What's Holding Back Oil Prices Now? | Matt Smith

Oil prices have remained surprisingly resilient despite rising geopolitical risks and concerns about potential supply disruptions. So what is holding oil back?

In this episode of Market Insider, Matt Smith, Director of Commodity Research at Kpler, a firm that tracks global oil flows tanker by tanker, joins us to examine what the data is revealing that oil prices may not be capturing. We discuss the forces keeping oil prices contained, from supply expectations and market positioning to the risks that could reshape the outlook for energy markets.
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02:16 – Strait of Hormuz Oil Risk
04:26 – How Global Supply Adjusts
06:51 – Oil Shortage or Balance?
08:22 – China’s Oil Market Shift
10:55 – Global Refining Pressure
13:40 – Supply Buffers Under Pressure
16:27 – Why Diesel Prices Stay High
18:44 – The Refining Capacity Gap
20:24 – Why Refiners Are Profitable
22:28 – How Much Demand Can Shift
24:08 – Are Oil Stocks Attractive?
26:47 – OPEC’s Changing Role
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𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘷𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘰 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘨𝘶𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘭𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘧𝘭𝘦𝘤𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘔𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵 𝘐𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘦𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭, 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵, 𝘰𝘳 𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘈𝘭𝘸𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘢 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘧𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴. 𝘚𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘤𝘳𝘪𝘱𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘢𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬𝘴.