This just proved what we all feared...

This just confirmed what we all feared. Tonight, the Bears beat the Patriots 30-24, and the Patriots never led, not once, all night. Now, Thursday morning, before kickoff, I told you there were three things that scared me about this game. Two backup guards in front of Drake May, a Bears offense that wants to run the ball and keep it away from you, and a team that hadn't won the turnover battle all season. And all three of them happened in one night, which led to the Patriots' loss. But here's what nobody is talking about yet. By the numbers, the Patriots were the better offense tonight. So how do you lose by six when you're the better offense? That's what we're going to break down and talk about how the line, the clock, and third down management, and the one habit that just won't die for this team. And make sure you stay to the end because there's one piece of good news in all of this. Now, real quick, let's go through how it happened. The Patriots first drive crossed midfield and died on fourth and five when Kyler Gordon sacked May. Then Caleb Williams hit Luther Burden on a deep ball for 58 yards. DeAndre Swift punched it in, and it was 10-0 Bears after one quarter. Now, May did answer with a seven-yard touchdown run that only counted because Mike Vrabel challenged it, but it was a great play. Now, late in the half at the Bears' 15, May threw into the end zone, and DeMarco Jackson picked it off. It was a pretty abysmal throw. According to ESPN, that's his third interception on a throw into the end zone this season, so not great. The Bears then proceeded to go 80 yards the other way and score with 14 seconds left in the half, but thankfully, in the craziest fashion ever, May hit Ramondre Stevenson late with three seconds left for a 48-yard touchdown as time expired, and we got to go into the half just trailing by six, 20-14. In the third, it was the top picks trading touchdowns, Williams to Colston Loveland, then May to rookie tight end Alan Riradon from 30 yards out, and it was 27-21. And then the Bears held the ball for 12 minutes and 21 seconds of the fourth quarter and hit a 58-yard field goal with a minute 34 left, and then, of course, recovered the onside kick that ultimately decided the game. The Patriots put themselves in a chance to win, But ultimately, the three-game win streak falls tonight, and the Patriots are now 4-3. And honestly, the Patriots, and unfortunately, the people with the money on the line saw this coming. Today on Game Day, traders on Kalshi had the Bears at 59% to win this one, and they were right. Speaking of Kalshi, that's our sponsor today on Count. On Kalshi, you're trading directly against other users, not the house like a traditional sportsbook. You're buying yes-or-no contracts on the outcome of events across sports, politics, or even the weather, for example. Now, the Patriots don't play again until November 1st. So tomorrow night, I'm watching another Boston team in the Knicks and Celtics games. And right now, trading yes on the Celtics is at 56%, and an $80 trade has a max payout of $138.57. Which is pretty good to me, so I'm going to put it in. And if you're interested in trying out Kalshi and trading this as well, you can use the link in the description or in the pinned comment of today's show. And when new users who use the code DIGESTNFL trade $25, you get an extra $55 instantly added into your account. Thank you to Kalshi for sponsoring today's show. So let's go through all the things that I said needed to go right. And fear number one, the offensive line for the Patriots. With Elijah Vera Tucker and Ben Brown out, and speaking of Elijah Vera Tucker, he's now placed on IR, Roltor Rouse made his first career start at left guard and Matt Pryor started at right guard. Morgan Moses was active and started at right tackle with the foot injury next to Jared Wilson at the center position, and Will Campbell was, of course, at left tackle. And this, of course, showed up on the very first drive with his backup offensive lineman because on the third snap, a completion in Bears territory came back on a holding call on Rouse. Five plays later, the drive was over because it was fourth and five, and Gordon got home. But here's the stretch that sums up the whole night. It was the end of the third quarter. Patriots are down six, and the Patriots have third and one near midfield. Will Campbell commits a false start. Then it goes to third and six. May then scrambles for four yards. You get a fourth down and two, and the Patriots' offense stays out there to go for it. Matt Pryor, backup offensive lineman, then has a false start. Fourth and seven, you're forced to punt. And of course, then the Bears had the ball for the next seven minutes. Four of the Patriots' ten penalties were on offensive linemen. two holds, two false starts. Rouse, Moses, Campbell, and Pryor, every one of them wiped out a gain or pushed this team backwards, which of course also affected the run game as well. The Patriots running backs had 13 carries for just 44 yards, and the team had three rushing first downs all night and in the fourth quarter. The Patriots didn't call a single run. May was sacked twice and hit six times, and the worst one came on the worst moment. The Bears miss a 53-yard field goal on the upright eight minutes left down six and the ball is at their own 43 well guess what you get an incomplete pass Drake Mayes trying to figure it out and then a 10 yard sack which means that third and 20 and one play later you punt the ball back ESPN's win probability had the patriots at 25% right after that miss three plays later after the punt it was down to 19 Michael Hurley who covers the patriots posted about this sack saying quote Morgan Moses is the only o-lineman to block somebody on this play but an unaccounted rusher also came off on his side. So there's fear number one and problem number one that we just got confirmed. A line that was banged up, could not stay on schedule. And when you can't stay on schedule in your offense, you don't keep the ball. The second problem and fear number two, and this one is the one that actually beat them. Here's the strange part. The Patriots averaged 7.6 yards per play and the Bears averaged only 6.1. And by success rate, which is share of plays that gain enough yards to keep you on schedule, the Patriots were at 51% and the Bears were at 48. So the Patriots were staying on schedule more often than the Bears offense, but it didn't feel like it. The question is, how do you lose when you win both these stats? Well, volume. The Bears ran 66 plays while the Patriots ran just 50. And Chicago had the ball for 32 minutes and 24 seconds. And funny enough, they actually only led the time possession at the very end of the game. The Patriots had the ball for more until that seven-minute drive. And they did it on the ground. 