Is this game over for Keir Starmer? What Burnham win means for Labour | BBC News

Right now, I can't say to you with any confidence who will be the Prime Minister of the UK in a fortnight. You might be wondering, is this by-election result the final straw for Keir Starmer? Tonight could, just could, be the turning point. Andy Burnham may have won the Maker Bill constituency, but he won't necessarily walk straight into number 10. And while Keir Starmer appears to be losing allies left, right and centre, the Prime Minister claims he will fight any leadership challenge. I'm Jo Crawford and I'm here in the Maker Bill constituency to find out what's next for the Labour Party and if the so-called King of the North has what it takes to become the next Prime Minister. I'm not very happy with the result. I think it's phenomenal. It's the catalyst for change. But here's a really quick recap of everything that's happened so far. Keir Starmer swept to power in the 2024 general election with a landslide victory. But with Labour winning just over a third of the vote, this was the lowest share by a winning single-party government since World War II. Once in office, Starmer faced the challenge of a rising reform UK threat. From cuts to winter fuel payments to controversial welfare reforms, both of which led to U-turns, critics argued the government often appeared caught between competing audiences, holding onto Labour's traditional voters and Nigel Farage's growing support base. His appointment of Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US has continued to inflict damage as Mandelson's closeness to Jeffrey Epstein has emerged. But the real turning point came in the May election. Labour suffered a series of disappointing results while Reform UK made major gains, prompting a wave of frustration with the Prime Minister's leadership from within the party. Is it over for Keir Starmer? Is it over for Keir Starmer? Starmer responded by insisting he would not quit. The Maker Bill by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons, who said he stepped down to allow Andy Burnham the chance to challenge Keir Starmer's premiership. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting also resigned from cabinet, later suggesting he'd be prepared to trigger a leadership contest. And Angela Rayner's name has also been thrown into the ring as another potential contender. In a fresh blow to Starmer, his Defence Secretary John Healey also announced he had no other option but to resign, claiming that the Prime Minister's defence investment plan fell well short of what is required. In response, Starmer said he had a duty to stay on as Prime Minister. In the build-up to Maker Field, Starmer indicated he might promote Andy Burnham to a cabinet position if he won the by-election, warning him against launching an immediate challenge for leadership. I don't think there should be a challenge because I think that is a bad thing for the country. If there is a challenge, I intend to fight. But now Andy Burnham has won the Maker Field constituency, securing nearly 25,000 votes, beating Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by more than 9,000 votes. So what do locals here think of the result? I'm not very happy with the result. Andy Burnham hasn't done a lot for around a year. I think it's phenomenal. I think it's the catalyst for change. Well, it wasn't what I wanted originally. I voted Reform. But I'm a big believer in democracy, so Andy Burnham won, so fair enough. Great result. I was really worried. I thought it was going to be really close. But in the end, the people of Maker Field came through. Would you like to see Andy Burnham as the next Prime Minister? No, I wouldn't be happy with that. Because he's not for us, he's all for himself. Even from the very beginning, Andy Burnham's always been for himself. But would you prefer him over Keir Starmer or not? No. No. I think they're both as bad as each other. It's like if you're picking poo up in your garden, you don't move it from one place to another, do you? Andy should challenge him instantly. You know what I mean? And anybody else who wants to challenge Keir Starmer. And I think Keir Starmer would do the country a big favour if he did resign. But does this by-election result mean that Andy Burnham will be the next Prime Minister? Well, we don't know. Both Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting have said they would take part in any contest to replace Keir Starmer. And Wes Streeting has suggested he could trigger a leadership contest as soon as next week. But in order to do so, any contender would need the support of at least 81 Labour MPs. This now is the change moment. We have an opportunity to turn the tide, to make the country feel like it's working again. I met up with BBC political editor Chris Mason to find out what comes next after this by-election result. It's extraordinary, really, the scale of it. Because you look back at how reform did right here in those local elections at the beginning of last month, and they did incredibly well. And then you look at how Andy Burnham has done, and he's done incredibly well. So he can make an argument, and he is making an argument, to the Labour Party, because that's who he's talking to now. Which effectively amounts to, look, our big threat as a Labour Party is the threat from Reform UK, and Keir Starmer lost to Reform UK, and I can beat them. That was his argument here, and he's going to take that to Westminster. The twist is, back in those local elections, what were Reform campaigning on? They were saying vote Reform to get rid of Keir Starmer. What was Andy Burnham campaigning on in this by-election? I mean, he didn't say it in quite so many words, but it was the same thing. Vote for Andy Burnham and get rid of Keir Starmer. So therefore, to what extent is it necessarily an endorsement of him as an individual? And then also, clearly Andy Burnham is popular in Greater Manchester. There's sort of no doubt about that. But how popular can he be beyond Greater Manchester? That's the big open question. Starmer said that he would fight any sort of leadership challenge, so how do you think this is going to play out? So I've spoken to Keir Starmer twice in the last week, and he has said both times, and he's said again today, that he would stand in any contest. He's tried