Winter Is Coming: What The IMF Just Told Investors

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Topics covered in this video:

IMF outlook: persistent supply-driven inflation, energy shock impact, and growing social and fiscal pressure

Energy picture: Hormuz largely shut since spring, Saudi East-West pipeline disruption, Brent crude holding $100-$105

Rates and the dollar: Fed rate increase on September 16 to 3.75% to 4%, with further tightening expected

Volatility driver: why higher real yields pressure non-yielding assets in the near term

Evidence of broader demand: Standard Chartered notes gold's negative correlation with 2- and 5-year real yields weakened to -16% and -22%, gold-backed ETFs took in $18 billion in August to reach 4,189 tonnes, COMEX net long positions rose 39% to 753 tonnes

Fiscal picture: US federal debt crossed $40 trillion in August, with debt servicing costs projected to exceed military spending, plus expanded Treasury buybacks for liquidity support

US resilience vs fiscal risk: solid growth, resilient spending, and flash composite PMI at 58.4, alongside rising borrowing costs for governments