because he does take on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is extremely underrated. Seventh in opponent dropback EPA. So I'm going to fade Bryce Young today. I'm going to sell high on my Bryce Young stock. Then I got $20 on the Rams, minus 3.5, minus 102 against the Raiders. I know the Rams have a laundry list of injuries coming into this week. They've disappointed so far this season. But this is a fade of a Raiders team that I just don't believe in. That defense that everyone thought was good through the first couple of weeks. They now rank 25th in opponent EPA per play and 27th in opponent success rate. As a team overall, they rank 26th in net yards per play. This is a team that can't run the football either. That means the only way they can succeed is on the arm of Kirk Cousins. And maybe I'm just a sour Falcons fan, but I don't trust Kirk Cousins to continue to play at this level. So I'm going to fade Kirk Cousins. I'm going to fade the Raiders. I think they're in over their heads in this game. I will take the Rams to cover the spread. Another player prop I like, this is my favorite player prop of the week. It is Bo Nix to throw over one and a half passing touchdowns at plus 110. I'm certainly far from a Bo Nix believer, but I think we do got to cut him a little bit of slack so far this season based on the defenses he's had to face. The Broncos have had the toughest schedule in the NFL through the first six weeks facing teams like the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks. He now gets to take on by far the easiest defense that he has faced so far this season. The Cardinals, 30th in opponent dropback EPA, 25th in opponent dropback success rate. They've given up 16 passing touchdowns to be in the season. That's the most in the NFL. So I expect a little bounce back performance from Bo Nix. Plus money for him just to throw two passing touchdowns against this defense. I like that bet. And then finally, Sunday Night Football. Give me the Chiefs plus 130 to upset the Seattle Seahawks. the Seahawks offense has a lot of issues that I'm concerned about they can't run the football Sam Darnold has turned into a little bit of a pumpkin through the first six weeks of the season and I know the Chiefs have had an easy schedule the Seahawks have lost some coin flip games but I don't think you can deny the Seahawks or the Chiefs are just a more well-rounded team right now especially offensively until I see the Seahawks be able to do anything successful past throwing the ball in the general direction of Jackson, Smith, and Jigba and hope he does something. I'm going to fade them. I think they're being a little bit overpriced in the betting market, so I'll go Chiefs plus 130 to win that game outright. Those are my five best bets for NFL Week 7 Sunday action. Good luck to all your bets. Gamble or bless. We will see you back here tomorrow.