Matt Vincenzi, golf journalist for LIV Golf, previews The Open Championship at Royal Birkdale

All right. It's the week of the open championship. One of my favorite tournaments, actually it is my favorite term, unless it's not fooling anybody. And I got Matt Vincenzi on who is covered golf seemingly forever. He's been 10 years covering golf for SI in the past and now currently for live golf. Matt, what's going on, man? How are you? What's up, Garrett? Great to see you. I'm pumped for the open. Who wouldn't be? Um, you know what, one thing I want to get straight into this question. What player, if they were to win this open, it's, it's the oldest, it's, it's a, the world renowned event. I think around the world resonates the most, but what player, if they were to win this, maybe it's two, but what, which one player do you think would stand head and shoulders above as the player that would resonate the most worldwide with the Clara jug when there's one to me, it's Tommy Fleetwood. Um, I think the English fans obviously would be over the moon if he was able to win, I think it would be one of the most meaningful wins in the history of the sport and the history of the open, you know, with that said, it's a lot of pressure on Tommy for all those reasons. And he's a guy who's come up short, um, under pressure a lot of times, but I think the best story would be, it would be a Tommy win, you know, Fitz, obviously another Englishman would be great, but for some reason it feels like Tommy would be a little more magical if that were to happen. Yeah. I think when you get into the magic of it, like what resonates with people, obviously the hometown angle, having grown up there in South port, I know it was a huge deal for him 2017 when he played that week, I remember watching him with the fans, the interaction was, was amazing, palpable energy between him and his fans. And he said this week, he wants to win it for the young guys there, the kids that are at South port so they can dream. And I think that's so admirable and that really resonates. But I have to say, I think Justin Rose still takes the cake and blows that out of the water just because there are so many every men out there, people that can relate to Justin Rose, right? It went for the old guys, you know, whether that's you being a dad, yourself, myself being a dad of three, there are so many people worldwide that can kind of realize, you know, relate to a guy that's gone through a career of, you know, getting bounced around, right? He had the, we all hear about the miscut streak. That was huge. But to me, where it resonates the most is that he's said this before to me, life is not a linear path, right? I learned my lessons early on. I was the kind of the chosen player early on, had that moment at Birkdale, but I needed the struggles. The struggle was there for a reason and it had a purpose. And I think so many people who are in the work, the working world or the corporate world will look at the story of Justin Rose. If he were to hoist of Claret Jug, we've seen the documentary chasing forever. That was out all week on Golf Channel. I think that becomes such an identifiable moment for people if they were to see Justin Rose win it. And I think that's, that, that resonates with me. I'm curious what you think. I think it's a, it's a great, great answer. And nothing about that I can disagree with. Also something about Rose, when he's in the mix in one of these big tournaments, he's just so human during it. Like his fist pumps and just reactions. He's so expressive. He wears his heart on his sleeve. I love Justin Rose. That would be an awesome one. A perfect one to see. Um, you know, that probably could have been my answer too. I think Tommy would be great, but you're right. You know, Tommy will have more chances. This might be Rose's coming down to his last, maybe two or three real chances to get one here. Yeah. This late in his career, especially knowing father time being against him age 45. I mean, what he, what he and Adam Scott is doing, you know, Adam Scott right there at the Scottish Open won that almost won that two years ago. And Bobby Mack, one of our, our favorite players knocked him out there at the end by one shot. But still what they're doing is a complete aberration. Don't you think? Oh my God. It's, it's, it's truly incredible. Um, and Scott, you know, Scott, for one thing, he's competed in some of these events, but he really hasn't had a chance to win a major that many times. I mean, 2024 U S open. Oh, sorry. Last year's year. So in 2025, when spawn one, he had a decent chance on Sunday, but never really was in the mix kind of the last four or five holes, Rose has had a few chances that slipped by, you know, the one when, when Xander won the open and the masters, obviously when he lost in the playoff to Rory, he's had so many heartbreaks. It, to me, he feels like he's just such a big game player. He's like a, you know, he gets up for these big ones. He isn't