Why Liam Lawson's Red Bull Success May Not Be Enough _ LawVS

Liam Lawson has scored 14 points in three races for Red Bull, and somehow that might make his future more complicated rather than less. When he got his plumb, I asked whether this version of Red Bull could create an opportunity without creating another loser, and so far, rather encouragingly, yes. Hajol hasn't been shoved back into the car, and Norris Lawson been thrown into another two-race judgement session. And all the while, Yuki Tsunoda has been filling in the slot downstairs at V-Carb, and no one's career has had to be sacrificed with it. Job done. Except with Liam Lawson's three-race tally currently, we might have encountered another problem. Because Red Bull can treat you fairly and still keep you waiting. Because while Liam Lawson has been delivering for the senior team, Isaac Hajol has already proven the sporting reason for him to remain at the senior team. And all the while, the Grand Pouvoir Max Versapen has only gone and extended his own deal through 2030. So if Liam did get another race to go around the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in the senior team colours, that doesn't mean that he is going to get more evidence to prove that he's worthy of a promotion. Because I said time and time again, this is not about a promotion. He is being the team's super sub, and a driver that this team can depend on. But that's the thing. He might end up being the driver that Red Bull constantly reminds just to keep his mobile phone on in case they need to give him a call. That's all nice and all to have that connection with the senior team, but is that really going to do your prospects of having a long-term career in Formula One any good? Because when Hajol's fit and ready to race again, that's it for Liam Lawson at Red Bull. Back to Vcarb for you. Thanks very much for your help. And that is the driver politics worth examining right now. Not whether Liam's doing a good job, because, well, he is. But what will that actually get him? Because there's a world of difference between having work next year and having a believable route towards the job you really want. But first though, Hajol. He's now missed three Grand Prix with the wrist injury he sustained during the summer break. And after three races, you can understand why people are starting to look a little bit suspiciously at something that initially was treated as relatively minor. But thankfully for Red Bull fans, Lauren Mekies has been very clear about where the current situation is right now. There has been no major setback in the mix, folks. There's no complications being had with his injury, and nor is there any grand conspiracy. And that they will be assessing him again in the simulator in time for Baku. The beginning of the first of three triple headers. Man, it's gonna be insane. But until he is near 100% fitness, he will not be getting back in the actual racing path. So, in that light, good. There's no case of, oh, Red Bull are just being a little bit dawdling to allow Liam Lawson more time to thrive at the senior team, because he's delivering just as well, seemingly, as Isaac is. Because even before Liam was confirmed to be taking up Isaac's seat, Mekies was encouraging caution in terms of bringing Isaac back into the fray. Because just look at what's happened with Lance Stroll since he was rushed back in for the beginning of 2023, after he sustained a pre-season biking injury. Bouncy, wancy medical experiments they put on him. Yeah, it managed to rush him back into the car. But I think it's quite safe to say that, since then, Lance hasn't really had a smooth time of it regarding his wrist. Remember last year, when it was really complicating him and all of those ruminations about that? I don't think he's fully ever gotten over that. I don't think Lauren would want to have the same thing happen to his boy. And it's also been to see what Liam can do in a senior car. And so far, both missions have proven to be rather successful in their eyes. I mean, for Liam, it's a case of double figures in terms of pointage. That's great. 14 points in three races. Not too shabby. And Mechie's praise after the Spanish Grand Prix, in accordance with Lawson, is really, really handy here, because it focuses on very important things, such as calmness and stability, as well as adaptation to unfamiliar machinery. And considering there were only four overtakes during the Madring Grand Prix, and Liam was one of them, being able to drag that car from eighth place to sixth, two places. And yes, you might be going, well, Lewis retiring was one of them. But that's besides the point. He, Liam, alone made up 25% of the overtakes of that race. And Mechie's also suggested more time in the car could unlock even greater refinement. And if you contrast that with what I've talked about regarding Oscar Piastri earlier this week, Liam adapting this fast to such a tricky car could be really, really impressive and cast the Australian at a different light. But let's not get bogged down here regarding Oscar, because Red Bull's assessment of their man sounds like they've got somebody they trust wholeheartedly. Not, as some may be clamouring for, an excuse to boot Hajar out, though. And after the Spanish Grand Prix, I think it might be time to stop using the word audition so casually anyway. I mean, sure, every single weekend for a Formula One driver is an audition of sorts. An audition usually implies there is a job waiting for you at the end of it all, whereas realistically, at Red Bull, there really isn't one at the moment, because, as I mentioned earlier in the month, Isaac and Max, in Lauren's point of view, are the ideal pairing. So what vacancy are we actually talking about here? And Max, he's looking pretty comfortable after getting that contract extension, as is evidenced in with his extracurricular activities, such as Max vs 100. A driver who's heading for the exit wouldn't be up to that kind of chicanery. I mean, heck, not even Racing Bulls