30 carries for 116 yards, 22 of them for DeAndre Swift, and the Patriots missed 16 tackles, according to NBC Sports Boston. 16 missed tackles just can't happen. It wasn't one big run. It was a few yards, then a few more every single snap. The defense just, quite frankly, couldn't get off the field. I mean, let's just take a look at the fourth quarter, to be honest. Bears, 23 plays. The Patriots only ran seven. Chicago had the ball for 12 minutes and 21 seconds of the 15 you had in the fourth. And then, of course, the dagger. A minute 56 left. Bears up six, third and one, and the Patriots 41. Get a stop, and May gets the ball back with all three timeouts. Corey Durden jumps off sides. You get a free first down. I think that might have been intentional, to be honest. But anyways, the Patriots then have to burn all three timeouts. And you sack Caleb Williams with the balls of Mr. Ben Johnson. Cairo Santos comes in from a career long and hits a 58-yard field goal to make it a two-score game. And, well, that about put the nail in the coffin. And so that just confirmed the problem in fear number two. They didn't gash it with one big run. They just kept the ball and never really gave it back. Now let's get into it because the third downs are something that is even more frustrating. and that's where the Bears really won this game, too. Patriots were 2-for-7 on third down and 0-for-1 on fourth. And while the Bears only converted four of their 12 third downs, you have to look at which ones they converted to really see why this was a problem. 3rd and 17, 14 seconds before the half, Williams to Burton, and it's a 24-yard touchdown, and thank God for Ramondre, otherwise, without that, it might have been game earlier. Early fourth quarter, 3rd and 11 on their own 13, Williams to Odunze, 21 yards, and that's the drive that almost ate seven minutes. Then on 4th and 2, Loveland for 9 yards. He just never could get off the field. And then, of course, on the field goal, there was a holding call that wiped out a swift run on 3rd and 1 that turned into a 3rd and 9. And then, of course, right after, Williams to Odunze, 21 yards again. So the Patriots defense had three big third downs, and yet the Bears converted through the air needed on 17, 11, and 9 yards when they got 24, 21, and 21 yards. You simply just can't have that happen if you want to win a football game, even when you are manned down with your defense and your offense. Burton finished with four catches for 130 yards. Williams went 22 of 33 for 308, two touchdowns. And the key one, zero interceptions when Drake Maye had one. Which, of course, is the real difference. Two quarterbacks, two top-tier ones, but only one of them gave the ball away tonight. Which, of course, is fear number three, and it's becoming a habit at this point. Now, I want to be fair to Drake Maye because he was really good tonight. 24 of 31, 321, two touchdowns and a 117 passer rating, plus another touchdown on the ground. But the one mistake, of course, was in the end zone. Bears drove 80 yards for seven right after he made that pick. I want to hear the quotes, though, because I feel like that might have supposed to have been a curl route, and the receiver, or I guess the tight end at that moment, ran the wrong route, so maybe it wasn't actually Drake Maye's fault, but at the same time, there was a wide-open crosser that he just completely missed. Which, of course, makes it seven games and seven times the Patriots have not won the turnover battle, and somehow you're still four and three. Fourteen giveaways and seven takeaways, which is just obviously minus seven on the season, is not a way to win football games. And last week, Mike Vrabel called the turnovers an embarrassment. Tonight, the defense didn't take the ball away once, and you're not going to beat good teams like that. So where exactly does this leave this team? 4-3, a game and a half back of the Bills and the AFC East. But I promised you some good news, and so I'll give it to you. The Patriots don't play again for 10 days, and next up is Miami on November 1st, and the Dolphins, well, they're 0-5. So in a lot of ways, the Patriots should have a game to get back on the schneid, get to 5-3, and feel a lot more comfortable. And in those 10 days, there's a lot of things that the Patriots can do to make this team better. Obviously, you've got to help out on the offensive line and have a better game plan for May in some ways, but it also allows you to go out and make some trades on the offensive line. Over the next couple of days, we've got multiple offensive line trade videos lined up, so be aware for those because you've got to make a move, especially with Elijah Varchelor being placed on the IR today. Now, I do want to know what worries you more after tonight. Type L in the comments if you're more concerned about the offensive line, or D if you think the defense is really looking like a struggle bus as of late. And of course, not to say I called it, but this morning we posted a last minute news rumors and I talked about all three of those fears before they happened. So if you got a preview coming up, make sure you watch it because I feel like I got a pretty good idea of what's going on with my team. All that to be serious, though, we appreciate your support and we'll see you in the next video. Peace out.