contending all the time. These in these smaller events that might not mean as much, but he's looking to cross a couple of checks off for the rest of his career. And this of course is the biggest one. The other point I wanted to dovetail in on, on Justin Rhodes is that like after his Torrey pines, when the farmer's insurance open the traffic on a lot of the golf websites worldwide was really strong on that Monday and Tuesday, reading the stories of the 45 year old, getting it done, you know, with the young kids, you know what I mean? Like that was a relatable thing. And I think that's, that's a big part of it, right? Like we've already seen what happens in a non-major when Justin Rhodes gets it done, what's going to happen if he always declare it drunk? He resonates with people. Like you said, he really does, but it would be great for the game. It'd be great for him. I'd love to see it. Yeah. Beyond that. I mean, obviously there's the favorites. There's Rory, there's Scottie Scheffler. Is there anything? I know we had the Scottie Scheffler quote last year about a purpose and fulfillment that was huge in terms of how that resonated with golf fans. Um, you know, Rory coming in just could be a second major in, in the same year, kind of dovetail it, or I should say bookend it with his master's win. It's been what, 12 years since he's won an open championship. What do you make of those two favorites? Yeah. So Scottie for me is an interesting one. He's not obviously playing as great as he was, you know, over the last three years, um, right now in the Scottish, he missed the cut for the first time in a very long time. To me, that almost helps him. It feels like the pressure is kind of off for the first time in forever. His, the odds have kind of drifted to a, to a place they haven't been in three and a half years. Uh, the pressure is there's less, there's expectations are less people. Not many people are saying they think Scott is going to win this. Whereas the last 12 majors, he was probably the most popular pick for all these majors. So in a way that missed cut could have helped reset him. Now with that said, do I think it's the perfect week for him to contend for an open? Probably not. Obviously he's a defending champion, so he can do it, but I don't, still don't think that's his bread and butter. I, you know, I think maybe these UF setups are a little better for him. Um, less wind, the better. So I do think that that could play in his favor this week if there's no wind. So Scottie, I would put Scottie above Rory. Rory for me, it's, you know, I know it wasn't a problem in Augusta, but that's kind of a different animal. I just don't know if he's playing enough golf, um, to go and win a major. That's, that's the part that concerns me a little bit, but you know, Rory at an open would never be, would never be shocking. I would put Scottie ahead of him this week, but both are incredibly interesting cases. Yeah. I think what's interesting about Rory is you think about the experience in a final group in an open championship. How much does that matter? You know, we think of Adam Scott, we talked about earlier, him being in that final group, uh, when he had that chance to win in 2012, right. And didn't get it done. But how critical is that? I think about Victor Hovland being paired with Rory in 2022 in that final group at St. Andrews at the home of golf. And so I want to kind of go next to a Hovland and what he's done recently, of course, a playoff win. Um, I know he's one of your, your four picks for this week. We were talking off camera, but why Victor Hovland for a week like this, the open championship? So I'd consider him the best player who doesn't have a major yet. I do think he has what it takes to win a major. What I love most about Victor Hovland is like you said, he has tasted that final group. He also was, I believe in the final group at Oak Hill in 2023 at the PGA, uh, with Brooks Koepka and. He's a guy, if he gets a sniff of lead, he's not afraid of anybody. And, you know, I, I also picked him for the travelers and I was, you know, going into that Sunday, I said, there's a lot of players who I would be worried about with Scotty in the final group, Victor Hovland is not one of them. Um, he might not have his best every single time he plays, but when he does have his best, he's not going to back down from a Scotty Sheffler. We started the BMW when he beat him, um, when he won the FedEx cup a few years back. So Victor, I mean, he has the talent, he has the skill it's about, you know, matching that with the mental ability to stay focused and all those things. When, when it all clicks for him, he's as good as anybody. He's not as good as everybody as often as maybe a Scotty or Rory, but when he's at his best, you know, that's what you're looking for in an outright pick and a major, a guy who, if he has it that week, he can beat anybody and he does have it. His approach numbers have been great. He's finally saying he's comfortable