has confirmed their lineup for 2027, so that might go some way to prove that Liam Lawson is useful for something and that he deserves something, but not necessarily the something that he wants from the team. Awkward, wouldn't you say? And we don't even have to think about the comparison on the timing screens as well, because do you remember that particularly hot take that Max Verstappen had the other day regarding adaptation and the like? Because yes, it was a criticism of this year's cars, but he used the quick adaptation of recent teammates like Liam and Yuki as examples of how little differentiation he believes the machinery allows. And while he acknowledged drivers still need commitment and good laps to get the best out of their machines, there's still an interesting consequence for Lawson. If adapting quickly is easier under these regulations and adapting quickly, it becomes a weaker selling point by itself. Can he produce complete weekends rather than simply competent ones? Enter Madrid. There, he qualified 8th, while Max qualified 3rd. Yes, you might be thinking, 3rd and 8th, that's quite a big difference, but in terms of the stopwatch, it was only about 3 and a bit tenths or so. That's not too bad. And while that's all well and good, he has been closer, remember, around the Dutch Grand Prix? He was only just over a tenth behind Max Verstappen. It's certainly very impressive and very handy for the team, but it's also inconsistent because then you get Monza, and he was six tenths behind the likes of Max. Not helped also by the fact of the impeding with Oscar Piastri. I mean, it does certainly help his case that Liam did admit that him being impacted by qualifying and qualifying in a low position did impede what he was capable of during qualifying, because at the end of the day, he finished nearly a lap down from the leaders and his own teammates. Overtaking and traffic and track conditions, yeah, they don't really give you much help if you are further down the order. If you're near the top, then you're absolutely great, but Liam wasn't on this occasion. Yet nevertheless, he did rise up the order anyway. Because that rather ambitious move on Colo Pinto and the virtual safety car, they did play their part in his overall weekend. But the broader point remains. Saturday gave him more work to do than necessary, which gives us a much better test for next time, I think, if there is one. Could we reach Zandvoort levels of impressiveness without that yellow flag infringement? If so, that would be real development right there. Not simply him collecting another, let's be real, likely P6. And just to make Liam's current existence even sillier, he was back at a racing bull four days after that Madrid Grand Prix for a test. Yes, admittedly, this was a Pirelli tyre test, and his teammate Arvid Lindblad was also performing during those two days, but it just goes to show what kind of position that that New Zealander has within the organisation. He is the mercenary of Red Bull. You point him somewhere and says that contributes to your paycheck, and then he will go into battle for you. He's useful at the top of the ladder. He's useful down at the bottom of the ladder. He's useful bloody everywhere, which is all fine and dandy until you remember the question we were asking at the top of the video. Useful where? And this is where Big Bombaclat comes back into the picture once again. You might remember from the last time we talked about Solov that he was riding high, having the most wins within a single season of F2 for a good long while since the days of Leclerc and Russell. Madrid, that was a rubbish weekend, and I was right there to witness it. Not only was the sprint race absolutely rubbish with him spinning and then falling down the order scoring nothing, but then the feature race came along and there he also scored nothing. The gap between first and second now, Solov and Camara, is down to seven points, and based on the fact that we are going to be getting two feature races around Baku, it could be the championship decider. And I think what we saw around Madrid from Solov slightly cools the idea that Red Bull has some unstoppable champion in their midst that they have to get into F1 and then purge Liam Lawson from the organisation to do so. Solov has still got work to do, and that I think strengthens something I argued before the Italian Grand Prix, the fact that Red Bull doesn't need to rush any of this. And perhaps that's the biggest organisational change we've been watching across these videos, and since the old guard of Christian Horner and Helmut Marko were given their marching orders. Because under them, Red Bull's problem was impatience. Because two bad races with them in charge destroyed Liam Lawson's career, and even though he's had a fantastic start to 2026 with the junior team, it's only been in the last few races with a more high-profile team such as Red Bull, which is the place which destroyed his career, arguably, where he's been able to actually reform his career. And even to some of those naysayers regarding Liam, people are looking to him and going, hey, that kid's not so bad, you know? I mean, not to Checo fans or Alonso fans, I don't think he can ever sway them, but I think this new era of Red Bull has provided something really handy for him that unlike the previous generation, the old guard of Red Bull, this Red Bull under Lauren Mechies is more willing to collect a little bit more evidence first before they make any big calls and the like, to do with Liam and also to do with bringing back Hadjar. That's a much healthier way of going about things, I reckon, but it's not without its own consequences. Suppose they ultimately decide that Hadjar deserves another year with the senior team. Okay, fair enough. Then suppose the idea that Liam Lawson gets another year at Racing Bulls to ensure their highest prize ever of fifth place in the Constructors. Also fair enough. Then suppose the idea that Nikola Solov spends an entire year developing