Brazil: Why should you care about the country's elections?

Brazil votes on October 25th, in a runoff that could redraw Latin America's political map. In the first round vote, Jair Bolsonaro, a federal senator and son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, beat incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by a little over 2 million votes. But why should you care about the Brazilian elections? 1. Geopolitics. If Bolsonaro wins, Brazil would join a growing list of Latin American countries swinging to the far right and joining U.S. President Donald Trump's Shield of the Americas. Lula, on the other hand, has brought Brazil closer to China since taking office by signing many agreements regarding trade and technology. But he has also favored multilateralism, notably by pushing efforts to finalize the Mercosur European Union Free Trade Agreement. 2. Critical Minerals Brazil holds the second largest reserves of rare earths, used for digital and defense technologies. In September, an American company in which the U.S. government has a stake completed the purchase of Brazil's only commercial rare earth producer, Serra Verde, in a deal valued at about $2.8 billion. Brazil then passed a law creating a council to review critical mineral deals. This legislation, which establishes a very important regulatory structure, I think is going to be wholly ignored by a potential incoming Jair Bolsonaro presidency. De Boel assumes Bolsonaro's alignment with Washington could come at Europe's expense. But she notes the U.S. lacks the processing technology that China dominates, so Brazil can't afford to pick a side. 3. The Amazon Under Jair Bolsonaro, deforestation rose nearly 60% more than in previous years. As a senator, Flávio Bolsonaro has defended various initiatives detrimental to the environment, such as relaxing environmental licensing and restricting the demarcation of indigenous lands. Since 2022, the year before the Lula administration came into power, the Brazilian rainforest's deforestation rate has slowed by around 70%. But Lula has also backed oil drilling near the mouth of the Amazon River, while many environmental groups have been critical about possible oil spills in such a biodiverse area. With the Amazon and the second largest rare earth reserves on the table, Sunday's vote is one to watch.