with his swing. Whereas the past two years, it feels like he's always been tinkering. Now he's actually saying out loud how comfortable he is, which to me is an incredible sign. Also the last four winners of the open had all come between, I think, eighth and 15th at the Scottish Open, something like that, right in that sweet spot, you don't want them contending, but you don't want them well off the pace either, and Victor fits right in the middle of that, um, same as Cam Smith and Xander and Harmon had a good week at the Scottish, did everything you wanted him to see, but didn't spend any emotional energy contending. I think it's all sets up perfectly for him to have a chance to win this week. I'm going to go, uh, almost like a draft here. So you, you got your first pick out there. One of your four picks in Hoblin, I'm going to go Russell Henley as my kind of counter to you. I just love the steady Eddie. Everybody wants to talk about, he's a bulldog, just like Brian Harmon, all these cliches. Well, no, no, no cliches apply to Russell Henley. He is his own guy. When, when, when he brings to the table, obviously winning colonial, that was just a month and a half ago. Um, storming to that win, right? Must make birdies in the last two holes to force a playoff on what does he do in the first playoff hole makes birdie, uh, under pressure is really showing a different gear, I think this year than he has in the past, like a lot of people see him and think he's okay. Is this quiet, unassuming American? There is so much fire that I think he has and tools of. The trade to go with that third and scrambling this year on the PGA tour. It's gonna be a firm and fast golf course this week. It's going to be baked out like Hoylake was in 2014. Everybody talks about that, that course. I used to say even, even the, the year host before that 2006, when tiger woods one, uh, took down Sergio there dressed up as a canary yellow, remember how just like firm and fast those conditions were. So what I'm getting at with, with Henley is that his ability to scramble is, is. World-class among players on the PGA tour top three, um, fourth and approach from 150, 175 yards. That's going to be a big distance this week based on kind of like the, the overall yardage of the course and what is expected there, I think first in accuracy off the tee, like, okay, a firm and fast week, we already know that's what opens our firm and fast, but if you can hit every fairway or I should say hit the most fairways of any of your peers, man, I just think that's a superpower that comes into play this week when he's already shown his fire under pressure, his ability to deliver when he needs to, to force a playoff, just as recently as a month and a half ago. Um, and he's training in the open championship, a fifth to two years ago at this open in, in Scotland. And then last year, a 10th tie for 10th. He's been in the hunt both times. It wasn't like they were backdoor finishes. He was in that mix and tasted the Sunday pressure, the Sunday heat, which his former college teammate, uh, Harris English loves to talk about. You have to taste that Sunday heat. Um, for getting to the next level. And I think for Russell, I think he's right on the doorstep. How, how would it be a surprise if Russell Henley hoisted a major trophy? Yeah, all those make a lot of sense. And with Henley, yeah, he's an American, but he's of the Americans. He has the most kind of European skillset. He's kind of that, like you said, bulldog. Uh, he's a grinder. He's a great putter, a great short game. He might not be the longest off the tee, but he's very, very accurate, which I think is going to be much more important than the pure power this week. Uh, I actually thought after he won colonial, I was thinking he might win a major this year. He was one of my picks for the U S open. Didn't play very well there. Um, which kind of concerned me a little bit, but yeah, every, everything that he does well, it should be well suited for this week. Uh, wouldn't surprise me that, you know, I liked that colonial. He was showing emotion, which we haven't seen that much for him. He was fist pumping when he was making those putts. Um, and I think, you know, obviously it's a complete different game, but that was firm and fast this week, very premium, uh, at colonial. So I do think there might be a little bit of a angle there. Yeah. To your point about firm and fast. I'm going to go with a snake here. I'm going to go with another pick of mine. Uh, just like that. And Aaron Rye wins on a firm and fast aronomy, right? Under pressure. He separated himself, basically that back nine, it was close among so many players, about seven, eight players. And then he was able to get it done and play really well under pressure. And he's such a good links player. He's won the Scottish open in the past at Renaissance. He beat Tommy Fleetwood. If you think, remember about six years back. So there is so much he can draw on. I think too, as it gets more baked out, as it gets so tricky and extremely fast, it's going to play into the hands of the players who grew up in links courses, the Mats Fitzpatrick's the Aaron Rye's right. The Fleetwoods, the roses, the guys that. They just have it in their blood and they're used to the bounces, right? Some of them bad. Most of them just kind of just uncertain bounces. What you're going to get, especially a shots gained approach. Like so many people would think that that's going to be a big stat this week, but it's not going to be the same landing areas that we see every week and week out on the PGA tour and on live golf. So I like what we see out of Aaron Rye. How did he back up to the very next major? How did he back up the way he played with that? When it want to make her use 11th or at the bat in one of the toughest tests that you see all year at the U S open. So I really like what Aaron Rye brings. And here's what you think. Yeah, I'm, I'm impressed by, like you said, I think the hardest thing after one of the majors to get yourself kind of re-energized and refocused and remotivated, like Rory McIlroy said, you climb that mountain a lot of times guys are going to exhale. So the fact that he continued to play well right after that is obviously a good sign to me. It's just all the on paper makes sense, but to win two majors out of three would just be a huge feat. I mean, I would put them in an echelon of a whole different level of player. To me, it seems like it'd be a big ask of him to do, but in terms of golf set skillset wise and the golf course and how he's playing right now, all that makes sense, I just don't see him winning two majors of three. Yeah, I get it. It's a tall ask, but I will say your next on picks. Who do you want to go with next? I want to go with Fitzpatrick and that is a fairly obvious one. But to me it's, you know, sometimes there's good, obvious and bad. I was, when it comes to making picks, I've noticed, you know, the popular guy who's a trendy kind of pick. This one for me is just, there's nothing trendy about it. It's just right in front of your face. He's the guy who's playing the best. This type of golf course suits him well. He grew up in England. The way he wants to attack a golf course is what he'll have the opportunity to do this week. He gained 10 strokes and approach to the Scottish open. Uh, he lost in a playoff there too. You know, he mentioned, uh, Rye, Rye winning over there and with Fitz, it just feels like he's definitely a two major guy. He has the one, the U S open. This one he's most suited for, and he's yet to win an open championship. He's getting more and more comfortable in these final groups. You know, you can make the argument. He's playing like the best player in the world right now. His last four starts, he finished T 22 at the U S open, but the other three have all been in the top four. Um, so he's just playing incredible golf right now. All the things that you might think are a detriment to him. The distance off of T isn't, isn't great compared to these big, um, bigger hitters, but this week that really won't make too much of a difference. He knows how to, like you said, the different landing areas. He knows how to play links golf as good as anybody. How many DPU world tour wins does he have? It just feels like it's all set up for him to win the major this week. And I was even thinking, you know, sometimes life feels scripted. You could have an England win the world cup and Fitz win the, win the open on the same day. Oh my gosh. Uh, yeah, just, just storybook stuff for some of the young kids growing up in England and of course the diehard sports fans that are out there now, uh, we'll continue to sink and let you go with your, uh, number three pick. So I got Hall, then I got Fitz. My next one is going to be ROM. And this one, I guess is the most, I would say controversial of the four picks, um, people are definitely powered on him with his miscut at the, at the U S open and I, and I get it, you know, I get it for me, this is more value based than, you know, picking anyone to win because he's at 25 to one in some spots, he's a player who I tabbed, you know, in 2018, 2019, if you asked me how many majors he would win, you know, I would, I would say six or seven. I would say half of them would be opens because he is such a good links player. He's so good in the wind. He's so good on the coast. He's won two Irish opens. He knows how to play this type of golf. And I think he's being underestimated because of the U S open. When you look, look at it, it was really just a five or six hole stretch where he made a couple of bad mistakes and it shot him out of it. He did finish second at the PGA and the major before that. So I think because of live connection, um, you know, that people are maybe quicker to dismiss his, his shortcomings, um, at times, and sometimes it's fair. Sometimes it might not be. And right now it is fair to doubt him because I said it about Rory. I got