Midterm SHOCK as Polls Flip and GOP Sounds the Alarm

Well, we are now in the final sprint here, less than 50 days to go until the midterms and things are really starting to heat up, including the polling kind of taking a shift here in just the last few hours and joining me to talk about that and more CBN chief political. Analysts, David Brody and CBN white house correspondent, Kelly, right. Gentlemen, thank you so much for being here. Let's start off with how the polls have kind of been favoring Democrats a little bit, but now in the last few hours, we've seen a surge and then even on other indicators, like the Nate Silvers of the world who have these models and things that they run, even the prediction markets, where you can get some information there on what people are thinking. In just the last few hours, they've all surged towards Democrats. David, I'll start with you. What do you make of this? Well, when you have the vice president in Kansas this week, that's not a good sign if you're the Republicans. Why is that? Because Kansas, believe it or not, is in play for Democrats. Yes. Red state, Kansas in play where they could actually win that Senate seat. Roger, Roger Marshall's indeed in some trouble. So there is that Iowa is a toss up in the Senate race as well. Uh, that's been obviously training Republican has been Republican for a while. So when you look at that situation and you see that the president is going to be in North Carolina on Wednesday, Kelly, I'm sure you can speak to that. Uh, the fact that Roy Cooper is doing well down there against Michael Watley, the Republican candidate, uh, it just doesn't bode well, uh, for the Republicans. It is a, uh, it's going to be a heavy lift for Republicans to not only keep control of the house, but possibly even to win the Senate at this point, things seem to be turning in the Democrats, uh, seem to be going the Democrats way. We'll see. Uh, of course they have to keep those seats in Michigan. Uh, the Ella side against, uh, Mike Rogers in Michigan. And then of course you've got, uh, some of the other seats that they've got to keep as well. Uh, the one in Georgia with John Ossoff. So, uh, it's tough sledding ahead for Republicans for sure. And because ultimately what is it back to James Carville in the nineties, it's the economy stupid. And that's where it begins and ends. Well, you mentioned the economy, David, and, you know, Kelly, obviously that's gotta be a big concern for, you know, the white house thinking about that and how they've been trying to navigate this situation. And then as it pertains to Republicans, what, uh, what do you make of that? And, uh, kind of the polls that we talked about as well. So I think they've been made a very clear point about what's happening in the polls about the Democrats gaining momentum. And, uh, when you look at things from the perspective of the president, United States and the white house, the Republican party, the president has always stated that he doesn't believe affordability is a factor and he's tried to do things to show that, uh, the administration has been focused on the economy, but one thing you cannot exchange and that is the elephant that's in the room and that's the conflict with Iran and how that has, uh, really plummeted, uh, the president's aspirations to have a strong, vibrant economy that resonates with the American people when the American people are pulling up to the gas pump and they're saying, oh my goodness, you know, how much more is this going to rise and raise my gas prices when you have people reaching into their pockets saying, I don't know if I have enough to pay for gas to get to work. Will I have to take on an extra job to get to work? How much is this going to cost us? And then the fact that, uh, the president, uh, is still not stating enough about the war with Iran and making that known to the American people so they can understand why there is some pain at the pump, not to mention you add in the Houthi rebels. So now you have a two pronged, uh, situation developing where you have the Suez canal being choked off at two different points. Those two different points can only add to the pressures of the economic, uh, strength of the United States and certainly to the economic strength or weakness thereof of the voters. The voters will be thinking about that when they go to vote. Now, I will tell you this. I spoke with Ralph Reed, who of course is the president founder of faith and freedom. He attended that historic GOP midterm convention in Dallas last week. And he said, Kelly, look, you know, uh, the polls might be showing one thing, but on the ground, we're starting a round movement now that we're into, uh, 50, 49 days left of this, uh, midterm election, he says, this is the most pivotal midterm election for Christian voters than any time that he can recall. He wanted to say that his ground game is getting activated and they will be knocking on doors of some 10 million people, just as they did in the previous, uh, presidential election. And he said, this is different. At first he thought the midterm. Uh, convention was, uh, he wasn't going to go, but he went there and he realized that this was very good. It, uh, ignited, uh, the people who attended that. And as a result of that, those people are going to be shot. Now the polls have not taken that into account. So I would say that, uh, this might be premature to say that the have a full run towards, uh, ownership of the house and the Senate, uh, wait, because I think, uh, a lot of people are