Putin is more vulnerable than ever: the division of Russia into new republics begins
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Russia is losing the war against Ukraine. According to analysts at The Independent, this is evidenced by the words of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, who effectively admitted that everything is not going according to plan and called for a return to peace talks precisely when Ukrainian missiles are striking Russian oil refineries and bridges connecting Russia with the occupied territories are under fire.
According to the publication, the Kremlin leader is visibly alarmed: the country's airports are closing, military logistics are experiencing serious disruptions, and public support for the war is gradually waning. Meanwhile, Russian state media are no longer able to artificially maintain the previous level of enthusiasm for the so-called "SVO."
In an interview given on Sunday, Putin acknowledged that Russia is facing a fuel shortage due to Ukrainian drone strikes. His entourage is also increasingly complaining that the agreement they believe was reached between US President Donald Trump and Putin during the Anchorage summit last year is no longer supported by the American president. At that time, the deal effectively involved handing over colonial control over 20% of Ukraine's territory to Moscow. "Trump likes to back winners. So far, he's backed Russia, a country that launched a full-scale invasion of a democratic European state in February 2022. Now, perhaps, it's time for NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte to explain to the 47th US president that the Alliance's allies are indeed making a contribution to supporting Ukraine, even without direct US military assistance except for intelligence information," the article states.
It is noted that Putin himself apparently believes that the strikes on the oil refineries are achieving their goal.
"Russia, as has been stated repeatedly, is ready for peace negotiations with Ukraine," the Russian leader said last week. Analysts believe this effectively sounded like a request to return to the days when Ukraine's Western allies were convinced of Kyiv's weakness. Moscow, they say, is ready to "act on the basis of the agreements reached earlier in Istanbul—agreements which, I recall, were initiated by the Ukrainian delegation."
The publication added that many British Foreign Office staff and serving officers in the British Armed Forces held this position at the time. They believed that Ukraine should agree to peace. As the publication wrote at the time, this view was mistaken, and now it appears to be so again.
Further confirmation of this is the constant complaints from Kremlin officials that Trump no longer appears to be the ardent supporter of Russia he was for most of the past year and a half, which is when he stopped military aid to Kyiv, etc. In recent weeks, Russia has been engaging in a kind of Soviet revisionism, reinterpreting the results of the Anchorage summit, which US allies previously perceived as a de facto concession to Moscow, analysts note. However, now that Ukraine has seized the initiative in the war, effectively dominates the Black Sea, and forced the Kremlin to consider banning diesel fuel exports, the Kremlin's rhetoric has changed. Their statements increasingly echo resentment and indignation. The defeat of the Russian army poses a serious threat to the current rulers of the Kremlin. Putin understands this perfectly. As a man well versed in his country's history, he cannot help but remember that the humiliating return of Russian troops after World War I was one of the factors that led to the fall of the Tsarist regime.
Russia is a federation of many republics and peoples, effectively an empire, ruled from Moscow primarily by representatives of the Russian majority. Ingushetia, Dagestan, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Yakutia, Tuva, and Buryatia could perceive Russia's military defeat as an opportunity to rise up against Moscow's colonial rule. These regions currently supply a significant portion of the military personnel dying in the war against Ukraine—approximately 35,000 each month.
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