himself behind the scenes, save for a few FP1 sessions here and again, because the team believes that he's not ready for the big time yet, especially if he ends up fumbling the F2 title. Again, fair enough. It still leaves Lawson incredibly frustrated in he doesn't really know where his career is headed right now, even with these logical decisions. That's why his dependability might be one of his biggest cruxes right now. Red Bull find him really, really convenient, but there's no real place for him at the top team at the moment. I mean, that could easily change if Max does decide to leave and call it a day after 2027, but right now, given the real amiable nature between himself and Red Bull right now, that's not likely. For the top bots at Red Bull, it's great. Need somebody to replace Hadjar? Liam can do it. Need somebody experienced beside Lindblad? Liam can do that too. Need somebody who understands both teams? You get my drift? Now, that's not to say going back to Vcarb is some kind of punishment or anything like that. It's not, because regular F1 racing of any kind is better than having no regular F1 driving because it keeps you within the loop of the Formula 1 paddock. Even if you are driving an absolute box like the Aston Martin or the Williams of this year, you are still within the world of Formula 1. And if Liam got the ticket for Vcarb in 2027, not only would he have himself a very competent car, very much worthy of being the top of the midfield, but he would also have yet another season to be able to build upon a very, very solid 2026 campaign where he drove for both Red Bull teams. In terms of his long-term prospects, it's all looking really, really good right now if there is an opportunity coming his way somewhere else. And we should apply that same fairness to Hadjar because in the midst of recency bias and us all looking at Liam and going, wow, he's doing a handy job, it's very understandable that some may suddenly look back to Hadjar and think, oh, he's a fraud. Does he really deserve that seat next to Max? Because look at what Liam's doing right now. I don't really like that train of thought because you've really got to remember the streak that Isaac had after his own race that was horrible, the Miami Grand Prix. Since then, he had been able to secure top six finishes throughout every single Grand Prix, which for Red Bull this season, missing three races due to an injury doesn't delete any of that. It shouldn't. If Hadjar's back for Baku, then it's not like Lawson failed or anything. He just did his job being a super sub. That's that. Because there was never any promise, I think, that if Liam did a good job, then that would mean he would get the Red Bull ticket next to Max for 2027. That wasn't the case at all. Red Bull needed somebody with handy experience that they trusted and believed in to fill in the gap to mean that there was some sort of stability and continuity. And considering that Mechies and Alan Permain, the TP of Vicar, believed that he did get a real rough shot and Red Bull, and now they're the monkeys running the zoo, they can make that decision and give him a go. And they did. And it's paying dividends. So to judge Liam against a prize that Red Bull never promised him would be daft in the extreme. All that Liam's done right now is keep Isaac's seat warm. In fact, I think that's the healthiest outcome after what I was musing during my pre-Zandvoort video. Can Red Bull create opportunity whilst not creating another loser at the same time? And right now, encouragingly, yes, they can. Hajar's been allowed to recover in peace while Lawson has received a proper chance to rebuild his career, now with an even larger reach than before. More people noticing than they were down when he was in the midfield. And all the while, Yuki Tsunoda as well has performed the reserve role that Red Bull expected of him and kept him for. Noblies needed to be sacrificed. That's progress. But it still doesn't solve Lawson's problem. Because now, Red Bull needs to decide what all of this new evidence really means and what they do with it. And Max's new contract makes the senior picture less mysterious, really. So to build around the idea that Liam's just waiting for Max to leave, that would be a rather optimistic viewpoint, especially if you are from his own home country. Instead, I think we should be looking somewhere beyond the potential Red Bull vacancies, maybe even into 2028. What might happen to him then? I'm not saying there's some sort of secret deadline, nor do I have a secret deadline that he has to leave the team by the end of next season. I don't. But another year within this team does take him that little bit deeper into his Formula 1 career. And yes, he will be into his prime, and for a good few years. But it then brings up to mind the dubious dilemma of Pierre Gasly circa 2022. Because you remember back then that that was going into his third full season with that team after his demotion from the senior team? And he sort of got into a bit of a crossroads. Was this place really the suitable place for him for the rest of his career as he was starting to get into his late 20s? No. Yeah, he got on brilliantly with the likes of Yuki Tsunoda, although admittedly, it was simply down to the fact that, you know, there was no real contest between Yuki and Pierre in terms of who was number one. But that's for my video for Monday, by the way. His options within Red Bull were so blocked that he decided to put his differences aside with Esteban Ocon, bite that bullet, and just go and be his teammate at Alpine for 2023. That's how bleak it got within the Red Bull organisation for Pierre. He was willing to do a deal with his own personal devil. And at some point, Liam will come to that same conclusion and decide, is staying within this team really the best use of my time? Because Red Bull could value his work enormously as continuity and dependable cover, yet the driver himself could also decide that a stable role elsewhere may offer more