As Tech Trade Falters, Value Stocks Are Breaking Out | David Hay
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There are a multiplying number of reasons to worry that the dominant A.I. trade driving markets looks increasingly vulnerable.
But the solution isn't retreating to a bunker says veteran investor David Hay, former CIO of Evergreen Gavekal.
David expects a major rotation of capital from Big Tech into value stocks. In fact, he thinks it has already started.
A number of value sectors have broken out to the upside, signaling they may have much farther to run now that resistance has been punctured.
To learn where he sees the greatest opportunity right now, watch this video.
#aistocks #commodities #valueinvesting
0:00 – Why David is among the most bullish he’s ever been on oil
4:16 – Physical oil shortages vs. futures market; Hormuz, Red Sea & Ukraine risks
6:42 – “Best energy setup of my career” – oil’s rally from $69 to $93+
7:28 – Taking profits on oil futures; preference for energy equities
7:36 – Shout-out to Rick Rule’s contrarian energy buying
9:02 – Capex reality: 90% spent on maintenance, only 10% on growth; IEA criticism
11:40 – Base-case oil thesis without Iran kinetics
12:23 – Expected oil range ($70–100) and China’s growing influence
14:32 – SPR depletion, refills, and new strategic reserves as bullish drivers
18:14 – Massive short positioning and potential blow-off top risk
21:12 – Futures positioning chart as a reliable contrarian signal
22:08 – EOG Resources as a specific energy equity recommendation
23:08 – Strong bullish case for U.S. natural gas and Europe’s storage crisis
26:03 – Uranium setup looks similar to oil in late June
27:46 – Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRU.U) trading at a double discount
31:02 – Small modular reactors vs. large reactors and U.S. grid constraints
34:48 – AI physical bottlenecks and the “horseshoe nail” risk to the economy
37:00 – Europe gas storage collapse and Australian coal opportunities (Yancoal & New Hope)
39:11 – Google’s circular AI financing and earnings quality concerns
49:06 – Regional bank index breakout and value-stock opportunities
1:03:12 – 30-year Treasury yield breakout and early credit-market warnings
1:09:31 – Japan capital repatriation risk and the undervalued yen
1:16:47 – Precious metals after the early-year blow-off; silver’s recovery case
1:24:39 – Closing message: avoid broad negativity and rotate selectively
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