Putin's Russia blowback, Dems' midterm green flags & more | Enten roundup

Leaders at the end of the day have to respond to the people in their country. And right now Vladimir Putin is feeling the heat because it's always about the economy, right? And what you're seeing here is, take a look, okay, Russians who say their economy is getting worse or getting better. You know, you look back two years ago, look, the majority of Russians said their economy was getting better. That number has collapsed. Now we're just talking about 27%. Compare that to the percentage of Russians who say that their economy is getting worse. That was just a third two years ago. That is up significantly like a rocket to 60% now, nearly doubling in just the past two years. This war and, of course, all of the sanctions that go with it have had a tremendous impact on Russia's economy. And you can see it here. The people inside of Russia are not liking the way that the economy is going. And for the first time that we've really seen in recent memory, the pessimism is sky high. This is a terrible number for any leader anywhere. That is an awful number of people clearly dissatisfied. I do want to ask you about what's happening inside of Ukraine and knowing that the president, President Trump, is going to meet with NATO allies. He is on the way to Turkey to do that. How much sway does he have with the Ukrainian public? Yeah, OK. So, you know, it takes two to tango or three in this case, the U.S., Russia and Ukraine. And you can see the domestic picture here in Russia is not particularly good. Of course, what Trump is hoping is that, you know, he can put his finger on Volodymyr Zelensky and, you know, pressure him. But there, the domestic picture is very different because take a look here. Look at look at this number. Look at this number. Net approval of U.S. Sarah is whistling because this has been a dramatic, a huge, a huge shift. You know, when Joe Biden was president back in twenty twenty four, U.S. leadership was on the positive side of the ledger plus three points. Look at how this number has absolutely fallen through the floor to now negative seventy two points. That is a seventy five point switcheroo in the wrong direction. So, you know, look, Trump is going to try and pressure Zelensky to make a deal in the same way he'll try and pressure Putin to make a deal. But Zelensky be like, hey, I'm not going to feel any pressure from my folks if Trump is putting pressure on me because my folks just don't trust U.S. leadership. Right. And there's a reason for that. Some of the comments that Trump has made, some of the niceties with Russia and yelling at the president while they are in war has been a real problem for the Ukrainian people. I do want to ask you about, you know, this war has been going on now for more than four years and a lot of people thought even U.S. intelligence thought that it was going to be Russia taking over within days. The Ukrainians have managed to fight and fight and fight in a way no one thought was possible, including Russia. So how do Americans feel about the war itself? They do have no confidence in Donald Trump to handle this war. Take a look here. U.S. trust on Trump on the Russia Ukraine war. Look at this Overall, it's fallen from 45 percent back when Trump was on the campaign trail to just 32 percent now. And look, among Republicans, it was 81 percent two years ago. It is now just 60 percent. Now, Trump comes in to any negotiations in a weakened state, given the domestic feelings in Russia and Ukraine and the domestic feelings here in the United States as well. We're about halfway through the primary season so far, and this is perhaps the best sign for Democrats, because when people are going out there to vote, they're voting Democrat to a historic degree. Take a look here. Dem share of the primary votes cast. You know, right now we're talking about 57 percent. My goodness gracious. That is up 10 points from 2022 when Democrats were casting just 47 percent of the primary ballots. Republicans were casting the majority. And this 57 percent is actually higher, higher than what Democrats were casting back in 2018 when, of course, they went back to the House of Representatives, when it's 54 percent. This is a historically strong position for Democrats. The energy is on the Democratic side of the aisle. This was a big year for Democrats. Huge year for Democrats. And the percentage this year, even higher. Yeah. Okay. I call this next graph of the Enton special here. What happens when one party is turning up in bigger numbers than the other in the midterms? You know, there are two Enton specials. One is Popeyes, followed by Carvel. The other is this slide. And take a look here. Okay. National primary turnout edge by party. Them went on to win the U.S. House in the midterm. Look at this. Every single cycle since 2006, Dems had the primary edge. They took back the House. 2010, GOP had the primary edge. They took back the House. 