Exploring the reasons behind Hokkaido's low population density
Oct 23, 2026
Why is Hokkaido basically empty?
If you don't want to watch the full video,
here's the short answer.
It's cold.
Now let's get started.
Japan is an archipelago in East Asia and it's beautiful.
Now that the mandatory billboards reference is out of the way,
Japan is one of the most densely
populated countries in the world.
With a population of approximately 125 million people, yet
only 4% of them live in one of the country's biggest islands,
the northernmost one called
Hokkaido. And to be fair,
the population distribution throughout the country is
far from uniform. The majority
of Japan's inhabitants live in a few densely packed
urban areas with vast portions
of the country remaining sparsely populated.
But one of the most striking examples
of this uneven distribution is in fact Hokkaido,
the northernmost of Japan's main islands and the third largest in size.
It accounts for 20%
of the country's territory.
Despite that significant land area, comparable to the
size of entire countries like Austria
or even close to neighboring South Korea,
Hokkaido is home to only about 5 million people.
I mean, South Korea has about 50 million, that's
10 times more with a similar size.
It also has a significantly lower population density compared
to the other major regions in Japan
so in this video we are going to find out why it is so empty
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Now Japan's population is like
I said concentrated in very specific regions
with the majority of people residing in Honshu the
largest and most central island.
Within it the Kanto region which includes Tokyo is by far the
most populated area housing over 37 million people
in the greater Tokyo metropolitan area alone.
That area is 13.5 thousand square kilometers, about six times
smaller than Hokkaido, but with seven times more people.
To be fair, it is the most populous urban area in the world,
so maybe it's a little bit unfair of a comparison, but still.
Other highly populated areas include the Kansai region, home to Osaka,
Kyoto, and Kobe, and the Chubu region, including Nagoya.
In contrast, Japan's rural regions,
including Tohoku and Hokkaido, have much lower population
densities. This uneven distribution is largely influenced by geography.
Japan is a predominantly
mountainous country,
with approximately 73% of its land covered by mountains. I mean,
if we look at a terrain map, we can instantly see this.
Most of the land is brown slash yellow,
showing its elevation, with very few green, flat areas.
As a result, flat and habitable land
is limited, leading to a concentration
of people in those coastal and lowland areas.
It's part of the reason why they have mega regions or megalopolis too,
the flatland is so limited that cities end up merging into each other.
Additionally, we have some economic aspects that
explain the emptiness of Hokkaido and other parts of the country.
The country's economy has historically been centered around trade,
farming and manufacturing,
all activities that need flatlands to function, and so further
reinforcing the concentration of people in those areas.
Beyond topography, historical developments
such as industrialization and urbanization
also played a major role in shaping Japan's current
population distribution.
Industrial centers like Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya grew exponentially due
to technological advances.
The presence of government institutions, corporate headquarters,
and educational centers came after
and also attracted people to those regions. It's sort
of a repetitive cycle right there's a few people in these places
and so all the institutions jobs
and government officials go there
and then more people go there because of that development by
contrast rural regions namely Hokkaido lack
these extensive industrial developments and this caused
slower population growth
and helped the fact that it remained largely rural today the largest
economic sectors in Hokkaido are farming,
fishing and tourism, contrasting with the rest of Japan
where industry and service providers are the main ones.
So let's take a look at Hokkaido specifically
to better understand it.
Hokkaido has an area of about 83,450 square kilometers, making it the
third largest island in Japan,
yet it is home to only 5.1 million people, about 4% of the country's
total of 124.5 million people.
This gives it a population density of approximately 60 people
per square kilometer, which is significantly
lower than the national average
of around 330 people per square kilometer.
To put this into perspective
and compare it again to the country's capital, Tokyo has
a staggering population density
of over 6,000 people per square kilometer.
To create a second layer of contrast,
most of Hokkaido's population itself is also
concentrated in just a few urban centers,
particularly in Sapporo, the island's capital
and largest city.
It alone has about 2 million residents,
meaning that nearly 40% of Hokkaido's population
is concentrated in this single city.
Other relatively populated areas include Asahikawa,
Asahikawa, and Kushiro, but outside these cities
vast portions of the island remain sparsely populated
or even completely empty.
Again, terrain is mostly at fault.
And we can go back to that terrain map to visualize it.
Much of the island's land is covered by forests and mountains,
which have been closed
off in many cases and delimited as national parks,
limiting areas suitable for habitation.
Additionally, the transportation infrastructure
is not as extensive as in other parts of Japan.
While Hokkaido does have a railway system and highways,
these networks are not as dense
or as well connected as those in Honshu for instance, the main island.
I believe the popular bullet trains also don't exist there,
making travel and commuting less
convenient.