to say about Rom too. He hasn't been playing that much golf. And I think it's tough to win a major when you, when you're not playing that much golf. Um, so I think the Scottish open last week was a great warmup, but he did start slow. I did like that his worst day of the week was on Thursday and he got progressively better. So I think value wise, the number, if you sign me up for the next 10 open championships and I can have John Rom at 20 plus to one in each of those 10, I'll sign up for it right now. So let's, let's start in 20, 20. Yeah, I think your point about him just being such a good links player and that being the major that he would win this all said and done, maybe might be his best one in terms of his skillset. I spoke with his caddy, Adam Hayes, and just, it was just a couple of years ago. I said, when is your guy played his best ever golf? He said, yeah, uh, Scott, uh, not Scottish, the Irish open in winning both of those Irish opens. Adam said that that was the best golf that he had seen him played in terms of just under pressure playing well in different conditions, remember it was sideways rain, one of those years at the Irish open. So this is a player who he's European. So he's obviously spent a lot of time on links golf over the years, but he he's won in both types of conditions and links, right? Whether it's a decent weather or whether it's been super bad weather in one of his other wins at the Irish open. That's so critical. I think to a player's confidence to know, okay, whatever the wind comes in or however firm and fast it's going to be, he's got that to rely on. So I like what he does. I don't know. I it's hard not to like Rama his confidence when he is in the hunt too. I think that's a huge factor when, if he's smelling blood, if he's, if he's in that mix late on Sunday, I just love, I mean, look, look how he won a Tory. I know that was five years ago. I get it from the haters are like, Oh, he's not his best player, dude. The way he came out of the pack and Verde the last two holes and took it from Louie and the other guys, there was 10 guys that had a legit shot with four holes to go in that tournament. And John Rahm grabbed it by the throat. He has that gear. Yeah. And you know what I love about him? And this is, it's funny because people use this as a detriment. If you think back to the PGA quail hollow in 25 people say, Oh, he had a chance to win and he choked it. The reality of that one was, and I talked about this all the time, and this is what makes me love John Rahm in these types of situations. He was, he had tied Sheffler, but the thing was Sheffler still had the par five and the drivable par four ahead of him that Rahm had already completed. So in his mind, he was tied, but in his mind, he was too back because he knew Sheffler was going to birdie those two holes, which he did. So he started going at pins, obviously in that one of the most difficult stretches in golf to finish out quail hollow. He's going at, at pins that no one should be going for, but you know what? He didn't care if he finished. Second or 20th, he wanted to win the tournament. And that's what I like about Rahm. He's in the mix. He's not protecting that second or third place. He's going for it. Well, I'll go next with a pick and Patrick Reed to me, like I don't care that he missed the cut in the U S open. That is such a, um, just, just throw the dice kind of tournament for a lot of these players, right? Like he hasn't played great in us opens over the years. That's probably not the best example. What I care about is the fact that he was top 13 in the Scottish open coming off some, some good confidence on links golf courses, and it's the fact that it's firm and fast, Matt is huge for a guy who's a world-class scrambler. And he's been a world-class scrambler from the word go in his career. Since he got on the PGA tour in 2013 and all his time at live, that has been one of his staples. He knows how to get it up and down from a trash can from anywhere. Uh, I don't know what the equivalent would be in the UK. It's just, there, there are so many players that are good at getting up and down, but there's something about the chip on the shoulder, the way that Patrick Reed is able to go. Uh, he thinks he can get up and down from anywhere and that's important. I think also to his form from the first two majors of the year does matter. Um, he, that he can still hang in there, you know, top 12 of the masters top 10 at a firm and fast. I mean, I think it's a matter of time before Patrick Reed wins a Clara jug. I think this is the kind of course, and it would be in conditions like this when it's firm and fast. Yeah. And we've seen him go against those heavy hitters in Europe with the Fleetwoods and the Rory McIlroy's of the world on links courses in Europe on the deep world tour, plenty of times. Um, my concern with him is his open history and his best finishes 10th, but he's had a lot of miscuts mixed in there. Um, but I