2014, GOP had the primary edge. They held on to the House. 2018, Dems had the primary edge in terms of votes cast. They went back to take back the House. And in 2022, the GOP had the edge in primary votes cast, and they went back to take back the House. When your side comes out and votes more in the primary, it forecasts very good fortunes come the fall in midterm elections. When more of you turn out, you take back the House or hold on to the House. All right. And we're seeing some sort of signs of the impact this is already having in some of the key states we're looking at. You know, if Democrats want to take back the United States Senate, they're going to have to win in states that Donald Trump won in 2024. But they may get a key boost in turnout. So, in the six key GOP-held Senate seats we spoke about them last week, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, Trump's 2024 margin, on average in those states, he won it by eight. But according to the Times, in terms of likely general election voters, his edge is actually only going to be half that, four points. So, this turnout energy that we're seeing in the primary will likely, at least it's forecasted to, in fact, hold towards the fall and make those red states a little bit more pink than red. They're starting, Democrats are, further along in the race than they were before in terms of turnout there. All right, Harry. In terms of the House of Representatives, what are the prediction markets saying at this point? Yeah. So, Democrats took a little bit of a hit after those SCOTUS decisions right back in May. Their low point was 73 percent on May 17th. But look at where we are now. Democrats' chances have, in fact, have risen significantly, up much closer, if not past 80 percent at this point. So, what we're seeing is that enthusiasm that the Democrats have look like it's going to hold towards the fall as well. I would argue the Democratic version of it is a new Tea Party, but it's on steroids. Why do I say that? Well, let's just start off with the fact, approve of their own party in Congress. Republicans in July of 2010, it was 52 percent, a very low percentage, but at least it was north of 50 percent. Look at where we are now with Democrats in terms of them approving their own members of Congress. It's actually below 50 percent. Democrats dislike their party more than Republicans did during the Tea Party wave of 2010. Just 47 percent of Democrats now approve of their own party in Congress. As I said, it's a new Tea Party, but it's a Tea Party on steroids. And we're seeing the impact it's having on some Democratic incumbents. Absolutely the case. You know, if you look at the number of Democratic incumbents, House incumbents who have gone down to defeat, it's actually higher in the House than it was back in 2010. House incumbents who went, who lost primaries for Republicans back in 2010, it was one, two. You can count it on one hand. But in 2026 so far, it's already five. It's already five. You have to use up all the digits on your one hand. It's five so far. Even if you include Lisa Murkowski going down to defeat in a 2010 Senate primary, of course, she then went on to win as a right-hand candidate in the fall. And you include the Senate. That only gets you to three. Still, we're dealing with more defeats right now in Congress for Democrats, those Democratic incumbents than you even saw during the Tea Party wave for Republicans back in 2010. And the prediction markets think it might get even worse. It could get even worse. In fact, it's likely to get even worse. So if you look at the Calhoun prediction market and the chance that six House Democrats go down to defeat, lose their primary in 2026, this number has consistently over the last week or so been hovering 80, 90 percent. And when we talk about history books, if in fact six House Democrats went down to defeat in 2026, it would be by far, it would be the largest number, be the largest number in a post-redistricting cycle for Democrats. And get this, over 50 years. That's why I got this picture of the Tea Party on your screen right now, because you know what? It's 250, but also it's a new Tea Party for Democrats. I was just in Boston. I saw where this all took place. All right. And we're talking about some of the specific races where incumbents might be in trouble. Yeah. I mean, there are a number of races where they might be in trouble. How about Missouri 1, right? There's a possibility. How about a Michigan 13? That's a real possibility in terms of a House Democrat going down to defeat. And then in Connecticut 1 as well, another real possibility. And this is just what we've been seeing over and over and over again. We have been seeing that these incumbents have been going down to defeat, and it looks like there are going to be plenty more, at least if you listen to the Calhoun prediction markets, where people put their money where their mouths are.