going to show up at the polls, according to Ralph Reed and, uh, his assessment of what took place last week during that historic, uh, GOP midterm convention. First time it's ever happened. Yeah. And David, I mean, we talk about, you know, Kelly's talking about some of these races maybe coming around. Like, I mean, you think about places like Texas and James Tallarico. Who's now polling ahead of Ken Paxton. I, and that's the sort of race that Republicans are looking at. Like this should in historically for them should be sort of a lock, right? And now they're sweating these polls. And then, uh, in, in other areas like Abdul El-Sayed with his sort of more radical leftist type views against Mike Rogers, that one's close, but El-Sayed's ahead, are these races, do you think Republicans are kind of saying, all right, like to what Kelly was saying, that just calm down, everyone, people will come out and, and Texas will be Texas and America will be America. But what, what are, uh, what are your, what's your sense on that? Well, there's the public and the private posture, right? I mean, publicly, they're going to say it's all right. It's Texas. We'll get there. And, and Ken Paxton will win privately. There's a lot more fretting. And why is that? Well, in Texas, uh, look, Ken Paxton's not a good candidate. That's the bottom line. Let's put aside all the baggage. Actually, we can't put aside all the baggage, can we? He's got a lot of baggage that he's carrying around, uh, from indictments to, uh, certain, well, let's just say it, extramarital affairs and all of that from a morality standpoint. And then you throw on top of that, that he's just not the best campaigner in the world. Not really charismatic. And don't take my word for it. President Trump was the one that said that about Ken Paxton. So look, he's not a great candidate is the bottom line. Uh, Talarico as much as people like to call him Talarico. And as much as people like to say, you're taking the Bible, not only out of context, you're being sacrilegious. The truth of the matter is, uh, he, he knows how to play the game and he's done very, very well as it relates to relating to kind of like that independent voter. So you put all that together. And I think Texas is a real problem spot for Republicans. Uh, and then you move to Michigan and El Sayed is capitalizing on that socialist DSA, uh, traction and movement and energy. Now he's not officially socialist, but wink, wink, got it. Sure. He's not. Okay. And then there's Peggy Flanagan out in Minnesota, who also is that wink, wink, uh, not a socialist, but she sure, uh, acts and votes like it. Uh, so there seems to be a movement there. And of course you've got other places around the country. So you put it all together. Uh, Republicans are concerned, but there are 21 house races overall, 21 that are going to be toss ups. The problem for Republicans is that 16 of those 21 are, are, uh, seats that they have to hold. They're in Republican hands. Now that is a heavy climb, but good news for Republicans. There is any good news. And there's a few nuggets of good news. The fundraising that Republicans have compared to the Democrats. I mean, they're walloping them. It's over 130 million or so that they have in the bank. Talking about the Republican national committee compared to the DNC, the Democrats that have about 14, 15 million. So it is a, an astounding advantage. Number one, number two, uh, and, and this is interesting as well. When it comes to redistricting, we've heard so much about redistricting. Think of it this way. Think of it like a sporting event and your team is up five, nothing to begin the lead. Just spot the other team of five, nothing lead. That's kind of what the Republicans have right now, because when you take all of the redistricting around the country, roughly, it looks like Republicans, it's going to help them by about five seats or so. So think of them as having a five seat advantage. But they can only lose four seats. It's still going to be uphill climb, but they at least got more than a puncher shot. They got a, they got a shot. It was keeping the house. Yeah. And Kelly, you know, you brought up the war earlier and I, I think that's one of the issues that we're seeing, I think probably more so than we've seen in past big elections, a divide on the Republican side of things where they're arguing. They're not just having little squabbles over which candidate might have a better chance to win. I feel like there's a real actual serious debate going on inside the GOP of how they want to go forward and who they want their leaders to be. So that's a big divide that's unfolding. I think AI is another issue. We saw the president kind of essentially defend, you know, one of those things called the, the cooling centers, the data centers, the data centers. Yeah. Forgot the term there for a second, but, but he kind of came out when a lot of people have been criticizing those on the right. So there's this big divide going on, Kelly, and, uh, how are Republicans dealing with that in leadership? So look, we, we can, we can talk about all the math and the math doesn't add up, uh, in terms of what the Republicans will have to hold on to, they will have to have some, uh, uh, I guess some miracle passes thrown, like, uh, Hail on Mary passes thrown, uh, to make the TD, the touchdowns for, uh, November 3rd so that they can win and hold on to the house and Senate majority. But, uh, it does appear from the math that one of those is going to go and most likely the house, uh, the