to put the bar as high as possible to his potential success, Andy Burnham being one of them, to sort of throw big obstacles in their way from standing. What does he actually choose to do? I mean, speaking to Andy Burnham's allies at this event today, they've been saying to us publicly that they want the Prime Minister to think long and hard over the weekend. That means they want him to resign. And they don't think a contest would be a good idea. They want Andy Burnham to become Prime Minister pretty quickly. I mean, maybe within the next week, even. Or some would argue maybe by the autumn, perhaps in some sort of managed process. Do others decide that they want to stand? Does the former Health Secretary say he wants to stand? He said he does. But could he beat Andy Burnham with the Labour Party membership and Labour MPs? Looks a bit of a tall order, particularly after the result here. So there's so many imponderables out there, and the honest answer to most questions that I get asked now is, I don't know. But what about the optics here for the public about another Prime Minister? Is this going to be another Tory 2.0? I've been in the BBC's custodianship for four years. I've had Boris Johnson as Prime Minister, Liz Truss as Prime Minister, Richard Sinak as Prime Minister, Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. And it looks now inevitable that relatively soon there'll be another one. Only one of those four actually did the conventional thing when you leave as Prime Minister, which is that you lose a general election. The others were all toppled by their own side. And it's going to happen to Keir Starmer. And the twist in all of this is that Keir Starmer's central argument since he became Labour leader all those years ago was that he hates the idea of chaos in politics. He hates the performative stuff. The, oh crikey, what are they doing in Westminster again, falling out with each other? And he's now at the centre of exactly that. And that is often really tricky for a political party because whoever becomes Prime Minister after Keir Starmer won't have a mandate from the country, from the electorate. Keir Starmer got that. Andy Burnham wouldn't have that. West Streeting wouldn't have that. And that's tricky for a new party. But I think Labour seem to be rapidly getting to the place that they'd rather twist than stick. Do you think this could play into the hands of Reform UK? But then on the other hand, we just had Burnham win make a deal by a significant margin over Reform UK too. So I think Reform UK, as and when there's a change of Prime Minister, will say, look, we always told you that Labour and the Conservatives were just the same. And there's the proof. Conservatives change leaders every 45 minutes and Labour are doing exactly the same. So I think that'll be an argument you hear from Reform. But from Reform's perspective, you know, there was three by-elections this week, not just the one here in Makerfield, but Aberdeen South and then Arbroath and Dorset Ferry, two Scottish seats. And if you look at the winners, Labour Party won a seat, the Conservative Party won a seat, the Scottish National Party won a seat. Reform UK didn't. And a seat like this one is the kind of seat they ought to be winning if they're going to win a general election. That said, Labour aren't going to find 650 Andy Burnhams to stand in loads of different seats, there's 650 seats in Parliament, and they wouldn't be able to deploy as many activists in every seat in an election where all the seats are being contested on the same day, i.e. a general election, as you can in a by-election. So, you know, let's see. But a party like Reform that is an insurgency and has proven that it can win and it can scare the life out of the Labour Party and the Conservative Party has to kind of demonstrate continuing momentum if they're going to do the extraordinary thing of going from being a very small party to winning a general election in five years. And that means carrying on winning. And actually, in these three races, three losses. And finally, if there is a new prime minister, can we expect a snap election? Again, a really good question to which the honest answer is I don't know. So often, when parties in government take on a new leader and the new leader becomes prime minister, often, but not always, they get a bit of a bounce in the opinion polls. People think, oh, this is a novelty and maybe they prefer the new person to the previous person. And then the new prime minister has a dilemma. So you've finally got... Gordon Brown had this dilemma in the best part of 20 years ago. You've finally achieved your lifetime ambition. You're living in Downing Street. You are the prime minister. But people are saying, well, we didn't vote for you. You don't have a mandate. You can't really do much that's different from what was in Labour's manifesto because that's what won them the election. Ah, should you have a general election? Do you roll the dice at that point? But if you do that, you risk the very thing you've, you know, fought so hard to get throwing it away in no time at all because maybe you lose that election. Equally, you'd be thinking, well, maybe reform aren't ready. Look at that bounce, if there is a bounce in the opinion poll. Now, Andy Burnham's team, I think, have been seeking to reassure Labour MPs that they are not tempted to call a snap election. Why would Labour MPs need reassuring about that? Well, there's an awful lot of them and the chances are whatever happens at the next general election, there will be fewer of them. In other words, some of them would lose their jobs. But we're a few steps ahead of where we are right now. But that is always a dilemma for a new incoming Prime Minister between general elections if they have a spike in popularity. So, let's see. Again, like so many of the questions at the moment, we simply don't know the answer. And I can't, right now, and this is, I've said this a few times in the last four years, and it's an extraordinary thing to say. Right now, I can't say to you with any confidence who will be the Prime Minister of the UK in a four month. I mean, what a sentence to say. So there we have it. Andy Burnham has won the Makefield seat and will return to Westminster as an MP. But just how long will it be until he takes the next big step towards number 10?