
Mass destruction of Russian ships; Russian Black Sea Fleet is in danger of remaining in Novorossiysk

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The relocation of Russian ships from annexed Crimea to Novorossiysk was intended to protect them from Ukrainian attacks, but strikes on two frigates right at the Novorossiysk port pier demonstrated the vulnerability of this military base and the ships within.
This is stated in a BBC report . It is noted that Russia may attempt to preserve its Black Sea Fleet, and has two options: either take refuge in Tsemes Bay, strengthening its defenses, or seek a new naval base on the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov.
"Neither path seems easy," the publication wrote. Journalists cited data from the OSINT channel Exilenova, which, after analyzing satellite images of Russian ships after the Ukrainian drone strike, concluded that both frigates, the Admiral Makarov and the Admiral Essen, had sustained damage that would prevent them from launching Kalibr missiles at Ukraine.
And the Russian channel "Military Informant" reported that "in the worst-case scenario, the ships will require lengthy dock repairs, which would mean the loss of two modern frigates with a single salvo of 16 cruise missiles for the Black Sea Fleet for an indefinite period."
The publication emphasized that the fact that Ukrainian drones and missiles not only reached the ships but also hit the hatches of the missile launchers demonstrates that Ukraine is capable of planning a highly complex operation and carrying out a strike on Russia's most secure military base on the Black Sea.
Russia had two main naval bases on the Black Sea: Sevastopol was the primary base, Novorossiysk was secondary.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet was forced to abandon this convenient anchorage because it was located too close to mainland Ukraine.
It is noted that Ukraine received high-precision cruise missiles that could destroy ships trapped in Sevastopol's narrow bays and docks, and if they went out to sea, they became prey to unmanned boats.
"The Russians have still not been able to find a way to reliably protect themselves from these threats," the publication stated.
Journalists argue that the decision to shelter the fleet in Novorossiysk, far from Ukraine, seemed sensible. The distance protected them from attacks and provided a chance to spot drones in advance and prepare.
"However, as Ukrainian strike capabilities develop, Tsemes Bay is clearly becoming the same trap as Sevastopol: ships at berth are easily struck from the air, and if they are taken out to sea, they can be hit by unmanned boats," the publication noted.
In this regard, journalists noted that Russia has nowhere else to move its fleet. On the Black Sea, Russia has a maintenance base under construction in Ochamchire, and on the Sea of Azov, ports in Temryuk and Taganrog.
However, there is no infrastructure there for basing a navy comparable to that in Crimea or Novorossiysk, and building one would be long and expensive, the publication emphasized.
A Russian military expert, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the BBC that it is theoretically possible to prepare a navy to counter unmanned naval craft, but this would require placing each ship in a shipyard dock.
"The problem is that the major shipbuilding industry present in the Black Sea is vulnerable, as it's in Kerch and Feodosia, and they're under attack from drones. And the Sevastopol ship repair yard is also under attack. Therefore, anything that can be done, anything that requires major shipyard repairs, is dangerous," he explained.
"There, you need to install a number of new systems on ships, then test them somewhere in a more or less calm environment. And then you can take them into battle and see how much stronger you've become. Therefore, doing this in a region where your shipbuilding and ship repair facilities are under threat of attack is difficult," the expert added.
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