CREA again revises down 2026 home sales projection

After four months of modest momentum, many of Canada's housing markets took a step back in September. Home sales and average prices were down, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. CBC senior business reporter Philippe de Montigny joins us now. He's been taking a look at the numbers. Okay, break it down for us. Well, home sales have been down about 7.7% in September. That's year over year. Drawn down largely by Canada's two largest markets, Toronto and Vancouver. Prices also came in lower in September, averaging just over $666,000. That's down 1.6% compared to the same month last year. We'll take a look at this graph. The red line on this graph shows the national average. National home prices have flatlined, coming down from a small uptick earlier this year with fixed mortgage rates creeping up. Even smaller markets are cooling off. Here's CREA's senior economist. The weak Ontario and BC and sellers markets everywhere else in the country. And what we've been seeing over the last six months are so those sellers markets are finally starting to top out to lose steam. That's, you know, your Saskatchewan, your Manitoba, Quebec, the East Coast. After years of, you know, double digit price gains. We know that these numbers are closely looked at, But so are also the interest rate numbers. So how is the uncertainty on that front factoring into what we're seeing here? Well, markets are betting on a few rate hikes coming perhaps in the next few months, certainly next year, likely not at the next Bank of Canada decision on October 28th, but perhaps as early as December. And that could keep prospective homebuyers on the sidelines even longer. I chatted about this with the CEO of one of the largest real estate companies in Canada. He says the uncertainty around the trade war, around geopolitics has shaken consumer confidence and it's a balancing act for the central bank who wants to obviously keep inflation in check while supporting Canada's economy. Have a listen. There are inflationary pressures driven predominantly by wars abroad and those are a reality. But we also have the economic threats coming from the bombastic trade policies out of Washington. Now, Korea has also revised its forecast downward. It's still expecting some positive growth in home sales and prices. Next year, it says most provincial markets could see gains between 3% and 6%, while the national average home price is forecast to climb 1.2% to nearly $670,000. Okay, thank you for breaking it down for us. That is CBC senior business reporter Philippe de Montigny.