than another conditional opportunity inside the same system. And hey, these three races have at least given another employer something new to chew over. To say that no one's been paying attention to what the Kiwi's been up to within the paddock would be ludicrous because everyone in the paddock is paying attention to everything. It may also include Baku, but that's neither here or there right now. This new sample is bigger and more useful than the Australia-China one of 2025. And now, based on new evidence that has come to light and Liam's own reporting, that own two-race synth was very much tainted and very much constrained in what Liam could actually do. He was basically told, Liam, by Helmut, ah yes, you just drive the car and shut up. You don't worry about setup or anything. Just do your job. As in, what could he actually do with this car that wasn't really geared toward him? It was just a guinea pig, that second Red Bull car. But I think maybe even for his biggest haters, they're starting to look at this kid and go like, fine, I guess, and they'll move on to their next target. Because after all of that, he's managed to survive within Formula One. He wasn't chewed up and spat out. He's come out of it all a much more calmer and talented and assured man. You've really got to respect his determination to prove the doubters wrong because he could have easily folded or have been completely kicked to the curb. And he's also a lot more chill because of it because if you look at all of the antics he is more than willing to poke fun at himself and just have a bit of a laugh. This version of Liam, 2026 Liam, I like this version, not the 2024 Liam. And that brings us back to what I think those 14 points for the senior team, maybe so far, have truly accomplished, that it's provided far better evidence surrounding him. Now we know for sure that if you stuck Liam Lawson in the senior Red Bull car, he can produce the goods. Brilliant. But he's not perfect, mind. I think right now there is room for improvement in terms of qualifying, but hey, at the very least he can drag what is often described as the fourth best car into Q3 quite consistently, save for, again, if he gets impeded. But I think there's still more he can show to prove that he can be consistent at a top tier team. There's still work to be had, but this, I think, has gone by much better than what we expected. So for now, I'll be watching three things. First, Hajar's assessment before the triple header begins in Baku. If he's ready, then bring him back. If he's not close to 100% mind, as per Meki's words, then Lawson should continue without us turning that into evidence of some political plot. Second, the lineups for next year at both teams. Hajar's future will tell us whether there's even a senior opening to discuss. Is it a multi-year deal or just for next season with options? Lawson's own future will then tell us whether Red Bull season is still part of the furniture. And third, there's Solo. What Red Bull does with him will tell us all we need to know and how urgently this junior system still needs to create space. But for now, that remains the structural issue here. Red Bull can suddenly become a much fairer and more patient organisation than they were under Horner and Marco, but that still has its own fair share of problems. They have got quite a few drivers within their system near the top that are scrabbling around to show how much value that they have. Because you've also got to consider Arvid Lindblad as well. I've barely touched upon the kid, but I do feel that he too is a little bit of a man in a hurry because Solo's right there. And if they decide this new Red Bull to be more patient and more fair, then if Lawson's bringing the goods more and more often and then Solo's doing the deed in F2, doing something that Arvid wasn't able to do, the last charge of Horner and Marco might find himself looking extremely vulnerable or more vulnerable than he thought this time last year. You've got multiple drivers climbing the ladder of Red Bull and there are very few rungs available. And at one point, one of those drivers is going to have to get off the ladder. See what I did there? So yeah, back around Zandvoort, I was hoping and praying that Red Bull would have not just created another loser like they have done historically. And I, after that Dutch Grand Prix, could breathe a sigh of relief. Good. There is progress. Excellent. Hajar's not been rushed back in and Lawson's had more time to prove himself. He wasn't just a one and done. Lovely. And that is very important because patience is not the only thing Red Bull could be talking about right now. Because in Hajar's case, they're actually choosing the safer option because there is a really good sporting example to get him right back into that car as soon as possible. Because again, top six finishes every race since Miami. He's bringing in the goods so you would want to try and keep it that way. And maybe through even more experience and the bit of a summer break, he could end up turning out to have even more impressive results, having much more time with the RB22. But patience comes with its own foibles at the end of the day as well. Because yes, it's nice to know that you are useful and part of Red Bull's future to some degree. But for those drivers, if the ticket is not really going to either be partnering Max Verstappen or maybe even succeeding Max Verstappen and you're either just going to be holding the fort at the sister team to help bring in the points and train up someone else that can easily take your seat, it does leave you wondering, well, what am I to do now? Do I have to stay here and just be grateful? Or do I just take the plunge like Pierre did and hope for the best? Because keeping your phone on is a really lovely compliment. But it's just that, it's not the guarantee of a job offer. But my guarantee is that there is a video waiting for you right over here. I'll just go and freshen myself up and I'll be right with you over there.