Senate will likely hold on to, um, uh, their majority, but the bottom line is it's what's happening in the atmosphere. Uh, it's what's happening in terms of the data centers. This was happening with AI. It's what's happening with, uh, Iran, the Houthi rebels over, uh, over, uh, over there in Yemen attacking Saudi, uh, uh, oil, uh, the president reaching out to, uh, a lot of Americans, the landscape saying, Hey, can you no longer strike the diesel fuel areas, uh, in Russia? Uh, so a lot of people were scratching their heads on that were Republicans as well as, uh, uh, with Democrats are, are always scratching your heads when it comes to the president. But, uh, but even, uh, Republicans just say, wait a minute now that's, that's our strongest ally in that region. If you, if Ukraine, uh, goes and, and really settles for what you're asking for Mr. President, that puts them in a hard place. And then what happens with us in Russia? There's, there's just so much going on right now that, that is plaguing. Um, the admin, the administration, as well as the Republicans going in to try to win this, uh, this, this, this entire important midterm. And then what happens if they don't win or they lose their majority? What does that do for the next two years of this presidency? And some of the, what are the programs that he has initiated? Uh, so that's a question that has to be asked as well, as we look at the midterms, what happens on midterm night and then beyond what happens to the country, which way will it go knowing full well that the Democrat party has leaned so heavily to the left that there is definitely a Marxist, uh, agenda afoot. And, and that will cause a lot of problems should they, uh, have the opportunity to win the house. It will cause a lot of problems, uh, for this president and the administration and America. Um, Dan, a couple of things to just play off of what Kelly was talking about. We, we know this as political observers, uh, and ones that watch this stuff closely that elections are one of the margins, uh, and beyond that, uh, it's not about the happy voter turning out that that doesn't move the needle. What moves the needle is the angry voter, uh, the, the voter that's frustrated with the status quo. So you put all of that together and you've got an economy, obviously that we've talked about already. Uh, that's a problem for this administration. And here's the other problem. This is the nickel and dime aspect of the analysis, if you will, which is if elections are one of the margins, you need everybody marching together and all hands on deck. The problem here for the Trump administration is you've got the Iran war, which is going to take the Tucker Carlson and the MTGs and the Tom Massey, that type of voter, uh, they're not going to be motivated to get out and vote. All right. Call it 3%, 5%, 7%. Choose your percentage. It's low, but it's there and it's real. And if elections are one of the margins, that's a big deal. You throw in Epstein, look, we can go back to the Epstein files. There are some folks in MAGA that that was a red line that Trump, um, crossed that, uh, on Epstein and that's another, what call it 1%, 3%, whatever you want to say, you add that, you trickle that. That might be a subset as well of the Tucker Carlson crowd, but it matters. Uh, and then you have the AI data processing centers. Uh, look, I think this is a huge issue. I remember that you have a populist revolt. Forget the left for a moment. Let's talk about the right. You have a populist revolt on the right. They are not happy with these AI data processing centers. And you've got the president of the United States, their leader, the MAGA leader saying he's got not only no problem with it, you're a conspiracy theorist if you're for them, or excuse me, if you're against them. So look, I just think there's too much here, uh, to ignore, to say that the Republicans are not in trouble. We know they're in trouble and that's some of the data points to prove it. And one of the other things to add real quickly to, to what David is talking about, where we find ourselves in, in the middle of, uh, of a political firestorm in terms of what's happened on the midterms, but it's also a cultural war that's going on. There's good and evil. There's left and right. There's, there's confusion and doubt within, uh, the party of the president. And some are saying, where's the leadership from the Republican party to say, Mr. President, let's come together and speak and address what's going on. Uh, other than a two hour speech that was given last week saying, Hey, if you win, uh, we'll give you $5,000. Uh, and, and then having people talk about that rather than talking about what's really at stake in this, uh, midterm election. And how does the Trump administration hold on to its agenda for what it wants to do for America, America first, the golden age of America. People aren't feeling so golden when the oil prices are so high that they're, that is stripping them of a lot of gold out of their pockets to pay for. Yeah. I mean, it's really a hard, it's really hard to make a case. If you are the party in power and then things are very much difficult for the average American. It's very hard to essentially make the cases. Don't believe your lying eyes that things are tough out there. Uh, and listen, I think one of the groups that helped usher president Trump into a second term was young men. And I think you're seeing, I kind of your point, Kelly, a lot of them are saying, wait a minute, you promised us no new