Liam Lawson's made himself VERY HARD to drop

Liam Lawson just got another go in a Red Bull. And there's also a kid in F2 who can make Red Bull very happy or very stressful right now. So Monza could be a test of Red Bull's patience, whether or not it turns out to be a masterstroke or a missed opportunity. Well, that's what we're going to talk about today. And it all starts with Nikola Solov in Formula 2. Red Bull's next in line, apparently. And should Solov win the title, FIA rules force him out of Formula 2 without being quote-unquote ready for Formula 1. And then we have Liam Lawson, of course, who is currently ninth in the championship with 49 points to his name and yet no public deal regarding 2027. Same goes for his teammate Arvid Lindblad. And with Hajar now out of action for the Italian Grand Prix as well and no proper confirmation as to whether or not he'll be there for Madrid next week, we now have Liam Lawson equaling the two races that he partook in the senior team that he was doing last year. But this year, it's going way better than then. And I think what might happen around the Italian Grand Prix could decide something within Red Bull as to whether or not it's even worth promoting anybody next year or changing anything up. There are two different auditions going on right now in Formula 1 with this team and neither Liam or Nikola will be in a racing bulls in which to do it. That honour's going to Yuki Tsunoda, of course. And Hajar does remain very important to this particular story because even though he said that the recovery is very encouraging and that there is no more swelling with his injured wrist, Red Bull have elected to err on the side of caution and bench him for the Italian Grand Prix. And they made the announcement two days after Isaac said that he was hopeful he would be back in time for Monza. Yeah, this is a very different Red Bull, isn't it? They are clearly not willing to give it a go with the Frenchman. The team had seen progress and according to Sky Sports, medical staff involved with Hajar's recovery believes that he might return to Madrid. And considering that the F3 drivers who tested at the Madrins circuit the other day believed that it was like the Cornish circuit Jeddah on steroids, would they really want to take a risk Red Bull in thrusting him into a brand new circuit? But one thing is for sure, Lawson's Red Bull appearance is only temporary. But temporary doesn't mean irrelevant. His first weekend back produced his first points for the senior team but it wasn't flawless though. Remember, he did receive a 10-second penalty for a yellow flag impringement but at least he didn't lose any points because of it Sure, many of us were really disappointed that we didn't get to see a proper comparison between himself and Max Verstappen throughout a whole race distance. All we got was most of a singular lap where admittedly, it was looking pretty spicy. There was a lot of near wheel-to-wheel combat between those two and qualifying was really spicy. You remember how Hermot Marcos said that anything less than three tenths behind Max Verstappen would be sufficient? Well, in qualifying, try just over a tenth behind Verstappen. And also, you do have to give Lawson credit for learning an unfamiliar car in a really truncated amount of time. And now, Monza gives him a second weekend to be able to undertake all the learnings he had around Zandvoort something that he described as a very useful reference and who knows what he might be able to do. And there's more. He also completed an additional 608 kilometers of testing around Mugello the other day around about 110 laps of it or so in the RV22. Lovely. And now, Monza changes the examination up a bit. Much different to the Dutch circuit because the first chicane as well as Ascari they are obvious places to watch whether or not Lawson's confident in the car now. But my stance hasn't changed. He is not gunning for Hajar's seat next year. It could be very valuable learning for Red Bull as to whether or not it might be wise to dump him for next year or maybe just retain his services within the fold for another year to maybe allow certain genius to really come to life and really know the Formula 1 car and also, for Lawson, might give him a little bit of a leg up in the 2028 driver market. Who knows? It's all valuable material within the F1 world to anyone to witness. And don't worry. I am not just going to be limiting Liam's potential to two weekends in an RV22 because if he did so, he'd be completely glazing over everything else he's been doing throughout this entire season. And thanks to his services as well as Arvid's, racing bulls now sit fifth place in the constructors. For many who are au fait with the Fianza outfit, fifth place in the constructors is the thing that they have been dreaming of for 20 years at this point. Yeah, the rookie limblads keeping Liam honest in the quali and race head-to-heads, but Lawson is doing his job in guiding the team to success and succeeding Williams in the best of the wrist mantle. And I'm quite certain that if they do it, Vcarb would at least want to try and do it again one more time. Right now, the only vulnerability I see comes from the purpose of the team. After a brief spell in 2024 with their change up in their identity where they didn't really know what they wanted to be, the team has now gotten back to its roots. A good season can easily secure your place at most teams, but here at Racing Bulls, where the mantra is to try and bring up the talent within the Red Bull fold, having one seat locked out to a relative veteran driver when you consider it, you know, like we had with Gasly, it does make you a bit of an obstacle towards all of the juniors below you and their final step toward Formula One, something they have been dreaming of ever since they got in a go-kart. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Right now, because he is so goddamn good, he is so goddamn inconvenient for this team. And Lawson getting another shot will be really useful in trying to show what he is capable of as a complete driver now. And Lawson getting another shot at the senior team will provide plenty of evidence as well to show whether or not he is truly adaptable in moving from one operation to another. Yes, these are two teams within the same group, but they do operate considerably differently and also they'll get to see how Liam copes with a proper lead-in procedure to a race weekend instead of it being a sudden, oh, um, you're up now, go, go, go, go! And if it pulls itself off with another points finish or at least not embarrassing himself, it could make the idea for the Red Bull group of continuity look really, really attractive. But I'm not saying it won't grant immunity from the queue behind him though. May I remind you, Big Bombaclat is coming and as Permain said, he is next in line. His words, not mine. Like Liam, Nicola was busy last week too, covering 690 kilometres in the V-Carbo 2, last year's car around Imola, with Permain saying that he adapted quickly and showed the composure expected from somebody driving an F1 car for the first time. He too will be a monster contesting two arenas, one is to defend his F2 championship lead and the other to strengthen Red Bull's confidence in his development. The Imola test going smoothly now, giving the group just cause to maybe ask some tougher questions regarding whether or not he is worthy of an F1 seat. But that F2 glory, doing something that no other Red Bull junior has been able to do in this generation of Formula 2 does come with a caveat. As I have said many times and you might be aware of as well, the F2 sporting regulation forbids anyone who has won the F2 title to come back the following year and go for back-to-back wins. That's not the point of this particular junior category. The intent is that you move on to a grander series. The rules don't guarantee you one of those seats anyway and as junior programs have shown us many, many times before and the growing trend right now of continuity amongst the elite drivers at the top teams, realistically, the timing around the junior programs is absolutely critical. With Berman facing an unlikely future at Ferrari and maybe having to look elsewhere, the timing of Camara arriving in Formula 1 might provide him the opportunity to partner with Leclerc in the future, not Berman. A driver could complete the objective of winning the championship and receive no interest from any Formula 1 team or academy whatsoever. May I remind you of the example of Leo Fornaroli? But with five rounds to go and a 20-point lead, Solov does have the advantage but not the guarantee of accomplishing something no other Red Bull driver has done. But winning would force Red Bull to choose a new environment for him. That could be a Formula 1 seat like how they thrust Limblad into one for this year but there's always a year of testing, simulator work and FP1 appearances to consider as well. It all depends on whether Red Bull believes Solov requires experience or just merely an opening for him to just slot right in and learn on the job. We do also have to consider Limblad's own development because before he got the ticket to go to Formula 1 for 2026, he did partake in multiple FP1 sessions whereas as of now, Solov has not done a single FP1 session. In fact, he is now only just, I think, on the right to even be considered for an FP1 session. But given Red Bull's history, it wouldn't be surprising me if he does get a ticket for the final Grand Prix. That means, you know, they fill in the junior FP1 mandate. But GPBlog's own reporting does supply us with at least one possible answer because according to them, Lawson and Limblad, amongst many sources within VCARB, are the likely lineup for 2027 after all, with Solov taking on the role as the Red Bull reserve driver. But let's be clear, one FP1 session wouldn't recreate a Grand Prix weekend. The team would probably give him a job to do within that hour so that would benefit the existing incumbent drivers. I mean, just look at all of the stuff that Fred Vesti had to do for Mercedes as their reserve. Him only recently getting the opportunity to actually properly push the car. They wouldn't allow Nikola to push the car willy-nilly just like with Fred. However, it could show him current race life procedures and let him get to know the race engineers. And more TPC running as well could build his mileage even more, just like what Mercedes did with Antonelli and look what he's been able to do ever since. And all of that without placing him on the grid for next year. And then of course the simulator work, that could be very good experience between events and in fact, when it comes to preparation for the Grand Prix itself after FP2, many teams partake in simulator work through the night and Solov could be really important in all of that. And it does give you a little bit of a stamp on the race car as well. So if Red Bull decided to keep Lawson in the V-Carb seat for at least one more year, this wouldn't mean that they are completely ditching Solov or anything like that. He would still be very important to their efforts for next year. And of course, there would be the benefit of him being even more experienced in F1 machinery