The Mavericks are about to ROB the Warriors...

Two nights ago, Walker Kessler walked into the Warriors' opener and went 12-for-12. The Warriors' center hover that night was 40-year-old Al Horford, 17 minutes, and he scored no points. And their real starting center, you ask, Kristaps Porzingis? Well, he might never play again, and now Golden State is shopping for a big man in the middle of a season that's already slipping just a couple games in. And that's where the Mavericks come in, because Dallas has exactly what the Warriors need, and Dallas has been trying to move him all summer. The Lakers are already sniffing around Daniel Gafford, but the Lakers aren't the team that should get him. They're the team Dallas should use to make the Warriors pay. In today's video, we're going to tell you why this trade fits under the Warriors' cap almost perfectly, the reason the Lakers can't win this bidding war, and the one risk about this that Dallas should think twice about. Let's start with why Dallas would even do this, because Gafford has been good for this team. In February of 2024, Dallas traded Rashawn Holmes and a first-round pick to Washington to get him, and he was a big part of the run to the finals that June. Last season, he played 55 games, had 9.5 points with 6.9 rebounds per game and 1.3 blocks. In under 22 minutes, he also shot at 65.5% from the field, all really solid stats. In the season before he got there, 2023-2024, he shot 72.5% from the field over 74 games. He doesn't take bad shots. He catches, he dunks, and he gets back on defense. And in the opener, a game Dallas lost by 18, Gafford was plus 9 in 22 minutes, the best plus minus on the entire team. So the question you're asking, why sell then if he's their starting center without Derek Lively? Well, because of the contract and because of exactly that. Who's behind him? Gafford is owed $54.4 million over three seasons, $17.3 million this year, and then $18.1 million, and then $19 million. By the way, if you want to track every single number in this video, you can go check out our new website, DigestSports.com, for every Mavs deal year by year. And the key part is who's behind him. Dallas just used the No. 9 pick on Marrez Johnson, technically a center. Derek Lively is also still working his way back from foot surgery, and some Mavs already want Marrez starting, alongside the thought process that Moussa Sissé should earn some more time as well. A good player, on a fair contract, at a position where you already have your future. That's not a player you dump, that's a player you sell to the highest bidder. Now let's look at Golden State. Porzingis was supposed to be their starting center this season. However, he missed all of camp in the preseason with Potts, and Shams reported that he is now seriously thinking about his future in basketball. And Steve Kerr, he didn't hide from it. Quote, you can't deny that Kristaps was plugged in our starting lineup. His absence is definitely a blow. Then came opening night. Lakers beat the Warriors 127-105. Kessler had 26 points without missing a shot, and he was plus 24. Curiously like what they have in Graham Ike and Charles Bassey. Ike is on a two-way contract. Bassey is on a minimum deal. That's not a plan for a team that wants to make the playoffs with a 38-year-old Steph Curry. No Porzingis, a 40-year-old in the middle, a center going perfect against them, and a season that already one game old is wobbling. And here's the thing, the Warriors have wanted Gafford before. Back in January, Golden State had him on its list of bigs, and his name came up on exploratory talks with the Dallas Mavericks. And Shams says the Warriors are willing to take on future money for the right player, and they have a good pool of assets to do so. Future money is exactly what Gafford's contract is. A rim-running, shot-blocking big who can catch lobs next to Steph Curry, and that's the exact role that Kristaps Porzingis left for them. Now, I get it, we're just one game in, but even the market has already given up on them. On Kalshi, the Warriors' chance to make the playoffs dropped to 38% after the Porzingis news. Speaking of Kalshi, that's today's sponsor, because on Kalshi, you're trading directly against other users, not the house like a traditional sportsbook. You're buying yes-or-no contracts on the outcome of events across sports, politics, or even the weather. Now, tonight, obviously, the Mavs take on the Pacers at 7, and a yes on the Mavs is at 30% right now. An $80 trade has a max payout of $254.20. If you are interested in trying out our presenting sponsor, Kalshi, use the link in the description or in the pinned comment. And when new users who sign up with the code digest NBA trade $25, you're going to get an extra $55 instantly. Thank you, Kalshi, for sponsoring today's show. Now, the Lakers. Their insider, Jovan Buha, floated Gafford this week as a more realistic target than Herb Jones or