The lower level of infrastructure development has
also played a role in discouraging people
from living there.
But there's also the issue of climate,
and it might even be the main one here.
Because the island is considerably far north
at latitude 43 degrees north of the equator.
Imagine places like Northern China,
South Mongolia, Bulgaria or South Dakota in the
US, all of them are reasonably cold places.
A fun fact, the southern border of the state
of South Dakota is actually the parallel line
itself.
But anyway.
We can understand that one of the primary reasons
for Hokkaido's low population is also
its harsh climate.
They experience a humid continental climate with long harsh winters
and very heavy snowfall.
Winter temperatures can drop below 10 degrees Celsius
in many areas making daily life and
infrastructure maintenance more challenging.
The snowfall affects everything, transportation,
construction, roads and railways require extensive
maintenance during winter
and snow related delays are pretty common apparently.
Agriculture, which also plays a crucial role
in Hokkaido's economy, is also impacted by
the climate. The cold weather limits the types
of crops that can be grown, with farming primarily
focusing on hardier crops such as potatoes,
wheat and dairy farming which brings us a very
interesting contrast with the rest of Japan and Asia in general.
Because unlike the more
temperate regions of Japan where rice paddies dominate,
Hokkaido's agricultural output differs
significantly. This is relevant for the population issue
because those crops aren't able to feed as
many people. I read somewhere an additional argument
of Hokkaido's terrain being rugged,
with extensive mountains and volcanic activity,
with the island being prone to natural disasters
such as earthquakes and typhoons,
further complicating large-scale human settlement, but
isn't that the case with all Japan?
I mean, I feel like every other month we see some news report
about a new typhoon, a new flood,
a new earthquake that the country sadly had to go through, so I
don't think it's as valid as an argument here.
Other than terrain or weather, there's also the
historical and social aspects of the island.
And in fact one other common challenge that it faces
along with the rest of Japan is a very aging population.
The island has super low birth rates
and the smallest base population they have compared
to the rest of Japan makes it a more
serious issue for them than the rest of the country.
However I think it's also in its history
that the problem lies.
Hokkaido has a unique history compared to the rest of Japan and for
most of that history, the island was not fully integrated
into the country. It was traditionally
inhabited by the indigenous Ainu people,
who had a distinct culture and way of life, centered around
hunting and fishing. Those people were also native
to the today Russian islands of Sakhalin,
the Kuril Islands, and the Kamchatka Peninsula,
essentially all the land surrounding the Sea
of Okhotsk. It was only during the late 19th century,
under the Meiji Restoration period,
that Japan actively colonized Hokkaido,
encouraging migration from Honshu and attempting to develop
the island to take advantage of its natural resources.
And that process of Japanese colonization
of Hokkaido was somewhat disastrous to the island in the long run.
The native Ainu were subject to
mandatory assimilation.
Imperial Japan forced Ainu people off of their land, with many leaving
Hokkaido entirely to go work somewhere else in Japan.
This in turn forced them to give up
traditional ways of life such as subsistence hunting and fishing.
Ainu people were not allowed
to practice their religion either
and were placed into Japanese language schools where
speaking the Ainu language was forbidden
and this caused the language to essentially die out.
In 1966 there were about 300 native Ainu speakers,
in 2008 only 100 left and today likely even less
there are some efforts to revive it.
And the thing is the imperial colonization worked. Estimates of
the Ainu population vary, but official Japanese
government figures suggest that today there's only
about 13,000 self-identified Ainu in Hokkaido.
Some researchers argue that the actual number
might be higher, some people don't want to admit to being Ainu
because of the blowback that they
might suffer, there's still some degree
of discrimination today, and also the fact that
that they might just not know that they have Ainu heritage.
More generous estimates point
to around 25-30 thousand people being Ainu in Hokkaido.
But this still means that over 99%
of the island's population consists of ethnic Japanese,
with the Ainu making up less than 0.5% of the total population.
The forced exile of the island's native people
and the forced development by the Japanese
might have broken the natural evolution
and growth of the island's development, maybe
they had been able to keep their identity,
there would be more people living on the island today.
But there's something else that we need
to mention here as we wrap up the video.
Despite its relatively small population in the Japanese context,
Hokkaido still has more inhabitants than many countries
I mean, 5 million people is a lot.
For instance, it has a higher population than New Zealand,
Ireland, and even getting close to
Norway. It's just the context, you know?
Japan has so many people and the island is so big in
proportion to the rest of the archipelago
that it's odd that so few people live there but after
understanding the terrain weather
and social slash historical aspects of the island it does make it a
little easier to understand why that is the case
so that is why so few people live in the northern
most and third largest island in the archipelago
of Japan what are some other sparsely populated
areas in other countries let me know
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