Time To Sell Crypto - Warning Signs!

The AI boom continues to drive the market higher however warning signs are now starting to show. And the problem is crypto has already seen a nice correction and if stocks begin their next major correction then we'll likely be seeing a very sharp major sell-off in the crypto market. And so the big question is has the crypto winter actually finished or is there another major leg down coming our way? Okay so first up all eyes are on the S&P and the Nasdaq as AI continues to drive them to new all-time highs however is it all about to roll over? And so we are jumping in this time with the S&P 500 and just take a look at the most recent price action. It's been on an absolute incredible run in fact even if we go back a few years this is probably the sharpest ascent that we've seen for quite a long time and let's just take a measured move. So this one is now up about 20% and you can see how many weeks of green is this. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. This is now the ninth consecutive straight week up and you may have thought that this one was quite a big move here but you can see a green week, red week, green, green, green, green, red. It just doesn't compare to what has been going on. So no matter what headlines seem to be hitting S&P 500 is just driving to new all-time highs and the other one is the Nasdaq even more glorious. This one up from the bottom over 30% now 32% incredible move and so you'd think if everything was healthy and everything was going well then this would be rolling over to the crypto market as well. So let's just jump in. Well unfortunately Bitcoin not only is it down considerably from its all-time high, this last couple of weeks it's really been struggling and just in the last day alone a healthy 3% further down. So for me Bitcoin is a little bit like a leading indicator, it seems to dictate the direction before the stock market twigs on and the fact that it's struggling while the stock market is booming is a bit of a red flag to me and the question I have in my mind is if the stock market is booming setting all-time highs and Bitcoin is struggling and dropping this latest correction being over 10% down, what is going to happen if the stock market does a big healthy correction down? We can certainly see the crypto winter continuing and this is going to be retesting the local low here at $60,000 and potentially breaking and setting new lows. So for me it's not looking good in the crypto market right now. Now what could negate this? Well it would have to move considerably higher and probably take out this level here $98,500 but as I've said many times on this channel I think there's a big psychological barrier at $100,000. So for me this would be the line in the sand, the $100,000. If the Supercycle guys are correct, if everything is fine, if it's all about liquidity then we do need to move considerably higher. This is the line in the sand for me otherwise I am still in the bearish camp and if we look historically then the last crypto winter, it's the second half of the election year where the crypto market really struggles. So I'd have to say for me the four-year cycle still remains intact. This structural sudden drops and then most of the time going up, sudden drops and then most of the time it's going up, I'd say this looks like it's still in play. It looks like it's beginning to roll over and we're now in the second half of the year which is not really good for the crypto market historically. And so for me probability says we are likely coming down further and not breaking $100,000 any time soon. However happy to change my view if price action also follows. And speaking of the four-year cycle, this is one of my favourite charts in crypto, days from the halving and this is the cycle bottom chart. And I'm very happy because we now have a brand new colour being introduced being purple and this is now a new four-year cycle, era number five. Now for me the further you go back into crypto the least reliable the data is because this is when these cycles are going up 300x or 100x and I just don't think we're going to be seeing this kind of stuff ever again. So I'd normally just knock out probably the 2017 cycle as well and this is what I'll be looking at for most of this next cycle and as you can see we are just at the starting point. Now historically we're going to be bottoming out around this section here which is going to be towards the end of the year and even this one going from the Covid low where there was a ridiculous amount of money printing leading to this rally here. I don't think we're ever going to see such an epic move like that but we're now on almost day 700 from the halving and we've got probably another couple of hundred days if we're looking at the time-based factor which could easily be another six month this is going to take us into the end of the year. So to sum up it's crazy to think that the stock market is setting new all time highs and really similar to the dot-com the latest tech is AI which is driving this hysteria. The crypto market continues to struggle and the question mark is has the big rollover already begun? We soon shall see and that's pretty much how I see it this week.