without the distraction of other championships to consider. And it means that by the time he does get into Formula 1 for 2028, next to Lindblad most likely, he will be more than ready. He'll have had thousands of kilometres in a Formula 1 car. It'll almost be just like water of a duck's back in the way by the time he gets to the first race of the year. And of course, the benefit for Lawson is obvious. Every extra and harder question Red Bull wants answered about Solov becomes an argument against rushing his promotion. Those two large test totals answer very different questions. The one from Mugello and Imola. Because it's important to clarify that the Mugello run, that was for the benefit of Pirelli, F1's tyre supplier, them testing out compounds for next year. Lap times there, completely irrelevant for this discussion. But it's still time Liam got in current machinery and with current engineers. All valuable study time behind closed doors and away from the media. No pressure there at all. No eyes of millions on it. You're there on Pirelli's dime. And also regarding Solov's test, it was in a previous car, the 2025 car, I believe. Any time that Solov got in that car will not prove that he is ready for driving these versions of cars that we see today. The purpose of that test was to ensure that he could be considered for F2-1 sessions, as well as understanding what it takes to beat in any sort of Formula 1 machinery. Him having not done so before in real life. As well as, of course, the physical tolerance regarding all of that mileage. Because if my estimates are correct, 690 kilometres means about roughly 140 laps around Imola. That's going to make any F2 driver absolutely exhausted. But hey, it helps that the boss was pleased with him. That's cool. So that means these tests weren't enough to make a decision, Law? Well, yeah, but that's what I'm trying to say. And also, that wasn't the point of them. I think only when he does a couple of more tests and partake in a proper session, and then the young driver test at the end of the year, will we get a better idea of his potential as of now. All of this, in my mind, supports the art of patience. I am just seeing the traditional line of succession. Red Bull look at Solov and go, hey, we want him in Formula 1 eventually. They put him in a Formula 1 car. The boss then pats him on the head saying, good boy, Solov, you did really well. Didn't he do well, everyone? And oh, he'll be in next in line, that's for sure. We are just seeing things go by the book here. Nothing is really standing out at me and going, hang on a minute, I believe Mikula could maybe jump the queue here. All we know right now is that he will be in Formula 1 eventually. But next year though, I mean, this could be just succession planning at his finest. And in a way, as it should be. Because right now, V-Carver is in such a good position in the constructors that they don't need to find a brand new driver. And the upgrades that V-Carver have been bringing, they've been consistently good. And now they have got two drivers who are consistently getting solid Q3 positions and points relatively consistently. Which contrasts with what Arvid's situation was, where they sort of had to rush him in because he did look like he could have gone for the F2 title, but then he had a bit of a slump, which meant that he only had a decent F2 campaign, much like how Antonelli had a decent F2 campaign of his own. Then you've also got to consider how bad Prema adapted the brand new F2 car at the time. But either way, Helmut Marko, in one of his last decisions, most likely, made the call to put Arvid in Formula 1 right before he himself was ousted. Based on the decision with Hajar and what they might be doing in the solo, I do think a more slow and steady tactic within Red Bull is likely and could be sustained when Gren Le Grou does eventually take over the reins for the Red Bull junior team. And all of that, I think, improves the case of keeping Lawson rather than damaging any of it. His results and the amount Red Bull still needs to learn about the Bulgarian already prove that for me. Yeah, Solov winning the F2 title would make things less comfortable for Liam, and a champion who's adapted quickly may not need a whole year of control preparation in which to prove himself ready for the big time, as would an impressive FP1 session or two or three. At that point, perhaps keeping him out of F1 would serve to protect the current lineup more than Nikola's development. You know, to ensure that Liam or Arvid aren't just looking over their shoulders and that gets them down to their core in terms of nerves, and then their performance is compromised. But eventually, Red Bull will have to promote him. They can't escape that fact because if they did, Nikola, well, it'd be just wasted talent. And Lawson's dependability, in a way, could make things a little bit more tricky for Red Bull because yes, he is a known factor. He could easily bring points every single time you might need it or solid qualification results. But at the same time, the only way that you will know for sure if Nikola Solov is ready to race or not is to, well, put him in a race. And let's not forget Limblad in all of this because in terms of the quality and race head-to-head, it's really, really close between them. And this is only Arvid's first year in Formula 1. He's only 18 and he's doing this. So that's all very well and good, but then the foam of doubt for me comes back in again in that yes, this is a really impressive rookie year for the young Brit, but does that necessarily mean that in his second year of Formula 1 that