Ethiopian gains in Tigray risk wider war with Eritrea, analyst warns
Oct 16, 2026
Video Summary
AI GeneratedEthiopian military advances in northern Tigray and the appointment of an interim government have heightened tensions with Eritrea. While the TPLF has lost major towns, analysts warn that the conflict persists in rural areas and that the proximity of Ethiopian and Eritrean forces increases the risk of a direct interstate war.
Ethiopia's military advances in northern Tigray
do not spell an end to the conflict
but have the potential to increase
the risk of war with neighbouring Eritrea,
an analyst with knowledge of the region has warned.
On Friday, Ethiopia appointed an interim government to run Tigray.
The government advances
into northern Tigray definitely increase the chances of a war
with Eritrea. I mean,
now the Ethiopian forces and the Eritrean forces are located very close
together, albeit probably either side of their border.
I think the Eritreans' entry into Tigray
and then their reversal
and going back to the border suggests that they wanted to support
the Tigrayan forces. But as the federal forces
pushed up north through Tigray, they decided
actually that they didn't want to engage the government
at this point in time. What we don't know
now is whether the Ethiopian government will
decide that it needs to take action
against the Eritreans and possibly cross the border
into Eritrea to
fight its forces there. Taylor recalled
that Tigrayan forces had regrouped
in rural areas after losing
towns during the previous war
warning that further fighting
could bring more destruction and disruption.
I think it's important to remember
that during the last war
the Tigrayans, the TPLF
also exited the main towns
or pushed out of many of the main towns
but then experienced
a resurgence in the rural areas
so we shouldn't imagine that this
conflict is completely over
just because the TPLF has
lost Mekelle, there's potentially
quite a lot of
fighting, quite a lot of
destruction and
disruption to Tigray
that will continue
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of sending troops across the border
and occupying Ethiopian territory.
Eritrea has denied supporting the TPLF
and condemned Ethiopia's assertion
that it was taking self-defense measures as a declaration of war.

