Countries at risk of disappearing in the near future

Currently, the most recently created country in the world is South Sudan, having become independent in 2011. And soon, Bougainville will be the youngest country in the world, having already voted for its independence from Papua New Guinea. But as new countries continue to emerge, with some breaking apart into many, and others asserting their self-determination, others might disappear. In this video, I want to take a look at which countries might not exist in the near future. We're going to take a look at four scenarios in which various countries could disappear. First, invasion or annexation. Then, union or merging with another nation. Third, physical disappearance due to climate change. And fourth, breaking apart into two or more countries. For each of these, I'll use a few examples of countries that might disappear in the next 10 to 20 years. Before we move on with the video, a quick message about today's sponsor, Babbel, the best way for you to learn a new language. 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Use the link in the description to get up to 65% off your subscription and start learning a new language with Babbel today. So now, going back to the video, let's jump right into it. First, which countries might disappear through invasion or annexation? Recent events have proven that a sovereign country isn't easy to invade and occupy in modern times. Regardless, there might still be a few that try doing this again. The first country that jumps to the mind of many as a possible target of invasion is Taiwan. Whether you support its independence or not, Taiwan is effectively a sovereign country. Despite this, China doesn't stop claiming its territory and rule over it. Chinese leaders have in fact stated that sooner or later, Taiwan will fall under their control. Whether a full-scale invasion will take place is uncertain, and whether one would succeed is equally doubtful, especially when a great power like the United States has stated that they would intervene in the defense of Taiwan should that be the case. But the risk is still there, and this could be one of the countries that we see disappear in the next decades. As the world stands today, I believe this is the only country at a real risk of invasion and perhaps collapse due to that hypothetical attack. So let's move on to the second hypothesis for countries disappearing, union or merger with another nation. Some people have argued this could be a possibility for China to regain Taiwan by somehow managing to influence the people enough to elect a pro-China candidate, eventually voting themselves into a union with China and avoiding conflict. I honestly don't know enough about the topic to tell you if this is a real possibility or not, but I find it highly unlikely due to the historical context of the situation. Taiwan was populated by many who escaped mainland China after the People's Republic won their internal conflict. They escaped that regime and now live in a completely different one. It's unlikely that they or their descendants would want to go back to it and lose much of what they have. But there are a few other examples in the world of countries that might disappear by uniting with others. nearby, North and South Korea might finally be able to reconcile and rejoin as a single united peninsula. Despite northern rhetoric, there have been significant efforts for approximation and negotiations over the past years. When the two countries competed together in the Winter Olympics in 2018, they competed under a united, joint Korean peninsula flag. By the end of 2021, they agreed in principle on a formal end to the war that's technically been on hold with an armistice. It might take a couple decades, but it's not impossible for the two countries to reunite. A few other countries that might, not exactly disappear, but lose their status of countries include Rwanda, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, who have agreed to create a new country, the East African Federation. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has also stated their intention to join, but I'm not sure if that's official. While the East African Federation has not yet been established, many steps have been taken to advance the eventual goal. Institutions and governing bodies already exist for the eventual union, with representatives from all the member nations working together towards it. Should it happen, a new country will be created, with six others technically disappearing as countries, becoming member states. South Sudan is one of the countries that might disappear through the creation of the East African Federation, but it might also disappear if it ends up rejoining with North Sudan. They broke apart in 2011, with the South wanting to become independent, for many reasons, one of which being the religious difference between the two regions, but their existence as an independent state has been riddled with difficulties and internal struggles. And so, a step back and a rejoining with the North might not be completely off the books. Another country that might be absorbed into its neighbor is Belarus. Belarusian independence is somewhat of a question mark, as it is right now, but as the country moves further and further away from Europe and closer to Russia, it's likely that it could be incorporated as a republic within the Russian Federation itself. Moving on to the third hypothesis, and sadly the most likely chance for countries disappearing in the near future, climate change, more specifically global warming and the rise of the water