he is ready to lead a team and then have Nikola Solov be right there next to him also a young man? Could the heated hearts of youngsters get the better of them and then maybe impact Vicar because we're already seeing Arvid and Liam butt heads in terms of team orders and them going really toe-to-toe, Max at one point calling them morons for it. Do they really want to have that tempestuous and really, really testosterone-filled youth cloud the potential for points? No. Right now, with Liam in charge, it might be kept in check just about enough to convert that fifth place. So maybe it might be best to wait one more year when Arvid's in his third season and he's closer to that 50th Grand Prix start marker. And it's also important to point out that but Lindblad and Lawson, their seats for next year haven't been confirmed yet. Because yes, the new Red Bull practices patience and caution far more often than in the previous era, but if Nikola proves to be dynamite in the remaining F2 races and in TPP testing and in sessions, then that might give Red Bull a case of itchy feet. Could they afford to have him out of competitive racing entirely for next year? I mean, you could argue Super Formula could be a reasonable distraction, but it would be just that, a distraction. Either way, Monza will be a place for Liam and Nikola to be able to manifest plenty of evidence to back up their respective cases. But having said that, you can't properly compare Lawson and Verstappen on the Friday because Max is indeed sitting out FP1 to allow the reserve driver Ayumuwa Wassa to go. So that makes any comparison in FP2 a little bit dirty because it's a little bit, you know, skewed. The only way we can properly compare the two drivers is in qualifying, much like we did for the Dutch Grand Prix. For the main qualifying, again, Liam Lawson was only 0.115 seconds behind the Dutchman, the four-time world champion. So the test for Lawson will instead be to do with execution. Can he reach Q3 again and manage the heavy braking zones of Monza? And of course, keep his race clean. No brushes of the law with the stewards this time around, although admittedly last time it didn't really impact his points results, but it wasn't a clean break that weekend, was it? And note how I've not said once that he has to match Max Verstappen or beat Max Verstappen. That's not the point. Nor is he gunning for a senior seat next year. The only thing to watch regarding Liam's short-term future is the language coming out of the team's higher-ups. Do they discuss only Hajar's recovery? Or do they describe Lawson's contribution across both weekends solely? Could another solid weekend cause the team to maybe defer Isak's return again? I reiterate my point from earlier that that Madrid circuit does look very, very punishing. And yes, Isak's had another week in which to recover, and he does feel really good about his prospects of returning. But if we get a similar situation in the first couple of years of the Corniche circuit, where we saw some really high-profile accidents, like with Mick Schumacher, him being ruled out for the race itself, would Red Bull, this new Red Bull, do something that bold? No. Just put him in the car one more time, and then by the time we get to Baku, the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, two weeks after Madrid, Isak will be absolutely fighting fit. And another reason why I think they probably might do this, or why they should do this, is that, well, let's be real. Max isn't going for the World Championship this year, nor are Red Bull going to be seeking anything higher in the constructors than their current fourth place. There's nothing to chase for, so why chase Isak back into the car then? No. The best thing to do for them, if Liam Lawson's last year with Red Bull is 2027, then just give him one more opportunity at a front-running team to show what he can do, so that any other team out there that may want his services might go, oh, you know what, I haven't considered Liam before, so, okay, let's get his people on the line. Yeah, they might not have thought that this time last year, but now though, I'm pretty sure his management are getting a few more calls. And yes, the lasting question is pretty much what happens at the end of the season anyway, because Lawson does have a defensible record now, and Monsa could add further evidence that his usefulness is very important right now for Red Bull or any future team that he works with. Meanwhile, Solov has public support from management, an F2 lead, and finally, some time in an F1 car. But winning in F2 shouldn't be the signal Red Bull's looking for in whether to promote him or not really. These days, in my opinion, the only people who want Liam Lawson out of Formula 1 now are the haters from 2024 who simply can't let what happened that year go, although he is a completely changed man at this point. Yes, he himself admits that he made some really stupid calls in terms of judgment and the way he projected himself, but aren't people allowed to change and try and make amends for what they did in the past? But the case of Lawson now, he is so much different from what he was in 2024. Yes, I know he wronged your boy back in the day, but he's not doing that anymore. In any case, Red Bull could leave Monza even more convinced in both of those drivers, but I think that might make the decision they might have to make eventually harder, not easier. But I think your case to stay up the ladder is definitely easier because all it takes is just, you know, click that button right there. I'll just go ahead and freshen myself up and I'll be right with you.