This is the messiest category at the Emmys

why are your television obsessed friends saying that this is the tightest race of the year? well let me explain. the outstanding lead actress in a drama series category contains two people who were nominated in 2025. one in the category, one outside. a person who was nominated and won best picture at the oscars this year. one of the biggest movie stars in the world and then also an actress who was criminally overlooked year after year for a previous show. so who wins? so here's where the mental math starts to happen. the actress who was overlooked in previous years that would be rae seahorne who was nominated for better call Saul twice and she is nominated this year for pluribus. she plays carol sterka. she already has won the golden globe and the critics choice award but but carrie russell who is on her third nomination for the diplomat she won the actor award earlier this year which is voted on by fellow actors. it used to be called the sag awards now it's the actor awards the whole thing. so where does that leave us? well for me it means i need some for everyone else let's talk about who i think will win. i'm ready to say with about 60 confidence that i believe it will be rae seahorne who wins the emmy for outstanding lead actress in a drama series and here's why. i think hollywood knows that they messed up bad with not giving her the right amount of nominations and wins for better call saul and then paired with the fact that she is an unstoppable force in pluribus um and that it is one of the busiest shows of the year. uh i think that it's it's i don't want to say it's in the bag for her 100 but it definitely feels like she's the one to be here. that being said carrie russell is an eight-time nominee who has never once won an emmy and i think with more eyes on season three of the diplomat thanks to bradley whipford's casting which made for a west wing reunion with alice and jannie i think it's very possible that voting members end up swinging in her favor because this most recent season was honestly some of the best television i've watched in years. i tell this to everyone i talk to but the last like 90 seconds of the diplomat season three i couldn't breathe and i think the clearest sign of victory for carrie is that among her peers at the actor awards she was the winner. and one more thing on carrie russell she made her debut in the all-new mickey mouse club at 15. she's been in this industry for 35 years and in projects like felicity, waitress, the americans. so i think it's possible that her fellow actors and other television academy voting members look at her and say the fact that you've been doing this for 35 years and the most significant wins you've had are a actor award earlier this year for the show and then a golden globe for felicity decades ago it could mean that they go and swing for her. so while i feel about 60 confident that it will be ray i do think that 40 is fighting hard for carrie but let us know in the comments who you think it will be who you're reading for and what category we should break down next.