War in the skies changes: Ukrainian Gripen fighters with Meteor missiles, destroy Russian Su-34s
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The transfer of Swedish Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine , along with long-range Meteor air-to-air missiles, could be a crucial step in strengthening the Ukrainian Air Force. This combination could, for the first time, pose a real threat to Russian Su-34 bombers, which regularly launch guided bombs against Ukrainian cities and troop positions. This is the conclusion reached by Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the British think tank RUSI, in his article on Calibre Defence .
The expert recalled that on June 30, Ukraine announced a contract with Saab for the supply of 16 new Gripen E fighter jets. Furthermore, as a temporary solution, Sweden will provide Ukraine with an additional 16 Gripen C/D fighter jets as part of its military aid, with deliveries scheduled to begin in early 2027.
But, as Bronk noted, the most important thing is that on July 1, during a press conference in Kyiv, Swedish Defense Minister Poul Johnson also confirmed the transfer of long-range Meteor air-to-air missiles along with the aircraft. "The transfer of Gripen C/Ds with Meteor missiles has long been considered the best Western fighter option for the Ukrainian Air Force. Specifically, this aircraft is relatively easy to maintain and operate, even from unprepared airfields. At the same time, Meteor missiles allow the Ukrainian Air Force to intercept Russian Su-34 Fullback fighter-bombers, which drop hundreds of guided bombs monthly," the article states. According to the analyst, the F-16 fighter fleet, which Ukraine has been operating since the summer of 2024, has proven more successful than many predicted, based on the number of air strikes and survivability on the ground and in the air:
"Ukrainian F-16s have already shot down thousands of Geran-2/3 attack drones and Gerbera decoy drones, as well as hundreds of Kh-101, Kalibr, and 9M728 cruise missiles. They also regularly strike Russian military positions and facilities near the front line with guided bombs."
However, as noted, F-16s have not yet been able to shoot down Su-34s. The main problem with current Ukrainian F-16s, like the Mirage 2000-5, according to him, is that Su-34s typically drop their bombs approximately 60-70 kilometers from the front line, at high altitude and speed, after which they immediately turn around and return to base.
"To attack such targets, Ukrainian fighters are forced to approach Russian positions, entering the range of long-range air defense systems such as the S-400, and also risking collision with Su-35S and MiG-31BM fighters patrolling the airspace with long-range missiles," Bronk explained. The article notes that the AIM-120B/C AMRAAM missiles, the primary armament of Ukrainian F-16s, simply do not have sufficient effective range (especially when launched from low altitudes) against high-speed, high-altitude targets like the Su-34 and Su-35S. Because of this, they cannot reliably destroy the Su-34 in the short period before bomb release or compete with the Russian R-37M missile used by the Su-35S.
As for the MICA missiles that the Mirage 2000-5 carries for air-to-air combat, the analyst notes that they likely have even a slightly shorter effective range in such conditions than the AIM-120C:
"However, the Meteor missile, thanks to its ramjet engine, retains significantly more energy over long distances. This means that, when used correctly, it has a much higher chance of successfully engaging the high-speed Su-34, as well as the Su-30 and Su-35 fighters."
The author believes that since Meteor missiles are not integrated into either the F-16 or the Mirage 2000-5, it is the Gripen C/D that offers the Ukrainian Air Force a unique opportunity to acquire a fighter that is truly capable of posing a threat to the Su-34.
"In the long term, this could force Russian aircraft to conduct combat sorties even deeper over Russian territory, which would make a significant portion of the frontline areas that are currently regularly subjected to glider bomb strikes significantly safer," Bronk writes.
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