Did Russia Betray Assad? The Real Story Behind Syria's Collapse
Did Russia betray Bashar al-Assad or did Syria misunderstand the nature of its alliance with Moscow?
During my appearance on Jamal Thomas' show, I was asked a question that has divided many people following the Syrian war: Why did Russia ultimately allow Assad's government to fall?
My answer is uncomfortable for everyone involved.
Russia did not enter Syria because of friendship. Moscow had strategic interests, and once Russian and Syrian interests increasingly diverged—particularly over Turkey, Erdogan and the political settlement Russia wanted Damascus to accept—the relationship changed.
But blaming Russia alone misses the larger story.
Syria became dangerously dependent on its allies while failing to adapt to a completely transformed battlefield. Damascus rejected compromises with Turkey, struggled to reach a workable settlement with the Kurdish authorities, and froze the military conflict in Idlib while its opponents consolidated a parallel political, economic and military structure there.
I also explain why I believe the Astana process and the freezing of the Idlib front were crucial strategic mistakes. Once the fighting stopped, Syria remained under devastating sanctions while Idlib continued receiving outside economic, military and political support.
Over time, economic warfare changed Syrian society itself. When people could no longer afford fuel, bread and basic necessities, anger that had once been directed toward armed groups increasingly turned toward Damascus. In my view, Syrian leaders badly underestimated the psychological and political effects of sanctions.
So did Russia betray Assad?
My argument is that “betrayal” is the wrong way to understand relations between states. Russia pursued Russian interests. Iran pursued Iranian interests. Turkey pursued Turkish interests.
The real failure was Syria becoming so dependent on outside powers that changes in their interests could determine Syria's fate.
CHAPTERS:
00:00 Did Russia Betray Syria?
00:49 Allies Are Not Friends
01:36 Russia's Interests vs. Syria's
02:43 Assad Rejects Moscow's Deal
03:45 Why Russia Walked Away
05:52 Iran's Role
06:13 Who Really Failed Syria?
08:47 Syria Became Too Dependent
10:14 Did Iran Also Abandon Assad?
11:59 Why Russia & Iran Pressured Assad
12:46 Assad's Turkey Dilemma
16:10 What Should Assad Have Done?
18:04 Syria's Strategic Mistakes
19:28 The Kurdish Question
21:20 The Idlib Mistake
22:43 Did Astana Doom Assad?
25:33 Why Idlib Was Never Retaken
26:55 Sanctions & Regime Change
28:47 How Economic Warfare Changed Syria
30:02 Jamal's Verdict
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