Dereck Lively. But even Buha has his doubts. Earlier this month, he worried that Gafford would become the fourth highest-paid Laker and said he wouldn't throw in a pick swap to get him. Gafford and Luka back together sounds great in LA, but look at what the Lakers can actually offer. The young players that Buha named, Adu Thoro and Cameron Carr, make about $5.5 million combined. Gafford makes $17.3 million, and both of them are hurt right now. You want to talk about picks? Well, the Lakers don't have much. They only own three of their next seven first-round picks, and two of those come with swap strings attached to Utah. And one of the picks that the Lakers don't have already, their 2029 first round pick unprotected, well Dallas owns it from the Luka trade. Oh, and the Lakers already found their center. That was Walker Kessler who went 12 for 12, and Daniel Gafford, the guy every fake Gafford trade sent to Dallas, just signed with the Knicks today. I mean, let's just put the two teams side by side. Golden State owns six of its next seven first, the Lakers own three, the Warriors just lost their starting center, and the Lakers, they watch theirs go perfect. The Lakers don't need to win this, they just need to make a call, because the second Golden State hears LA's interested, the price jacks itself up for Gafford. So here's exactly how Dallas is going to rob the Warriors with this. Golden State is hard-capped at the second apron. That means they can't take back more salary than they send out. And they can't combine contracts to do so. Porzingis makes $20 million this season. Gafford makes $17.3 million. Porzingis for Gafford straight up? Yeah, it works. And for Dallas, Porzingis is basically an expiring deal. Only a small partial guarantee next season. Gafford lasts two years, has $37.1 million coming off the books. And here's where the Dallas Mavericks get leverage. A league source told the San Francisco Chronicle that Porzingis has too many question marks to justify trading for. Translation, almost nobody else will take that contract. Dallas taking it is a favor, and favors will they cost draft picks. And yes, Porzingis was of course a Maverick once. Dallas traded him away in 2022, and this would be the strangest homecoming in league history. But the money that matches isn't a robbery. The robbery is the picks that come attached with it. Golden State owns their next three first-round picks, along with their first-round picks in 2031, 2032, and 2033. Now, Kerr has said that he's not going to throw away the future. Quote, do we throw away our entire future to build around a 39-year-old Steph? Hell no. He was talking about five firsts for a superstar. Gafford isn't a superstar, he's a $17 million center. One first for him isn't throwing away the future. That's the kind of deal Kerr says yes to. So if I'm Dallas, the ask is relatively simple. Porzingis, plus the first, plus the second. And if the Warriors say no, you pick up the phone and call the Lakers loudly and tell the Warriors you're doing so. Now, of course, there is a risk in all this, and it's the center position for the Dallas Mavericks. Lively has had foot surgery in back-to-back years and still wasn't cleared for camp in September. Marrej Johnson, a rookie, well, in the opener, he was minus 20 in 14 minutes. You trade Gafford, then Lively's foot acts up again. Dallas is starting a rookie at center in the West. They do have the option of Santi Aldama, but it's kind of putting them in a tough spot either way. And let's be clear, the opener wasn't Gafford's fault. Dallas lost the second quarter 38-12, and in the 5 minutes and 44 seconds he sat in the middle of it, Houston outscored Dallas 25-6. Trading him, it does not fix that. This is about value, though, and not blaming somebody for the first loss. However, there also is a flip side to this. Gafford played 55 games last season and 57 the year before. He's 28, and his money goes up every year until 2029. His value is never going to be higher than right now. With a desperate team on the clock, and the clock that is real as the trade deadline is February 11th, he's just 111 days away. Every week that Golden State waits, they get more desperate. And every week Dallas waits, Mraz gets more minutes, and Gafford looks more like a backup. The best time is to sell now. So at the end of the day, let's not sell Gafford to the team that wants him. Let's sell him to the team that needs him. The Lakers are there to drive up the price. Meanwhile, the Warriors, they're the one who actually will fork it up. However, I want to know for you, if Gafford gets traded, where would you rather send him? The Warriors or the Lakers? Comment W for Warriors or L for Lakers, and I want to see what you think. And if you want every Mavs trade rumor broken down before it happens, well, subscribe right here to Mavericks Digest, and we're going to see you in the next one. We appreciate you watching. Peace out.