The fight for rent control in Massachusetts takes a curious turn

Organizers behind a rent control ballot question are extending an olive branch to skeptics. They say they're open to a deal on a rent cap law that's looser than the very strict measure they've been seeking to put before voters this November. Now, the big question, will Beacon Hill take them up on it? Evan Horowitz is the director of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts. Good morning. Good morning, Sharon. It's good to be here. Now, I follow this, and I find it a little confusing. So let's see if we can untangle these threads. It's a lot confusing. You're not the only one who finds it that way, and I'm happy to do my best to help untangle. Let's start with the original proposed ballot question, because it does help establish the stakes of this. What would the ballot question do, and how would it change housing in Massachusetts? Let's say the ballot question is still the live issue, right? That is working its way towards voters in November. It would establish statewide rent control, every city and town. It would limit rent increases basically to inflation, so no real rent increases anywhere. So it effectively imposes the tightest, by far, the tightest statewide rent control in the country. And the new plan, what they're calling a compromise plan that they floated last week, tell us about this. And this is, as you say, from proponents. See, the people who are behind the ballot question have now shared a compromise plan. Usually you expect the dynamics to be different. You expect the opponents to say, hey, hey, what if we meet you halfway? No, no, the proponents are saying, I mean, you called it an olive branch. I don't know how to characterize it. Is it an olive branch? Is it a sign of desperation? Whatever it is. They said, how about this? We have a new offer. Towns would be able to opt in or out, so it's not statewide. Forget the inflation bound for rents. No, no, no. You could have inflation plus 5%. The change here is quite dramatic. Usually when you go into a negotiation, you don't want to lead by conceding everything. Now, they haven't conceded everything, but they conceded way more than I would have guessed from a first compromise offer. It reflects either some growing anxiety about the likelihood of failure or some growing anxiety about success, right? It's one or the other. It's like, we fear this isn't going to work. We better get a compromise, or we're getting so much pressure that if it does work, it's going to be disastrous. We have to find a way to save face. Is the disastrous potential that it would put an end to new housing construction, is the disastrous potential that it would make landlords go broke? Yeah, I don't want to say from my perspective it's disastrous, but they may get the feedback of this. The dimensions of disaster are the ones you speak of. It will stop home building, which is, you know, we need new homes. So now state lawmakers have to decide essentially what to make of all this, and they're either going to reject this compromise rent control plan, or maybe they're going to pass it, and there are deadlines? Well, even this is really complicated because this is the pitch, not really to the legislature, but to opponents. If those groups can come together, then the legislature will say, great, great, we will ratify this, and you'll take it off the ballot. But all this has to happen very quickly, because by the time you get into July, end of July, the ballot stuff is baked in, and it will get to voters. So there is not a lot of time for a compromise to come together. Kevin Horowitz is executive director of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University. Thank you. Thank you for having me. We reached out to Homes for All Massachusetts, the group leading the rent control campaign. It says its compromise proposal comes from negotiations held with real estate industry leaders at the request of lawmakers. The group also argues the original language of the ballot question would not hamper housing construction because it includes carve-outs for new buildings.