completely agree with what you said in terms of. If he's in the mix, he's not afraid of anybody either. He's had a great season, you know, another guy who I wish he played a little bit more golf this year. Uh, it's just so few starts and I think it's tough to win majors that way. Um, you know, with that said, I think he's, he's tough. He's can handle the conditions. He's a great Potter, great scrambler. And I think this theme with you this week, you're looking at guys who know how to scramble around these screens. Hmm. And then just to finish off my picks, I know you got one last for you as well. Justin Rose. I mean, he's, he's answered the bell and the biggest championships where, where all the players get together this year, uh, T 11th U S open. I mean, and it's hard to do that, like different types of tests, right? Uh, T 10 of the PGA championship, um, T three at the masters. He, he was the guy with the lead. He was the guy, uh, there, everybody was chasing when he made the turn. Like, so he's been around that pressure. He's tasted at age 45 this year. He hasn't tasted it three years ago. And we're large on that. And now we're, we're drawing on this year at the biggest stage. We know how much he wants the, the claret jug. He's got a, as they showed in chasing forever, uh, this week on that documentary about Justin Rose, that he's got a case on a trophies case set aside for a claret jug, if, should he ever win it, he, he, he's already spoken into existence that, that it could happen, um, 16th in shots gained approach in terms of, uh, difficult course, hard to hit greens. This is one of the best iron players that you can pick. Um, I, I don't know. I love that he won the Scottish open in 2014, um, up North at Royal Aberdeen. I he's a Lynx, he's a Lynx player final, um, you know, one of the, one of the best players, I don't know if it was the final group, but he T2 at this open championship two years ago. I mean, just the crowd was right with them, uh, for, for that one to think about what the crowd, the energy, how palpable that energy would be the last three or four holes. Are you kidding me? Oh man, it would be an amazing story. And, you know, if one of my picks doesn't win, even if, even if including that, I would love to see Rhodes win. No, that would be fantastic. It would be incredible viewing. I remember I was rooting for him very hard, um, two years ago at Troon and, um, I, I would love to see him get it done. And then I'll, I'll give you my last pick and some similarities with the other guys and the guys you've talked about Bob McIntyre, uh, I walked a practice round with him at Shinnecock. And I said, I texted a friend of mine. I said, Bob's starting to figure it out. He's something looks like it's clicking. Um, and he played okay that week, but then he went, went on to finish 10th of the travelers and then, uh, top five at, at the Scottish. So to me, he's rounding in the form. He's one of the best links players in the world, Bob Mack in Europe. I think he's a top seven player in the world. You know, he might not be, uh, you know, in the United States all the time. He's, he's obviously great, but I think he has another gear when you put him in Europe. Um, he's been fantastic in the open was T seven last year in the open, began his career in 2019, 2021 with the T six and a T eight. So he's played six opens. He's been in the top eight, three of those six. Um, obviously he's won the Scottish open. He's just a gamer, put him against anybody. He doesn't care who's, you know, beat Rory in a Scottish open. He had hit some incredible shots down the stretch. He's a guy that you want, you know, to fight for you down the stretch in the back nine of a major. And I think he's going to get one of these. It might be this one. Um, but we'll see. Yeah. I also love the relatability factor of him, right? Just, uh, just the fact that he was clapping for JJ spawn in that moment of, of truth when spawn made the bond and there he was in the clubhouse. That was his reaction. That was his instant gut reaction that he was happy for somebody else to come through. I mean, that, that says a lot about the measure of the man, I think with Bob Mack and, um, it's just, I think it's easy to share for him. I think there's this, there's something about, um, a, he told me at Bayhill last year, he said that this, this is not real life. You know, being on private jets, like a lot of us, this isn't reality, you know, to my friends at home, I'm just the boy, I'm just the Bob from Obon. You know, that, that's just who I am. So the fact that he sees that is fascinating. Yes, absolutely. Absolutely. So I think we covered some good picks in terms of skillset, but I also think some great stories. That's just what makes the open, right? Like what story is going to come out of this week. And I can't wait to see that. Totally, totally, Matt. Well, Hey, great to visit with you. And, uh, we'll catch up again sometime, man. All right. I'll see you soon. Thank you.