Stephanie Pomboy: Rising Bond Yields Threaten EVERYTHING
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"Higher for longer" bond yields appear to be heading even higher for even longer than Wall Street expected.
This is the greatest threat to asset prices right now, claims Stephanie Pomboy.
Stephanie returns to offer her latest monthly macro and markets outlook.
To hear it all, watch this video.
#bondyields #marketcorrection #commodities
0:00 – Recuperation progress & Wilhelmina’s recovery
2:43 – Adam’s Glacier National Park trip & 25th anniversary
5:39 – Funny “celebrity recognition” story in the park
7:51 – July’s extreme market moves (NASDAQ, bonds, oil)
8:50 – Market ping-ponging on Iran headlines & strong earnings offset
12:12 – Framing the three big issues: stocks, oil, rates
12:48 – Fred Hickey’s view on AI earnings quality
14:34 – Mark-to-market gains distorting profits (Amazon/Anthropic example)
16:01 – Hyperscalers turning free-cash-flow negative & rising debt costs
17:05 – How much of S&P earnings growth is just accounting
18:20 – Downside risk if AI valuations reverse
20:49 – AI CapEx funding risks & capital constraints
21:12 – Corporate issuance now matching federal borrowing needs
22:36 – Share buybacks fading – companies become net equity issuers
24:28 – Long-end Treasury sell-off & Bank of Japan intervention
25:57 – Why higher-for-longer rates are here to stay
27:30 – Fed’s limited ability to control long-term yields
30:05 – Quiet balance-sheet expansion despite official rhetoric
31:17 – Secular deglobalization pushing rates higher over time
32:25 – Higher inflation/interest rates siphoning liquidity from financial assets
35:08 – Why hard assets & commodities should outperform
37:08 – Next recession deficits & $4 trillion pension underfunding
39:00 – Private equity/credit risks & high likelihood of pension bailouts
44:05 – Social fairness concerns & potential public blowback
52:00 – Can we still grow our way out (with significant pain)?
55:08 – The need for a cleansing of excesses before healthier growth
59:01 – Stephanie’s current portfolio positioning
1:00:36 – Where to follow Stephanie’s work
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