Time To Start Getting REALLY Bullish? | Tom McClellan
Premiered 7 hours ago Thoughtful Money (with Adam Taggart)
LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/confe...
Technical analyst Tom McClellan is poised to become "bullish as all get out"
Why?
For starters, the third year of a Presidential administration, on average, tends to the best of the four year cycle. And the party usually starts a few weeks before the midterm elections (i.e., very soon)
Second, many of the factors that have been areas of concern for him seem to be approaching their end. So he expects the markets to have fewer headwinds ahead.
Which is why he's watching the tape closely over the coming week or two, looking for the "game on" indicator to get really bullish.
For all the details and charts why, watch this video.
#technicalanalysis #midtermelections #marketrally
0:00 - The character of this market vs prior cycles
2:32 - The presidential cycle and the “Rapunzel” chart
4:51 - The pre-midterm bottoming window
7:39 - Why the election result matters less than certainty
8:10 Does today’s strength steal from year three?
9:45 The decennial pattern and the year-seven effect
11:22 Why “year seven” is not just astrology
12:43 Advance-decline line and the 10% drawdown study
15:31 High-yield bond breadth: the main caution
20:33 Record margin debt
22:01 The seven-year cycle points toward 2028
24:27 QE5 and the quieter balance-sheet slope under Warsh
26:15 Why QE has historically been bearish for bonds
28:04 Oil and Treasury yields moving together
29:10 Gold’s 20-month lead on interest rates
32:42 Gold’s 20-month lead on crude oil
37:02 What oil commercials are signaling in the COT data
41:24 How the McClellan Oscillator was built in 1969
45:38 Why he expects to be “bullish as all get out”
49:09 2028: when margin debt, oil, and yields are due to crest
56:35 New Harbor’s takeaways from Tom’s charts
1:04:29 Where New Harbor disagrees: high-quality bonds
1:10:23 Why cycle averages hide lost-decade risk
1:15:09 Today’s Fed hike, the next hike odds, and the market reaction
_____________________________________________
Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.
We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.
We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.
All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.
Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosure
Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreement
IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.
Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.
A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.
Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
Chapters
View all
Explore the podcast
Thoughtful Money (with Adam Taggart)
692 episodes
Thoughtful Money (with Adam Taggart)
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
Podcasts
Transcript
Follow along using the transcript.
Show transcript
Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
189K subscribers
Videos
About