level. As the planet becomes hotter every passing year, the ice on the poles begins to melt more and more. This will eventually cause the water level in our oceans to rise and many small island nations across the world Especially in the Indian and Pacific Ocean might find themselves submerged This has actually begun happening in a few locations throughout these regions like the Indonesian capital for instance through this There's a number of countries that might not just disappear as nations But in fact be completely wiped off the map sinking underwater water. Some examples of that are Kiribati, the Maldives, Vanuatu, Tuvalu and the Solomon Islands. And finally the fourth hypothesis, countries disappearing by breaking apart into two or more new ones. There are tons of independence movements throughout the world, some more serious than others, some with real support and others just being a small group of people with a dream. I'm going to try and focus on the more serious and viable ones, but keep in mind that even these are somewhat unlikely to happen, at least part of them. First of all, we have to mention the United Kingdom. The collapse of the UK after Brexit, territorially speaking, has not so far taken place. Polls for Scottish independence continue to be very tied at around 50%, but remaining with the UK seems to have maintained a slight lead, confirming the results of the 2014 referendum. However, the situation in Northern Ireland seems to be deteriorating. On the other hand, a party which defends a republic system and union with the Republic of Ireland won the latest elections, the demographic trend shows that protestant people are becoming less and less with Catholics growing in number. The whole situation with the border, the special status of Northern Ireland within Brexit all seems a very fragile situation waiting for a spark to light the flame and the locals wanting to break away from the UK and rejoin with the south. If that were to happen, Scotland might want independence for themselves and and the dominoes could begin to fall, leaving the UK as only England and Wales. Another country that could disappear due to separation is Spain. Spain's only serious independence movement seems to be the one in Catalonia, we saw that happen with their one-sided unofficial referendum, a local government's declaration of independence and even the arrest of local leaders. Things seem to have calmed down recently and parties that are pro-Spanish unity seem to have been doing well in local elections, but the desire for Catalan independence still exists in a great part of the population there and a new effort for independence might come in the near future. Spain's history of coming together as a single nation somewhat late and the fact that many independent kingdoms existed within its territory throughout time makes it so that it coming apart isn't impossible. Independence movements also exist in Galicia, Andalusia and the Basque Country. Recent scandals have led to a lot of questions being asked about the monarchy regime and And whether it remains or is replaced by a republic, it could lead to the end of Spanish unity. And a third one, Belgium. Flanders and Wallonia continue to have their differences, one being more Dutch and the other more French, although both having their own internal cultures of course. Polls from 2019 suggest that if a referendum on separation were to take place, about 40% of Flemings would vote to break away from Belgium. Wallonia could remain as Belgium or change its name to that. The two areas could become independent or each be absorbed by the Netherlands and France respectively. Other than in Europe, some other countries throughout the world might also face separation. Due to various issues, Libya is struggling to resolve an internal conflict where essentially two sides rule different parts of the country. If unresolved, this might become permanent, dissolving Libya as we have come to know it. The same or at least a similar situation happens in Yemen. And Somalia is essentially already separated in two with the creation of Somaliland. But in this case you could argue that Somalia would continue to exist, just losing part of its territory, in a similar way to what could happen to Bosnia and Herzegovina if one half of their country, Republika Srpska, declared independence. So those are a few countries that might not exist in the coming decades or at least in the near future, one due to invasion, others due to union with neighboring countries, others due to climate change and even more due to the possibility of breaking apart. The ones that are sadly most likely to come true are the ones that will disappear due to the rising of the water level. Even with some effort to revert climate change, it's likely that a good amount of ice will still melt from the poles and many regions of the world that are at a low elevation might find themselves submerged. The Taiwan situation will, I would say, not come to a full invasion but might remain a point of tension and concern in Asia. Countries coming together would, I would say, after climate change, be the most likely possibility for a few countries not existing anymore, although they technically would still exist just jointly with some of their neighbors. And country separations are always a possibility that might come to fruition. But what do you think? Are any of these potential scenarios possible? And are there any others that I didn't mention? Let me know in the comments below. Thanks so much for watching this video, subscribe if you want and I will see you next time for more general knowledge.