wars. And so for all of the things that president Trump can say, yeah, we did this, this, and this. There is also a checklist of things that many on the right feel like, Hey, you, you said no new wars. We're going into that. You said the gas prices were coming down. They're still, you know, for something, depending on where you're at, they're still pretty expensive. So, uh, are you, do you guys get the sense that they're aware, uh, of this sort of consternation that is, I think they're aware, but they haven't got out. They have been able to get out in front of it. Um, look, look, I want to be very clear. The assassination of Charlie Kirk really took a lot out of, uh, out of America, out of the country and out of, uh, this administration. Uh, so without his presence there, uh, there's no one to fill that vacuum to say to the young men of America, uh, hold on, hold on, let's keep our wits about us and stand strong. I will tell you this, that I, a lot of these young people, these young men who voted for the president. Uh, may turn around and do it again because they just can't stomach or what the far left is doing on the Democrat side. Again, there's a culture war in that circle as well. That there are a lot of these young men are saying, don't trans me. I don't tell me that I've got to put, uh, a trans man into the WNBA. Don't, don't, don't come at me with that. Come to me and respect me for being a man who wants to grow up, contribute to my country, contribute to my family, make sure that all the ends are meeting and that I have a personal economy sustained by a national economy that is dominant in a global economy. Oh, and by the way, don't take my faith or my religion away from me. Uh, and, and that's what they're saying to the left. So some of those men who are not polling, by the way, uh, they will likely show up again saying I'm going to pick the lesser of two, uh, problems. And the, the one I'm going to choose is, is the administration and the party that will take me to the promised land and not to a land of confusion. Yeah. David, before you go real quick. And I just want to say, that's a great point about bringing up Charlie because you saw the reaction after president Trump was elected for the second time, Charlie Kirk played not just like a role in going out and talking on these campuses, but he was organizing and fundraising. So this was a very much a key player, if not the key player behind the scenes in the ground game for Republicans. And he's not there now as organization is, but the leader is not there, but sorry, I just wanted to put that in there. Uh, go ahead, David. No great points by both of you. And the word is it's a V word void. There's a void, uh, and that is going to be a problem when it comes to organizationally on the ground in these midterms to Kelly's point about young men, yeah, I think some of them will show up, but that's the key word. Some. I don't think the majority, or when I say a super majority of them will, or all of them will that showed up for Trump. Why? Because even though Trump says he's on the ballot, dot, dot, dot wink, wink. Hey, hey, he's not, he's not on the ballot. And so as much as they want to say he's on the ballot and I get why they're doing it, uh, even though he's got a approval rating, the mid thirties, but for the young men subset that you need, you got to say he's on the ballot, but he's not on the ballot. It's a midterm election. And that's a reality that, uh, Republicans are going to have to understand, you know, JD Vance, uh, probably said it best than anybody could have said it, which is like, and he said this to, uh, folks at the convention there in Dallas, where he said, look, you might disagree with us on this issue, this issue, and this issue issue. And I hear you. As a matter of fact, he spoke to the young men of America, specifically addressing them and say, I got it. We hear you. We understand you might not agree with us in some of this, but listen, overall writ large, if you will. What are you going to do? Can you vote for socialists? Please don't do that. I mean, if you think we're not that hot vote for the lesser of two evils, I'm not quite sure that's going to sell, but that's probably their best play at this point for disaffected young men. I'll just say one final thing about young men. Uh, you know, it is about the Iran war to a degree for sure. They want no new wars. They don't want any getting bogged down in the middle East. So there's that, you know, when Lindsey Graham was alive, president Trump was running around BFFs with Lindsey Graham, that is, that is persona non grata to the young men. Uh, vote. They don't like the quote neocon crowd. Uh, and president Trump is still hanging out, so to speak, uh, with the neocons and kind of embracing them to a degree. Uh, that's a problem. Then you've got the, uh, AI data processing centers that we've talked about, which they are totally against. Uh, and yet you've got president Trump embracing Silicon Valley, which is once again, young men are going, wait, what? See, see president Trump is starting to embrace the establishment on all of this and they are anti-establishment. And that is a big, uh, a big, uh, fissure, if you will, within the movement and with, uh, regarding president Trump and MAGA. Yeah, absolutely. Gentlemen, we're going to have to leave it there, but I appreciate your insights. And we are 49 days away from a huge midterm CBN's David Brody and Kelly. Right. Gentlemen, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Thank you.